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Met Winter 2016-17 Banter


dmillz25

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5 minutes ago, Paragon said:

ha they busted again.  Yesterday TWC was hyping up this storm for them.

They talked about it yesterday and quickly downgraded them to an advisory then nothing. 

This southward shift in the past couple days has been a little
surprising to say the least considering the monster totals
advertised on all the models and their ensembles at one point.
Suspect this is due to the very large upper low over Florida which
deamplified the eastern ridge and resulted in a flatter pattern,
sending the low eastward and taking a more southerly track. 
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7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

They talked about it yesterday and quickly downgraded them to an advisory then nothing. 


This southward shift in the past couple days has been a little
surprising to say the least considering the monster totals
advertised on all the models and their ensembles at one point.
Suspect this is due to the very large upper low over Florida which
deamplified the eastern ridge and resulted in a flatter pattern,
sending the low eastward and taking a more southerly track. 

Does this mean Chicago could get something out of this?

 

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20 minutes ago, Rjay said:

^^ not their fault at all but it doesn't hurt to do what they just did

Think how many times the models are off by a similar distance with general convection and lows that produce only rainfall. I guess when it's snow involved the public sometimes expects an unrealistic level of performance from the models. Even on this forum, there were 10 pages+ of response when the January 2015 blizzard shifted 50-60 miles further east than forecast. We got many fewer replies when a much greater magnitude event than forecast occurred with the Islip 13 inch + rainfall deluge back in 2014. Could you imagine how many pages of model bust posts we would have had if that was snow.;)

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Think how many times the models are off by a similar distance with general convection and lows that produce only rainfall. I guess when it's snow involved the public sometimes expects an unrealistic level of performance from the models. Even on this forum, there were 10 pages+ of response when the January 2015 blizzard shifted 50-60 miles further east than forecast. We got many fewer replies when a much greater magnitude event than forecast occurred with the Islip 13 inch + rainfall deluge back in 2014. Could you imagine how many pages of model bust posts we would have had if that was snow.;)

Wasn't it 13"+ in 2.5 hours?  I'd take a ~53" per hour snowfall rate. :bike::snowing:

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34 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Wasn't it 13"+ in 2.5 hours?  I'd take a ~53" per hour snowfall rate. :bike::snowing:

That was just a remarkable amount of heavy rain in such a short amount of time. I can remember all the flooding in Long Beach from 10"+ in under 12 hrs back in August 2011. Those downsloping driveways are the worst in Long Beach. Notice the freezer floating inside that garage.

 

81411fld2.jpg

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11 minutes ago, uncle W said:

climate change is a code word for control of you...this warmth is just as bad as the second half of February 1976...we were headed for an ice age back then...

The warmth is much more persistent now than in the 1970s. Winter 15-16 was the 2nd warmest on record, and this year is heading for 5th or 6th. We haven't had a below normal month in 20 months, almost two years straight. We've had dozens of +20 days but only a few -20 departures.

I don't think the degree of warmth is comparable. Of course, the jet stream is the immediate cause of any heat wave/extreme warmth, but the mild background state has made it much easier to break records. You look at the Northern Hemisphere and there's like three warm areas for every cold area. In terms of warm vs cold departures, you aren't tossing a fair die anymore...it's heavily weighted towards warmth, but of course cold still rolls once in a great while.

Can't wait for the cold front tomorrow night.

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7 hours ago, Rjay said:

Yea, there's nothing to these seemlessly non-stop extreme weather events and the constant record setting global temps.

You have to be blind not to see the writing on the wall lol.  I mean, here's an interesting geography lesson.  Remember all that amazingly hot Arctic for all these years being compared to a fire in one's attic?  Guess what happened to that fire.  Like all fires do, it spread.  Now it's reached the top floors of the house.  Now, we're a part of that torch that has been melting the Arctic.  You can't ignore all these +5, +7 and even +10 months that the northern tier of the country has been having since about 2010.  These +10 months are especially alarming.  They're becoming common now.  What we are seeing is the spread of the Arctic torch that started years ago now reaching our latitudes.  It was only a matter of time anyway.

Those knuckledraggers who choose to stick to fossil fuels should have all been sent to Venus a long time ago.  It would have fixed our carbon problem and our overpopulation problem at the same time.

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7 hours ago, Cfa said:

Having to bite your tongue when others mindlessly assert that this spring-like winter warmth is a product of climate change <

only if you shill for the fossil fuel cartel- I've had enough of those people and they can all be marooned on Venus for all I care- they belong there.

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