forkyfork Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 hi from sandy hook beach. i saw a seal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 Spring fever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: I believe they had 2" at the airport so nothing crazy Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Places just to the NW of LA had localized amounts over 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Question or your opinion: Do any of you guys things the rest of this winter is a bust. Deep down inside i feel by the middle of march we may have cone chance at substantial snow on Long Island but after looking hard at the pattern it seems it would take a lot of magic and a complete flip at this point. I think winter might be "over" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 14 minutes ago, marsplex said: Question or your opinion: Do any of you guys things the rest of this winter is a bust. Deep down inside i feel by the middle of march we may have cone chance at substantial snow on Long Island but after looking hard at the pattern it seems it would take a lot of magic and a complete flip at this point. I think winter might be "over" I don't think winter is over the next two weeks look warm but one of these cutters may become a swfl or even get a nor'easter out of it after march 1st. We'll have to see I still think we get another significant winter storm before spring really arrives in mid April. I think March and early April are Below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 6 hours ago, forkyfork said: hi from sandy hook beach. i saw a seal Cool. Looks like a fairly big one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 6 hours ago, forkyfork said: hi from sandy hook beach. i saw a seal Great shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 21 hours ago, EasternLI said: Jamstec ENSO update. Not very comforting in the long term. Yeah, this is what I saying earlier, just because next year could be an el nino, don't start getting hopes up about a lot of snow. Our winters depend way more on blocking than it does on ENSO. Get blocking at the right time and you'll do well regardless of ENSO state. I say that because we seem to be going towards a period of less blocking- but a caveat is that when we do get the blocking we have been capitalizing on it. So a warmer than normal winter with a couple of major storms sounds like a reasonable expectation. As long as we get the blocking at the right time, we'll get snow. That's what differentiates this period from the 80s and early 90s- our timing was so poor back then. But the lack of blocking as well as going into the cool phase of the AMO definitely fits in with that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 On 2/16/2017 at 9:22 AM, dmillz25 said: Crazy how Chicago is having a major ratter of a winter up to date Weird stat- Minneapolis has only hit 60 degrees four times in February prior to this year and they might hit it three times in this month alone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Since 1997 came up a lot today as the last time it was this warm on this date, I thought I'd do a short list of the biggest disappointments/busts ( we did one a few days ago of our greatest snowstorms, so this is the opposite.) For me in chronological order, they are: February 1989 (we were supposed to get 6-8 inches but got virga all day and ended up with nothing while ACY got nearly 20"; eastern LI picked up 2-5" that evening but I didn't even see a flake in Nassau.) I took the day off of school for it and was rewarded with overcast skies and nothing else. Later that calendar year- December 1989 also makes the list, the weirdest month in the weirdest winter I can think of- the coldest December I've ever seen and barely any snow, because this storm which was supposed to give us 4-8" developed a secondary too close to the coast and we had thunder with rain instead of thunder with snow. The prediction was for a big snowstorm right up until it started raining. Like the last one, not a single flake here that night. That one had me so upset I was throwing stuff around my room. DC got a lot of snow with it and so did areas to our north but again not us. (I would have included Vet Day 1987 in this list but since it was early in the season 2-4" of snow during the day was a nice event, even though DC got a lot more than we did and so did areas north of us.) The next one is the April 1997 Fools Day snowstorm, where 8-12 inches were predicted but the storm skipped our area and hit areas in Coastal NJ with 6-8 inches of snow and further north in New England up to 30"! We got a paltry 1-2 inches here. After that we have the notorious March 2001 Blizzard that wasn't and even NYC schools got shut down. We had rain and freezing rain that day that eventually did changeover to snow but we only got 4" to 5" of snow the next day, paltry compared to the predictions of 2 to 3 feet! Eastern LI ended up with about a foot and areas just north of us got much more. Then we have the failed (and last) Heavy Snow Warning that was such a bust that Heavy Snow Warnings were canceled after that. We did end up getting 1-2 inches here and the only nice thing about that storm was that it was snowing here (a little) while it was raining inland because of "heavier" rates here (if you can call it that)- that's something you hardly ever see (I screenshotted the ptype radar of it as proof)- but still 1-2 inches when 6-12 is predicted is a huge bust. The last one in this list of losers for me is February 2010 (the first storm) which dumped 2 feet of snow just to our south across Coastal NJ. There was a sharp cut off with it, and I got about 1-2 inches here, while NYC got not even a flake and southern Staten Island got 6 inches. The disappointment about that was dented a little when we capitalized on two events later that month and then we had a big winter the following year too. But if that storm had been just 50 miles further north, we would have gotten the two feet of snow Toms River got and it would have been our snowiest winter on record, like it was for Philly. But it wasn't and that event was foreshadowed by an earlier smaller event in late January that dumped 6 inches of snow south of us while we saw not a single flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Beautiful April day outside today. My car told me it was 68 degrees in Fresh Meadows, Queens, but it felt warmer in the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/18/2017 at 8:24 PM, tdp146 said: Cool. Looks like a fairly big one too. On 2/18/2017 at 8:32 PM, donsutherland1 said: Great shot. thx. it was a big fatty... maybe 5 or 6 feet long. i also saw a bald eagle and a huge flock of cedar waxwings. they are stunning birds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 to top it off i was at my parents' in springfield today and a bald eagle flew over the neighborhood while i was out on the deck with my dad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: to top it off i was at my parents' in springfield today and a bald eagle flew over the neighborhood while i was out on the deck with my dad Nice, I don't recall ever seeing a Bald Eagle over here. Tons of Redtails though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 9 hours ago, forkyfork said: to top it off i was at my parents' in springfield today and a bald eagle flew over the neighborhood while i was out on the deck with my dad Glad to see they are protecting them (all wildlife should be protected). Some jerk on NJ News was saying they should put them in cages and chop down the trees so developers can "develop." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 The first time I saw a bald eagle fly over my yard last year it was quite a rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Spring 3 weeks ahead of schedule over the Southeast. https://www.usanpn.org/data/spring In 2017, we see very large anomalies in the southeastern United States on the Spring Leaf Index map, where the Index was met up to three weeks earlier than what is typical for these locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Many locales in the CONUS are +7 to +10 on the month. Amazing coast to coast warmth. - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Many locales in the CONUS are +7 to +10 on the month. Amazing coast to coast warmth. Just heard this and it's pretty surprising- Chicago has had no snow now for 65 consecutive days- new record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: Spring 3 weeks ahead of schedule over the Southeast. https://www.usanpn.org/data/spring In 2017, we see very large anomalies in the southeastern United States on the Spring Leaf Index map, where the Index was met up to three weeks earlier than what is typical for these locations. This a really nice tool BW. Thank you for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Many locales in the CONUS are +7 to +10 on the month. Amazing coast to coast warmth. These +10 months have been occurring more often with BTV going +11 in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Many locales in the CONUS are +7 to +10 on the month. Amazing coast to coast warmth. Not surprising. Post a map or a link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 14 minutes ago, Rjay said: Not surprising. Post a map or a link. I edited...thx-feel free to delete this post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 42 minutes ago, bluewave said: These +10 months have been occurring more often with BTV going +11 in January. And BTV wasn't expected to be this warm, just like MSP wasn't expected to be. But it can still snow there with those kind of temp anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 49 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Many locales in the CONUS are +7 to +10 on the month. Amazing coast to coast warmth. - Looks like New England, Upstate NY, the west coast and parts of Montana, ID and ND are the only regions that got spared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 6 hours ago, Paragon said: Looks like New England, Upstate NY, the west coast and parts of Montana, ID and ND are the only regions that got spared. Yeah, pretty much the Northwest part of Montana has been the only cold spot there in February. Prior months, more of the state was BN. The widespread warmth is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: I edited...thx-feel free to delete this post Nice thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Interesting rogue cutoff forecast for South Florida this week down to nearly -5 SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I would like to make an announcement: snowman19 is a joke for saying winter is over! just look at march coming at you and even late February! this was GFS 12z 240 snowfall amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 3 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I would like to make an announcement: snowman19 is a joke for saying winter is over! just look at march coming at you and even late February! this was GFS 12z 240 snowfall amounts Do you know the meaning of irony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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