Met Winter 2016-17 Banter

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

the big PAC JET also churned up the pacific, negating our potential benefits with that warm blob of water.   Less warm water out there  and less ridging over the west and also less tendency for a -EPO...any EPO we got was quickly reversed back to a postive state.  

An atrocious outcome coupled with a continued +NAO and surprising +AO.    especially for the mid atlantic and ohio valley which has seen little to no snow.  NYC and north salvaged an ok snow winter

The October Pacific pattern did a good job telegraphing what happened during the winter. The world famous Ridiculously Resilient Ridge which delivered the cold

and snow here 13-14 and 14-15 made a cameo this year further west over the Aleutians. That's how California goes from record drought to flooding in just a few years.

 

[Paragon]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The October Pacific pattern did a good job telegraphing what happened during the winter. The world famous Ridiculously Resilient Ridge which delivered the cold

and snow here 13-14 and 14-15 made a cameo this year further west over the Aleutians. That's how California goes from record drought to flooding in just a few years.

 

Any idea if this will become more common going forward into the following winters, BW?  Where is the normal position of this ridge supposed to be?

[mophstymeo01]

I need to move to Nova Scotia.


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[weatherpruf]

My BIL just sent me a picture of his house in Maine, with drifts to the second floor, and a selfie of him giving the finger to the gods for dumping the snow. Remember, most people, even up there, don't like snow. Well he has a plow, you almost need one up there. 

[Cfa]

The difference between Queens/Nassau and Suffolk is quite stark in terms of the amount of snow left, the latter looks quite wintry still.

[Paragon]

9 hours ago, mophstymeo01 said:

I need to move to Nova Scotia.


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Moncton, New Brunswick or St John's, Newfoundland will do quite nicely too.

I checked a bunch of places on the east coast and you're far better off in Caribou Maine than you are in the Canadian Maritimes.  Caribou averages close to 300" of snow per year, while the Maritimes' average is only a little above 100"  Another positive about Caribou is they have some of the least levels of allergies of any city.

[Morris]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Moncton, New Brunswick or St John's, Newfoundland will do quite nicely too.

I checked a bunch of places on the east coast and you're far better off in Caribou Maine than you are in the Canadian Maritimes.  Caribou averages close to 300" of snow per year, while the Maritimes' average is only a little above 100"  Another positive about Caribou is they have some of the least levels of allergies of any city.

Caribou averages 109"

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, Paragon said:

Any idea if this will become more common going forward into the following winters, BW?  Where is the normal position of this ridge supposed to be?

Every winter in a new learning experience with these anomalous 500 mb blocking ridges. Last winter the big story for the West Coast was the

unusual ridge near Hawaii extending much further north than is normal for a super El Nino. So the heaviest STJ rain and snow was forced

further north than usual more like a La Nina. Parts of the PAC NW set new precip records surpassing earlier records set during La Nina years.

Notice how much stronger that ridge extending east from Hawaii was compared to the 97-98 super El Nino.

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-wettest-winter-in-seattle-history.html

Here are the record October 1-March 1 totals, with this year's total ending at 1:56 PM.

Water year to date (Oct 1-Mar 1)

1.    38.22 2015/16  (as of 1:56 PM)
2.    38.19 1998/99
3.    37.96 1950/51
4.    36.39 1995/96
5.    36.06 1955/56

This is a major record.

A plot of the cumulative precipitation at Seattle Tacoma Airport (below) shows that we now have about 13 inches more than normal in the water year, which is very large, of course.  The second figure shows the daily rainfall and the associated records each daily (green marks).   One is struck by the  high frequency of rain this winter and the fact that only a handful of days beat daily records.  Slow and steady won the race.

 

 

 

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, Morris said:

Caribou averages 109"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caribou,_Maine#Climate

 

Damn centimeters ;-)

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moncton#Climate

 

My confusion was because for Caribou they list centimeters in brackets, but for Moncton and St John's they list inches in brackets- blah- hnestly they should go with one or the other but not list both.  The math is easy enough to do.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._John's,_Newfoundland_and_Labrador#Climate

 

Out of that list, St John's is the best- but there's not much in it Caribou has 110" and St John's has 130"

The highest I could find east of the Mississippi is Houghton, Michigan, over 200 inches.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houghton,_Michigan#Climate

 

 

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Every winter in a new learning experience with these anomalous 500 mb blocking ridges. Last winter the big story for the West Coast was the

unusual ridge near Hawaii extending much further north than is normal for a super El Nino. So the heaviest STJ rain and snow was forced

further north than usual more like a La Nina. Parts of the PAC NW set new precip records surpassing earlier records set during La Nina years.

Notice how much stronger that ridge extending east from Hawaii was compared to the 97-98 super El Nino.

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-wettest-winter-in-seattle-history.html

Here are the record October 1-March 1 totals, with this year's total ending at 1:56 PM.

Water year to date (Oct 1-Mar 1)

1.    38.22 2015/16  (as of 1:56 PM)
2.    38.19 1998/99
3.    37.96 1950/51
4.    36.39 1995/96
5.    36.06 1955/56

This is a major record.

A plot of the cumulative precipitation at Seattle Tacoma Airport (below) shows that we now have about 13 inches more than normal in the water year, which is very large, of course.  The second figure shows the daily rainfall and the associated records each daily (green marks).   One is struck by the  high frequency of rain this winter and the fact that only a handful of days beat daily records.  Slow and steady won the race.

Wow, amazing!  All those other years are La Ninas and that makes number #1, a Super El Nino, really stand out!  How is the Pac NW doing with respect to rainfall this year?  Could be the greatest 2 year total they've ever had.  The snowfall this year has been above normal there too, which hasn't happened in many years.

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

 

 

 

[WeatherFeen2000]

Watch March 1st come in like a Lion 

[Juliancolton]

It seems like March snows have been hard to come by as of late. It's been several years since I've gotten more snow in March than April... maybe 2012-13?

[JerseyWx]

I like the optimism Feenster!  Like Julian said though, March hasn't been productive of snow in awhile, but perhaps this year will change that.

[Paragon]

33 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

It seems like March snows have been hard to come by as of late. It's been several years since I've gotten more snow in March than April... maybe 2012-13?

Personally, I like April snows better :-P

But the last snowy March we had was actually only two Marches ago- remember the really cold 2014-15 winter? We had almost 20" of snow in March and a single digit low on the last day of February, if it had been one day later it would have been an almost unprecedented single digit March low ;-)

 

[JerseyWx]

I'm up for a nice April snow, preferably early on.  After that, 75° and sunny please

[nzucker]

40 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Personally, I like April snows better :-P

But the last snowy March we had was actually only two Marches ago- remember the really cold 2014-15 winter? We had almost 20" of snow in March and a single digit low on the last day of February, if it had been one day later it would have been an almost unprecedented single digit March low ;-)

 

March 2013, 2014, and 2015 were all quite severe: cold and in some cases snowy. 2013 had the ocean low around 3/8 that gave the area 6-10", also just missed a huge storm on 3/24 of that year. 2014 was the coldest March on record in much of New England: we missed three storms to the south, all of which hit DC. 2015 had a 20" snowpack in Central Park achieved after a major storm to open the month....2/28 had a low of 2F that year. Most suburban areas had snow cover until 3/20 that year...

[Snowshack]

22 hours ago, Cfa said:

The difference between Queens/Nassau and Suffolk is quite stark in terms of the amount of snow left, the latter looks quite wintry still.

Still a solid 5-7" here, some snow patches here and there even on the roads.  At least we'll have a good week of continuous snowcover   

[Isotherm]

3 hours ago, nzucker said:

March 2013, 2014, and 2015 were all quite severe: cold and in some cases snowy. 2013 had the ocean low around 3/8 that gave the area 6-10", also just missed a huge storm on 3/24 of that year. 2014 was the coldest March on record in much of New England: we missed three storms to the south, all of which hit DC. 2015 had a 20" snowpack in Central Park achieved after a major storm to open the month....2/28 had a low of 2F that year. Most suburban areas had snow cover until 3/20 that year...

 

Yes, it has been December that's been terrible lately, not March. The last great December was 2010. 

[nzucker]

18 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Yes, it has been December that's been terrible lately, not March. The last great December was 2010. 

I think I may have been right in predicting that December would be the coldest month of this winter. It came in with a +0.8F anomaly at Central Park. February looks to finish near +5F given the ridge progged for next week. The colder December and warmer February occurred in many La Nina winters such as 1983-84, 2008-09, and 2010-11.

Although December was pretty atrocious in that the singular highlight was a 4" snow event that melted overnight, the cold blast centered in the 12/15-12/20 period was the most extreme of the winter with the PV passing through Maine and -25C 850s in the area. 

In reality, all the pattern changes this winter have been head fakes. There was a lot of interest in the 1/5-1/20 period; it produced a 6" snowstorm and 3 cold days, then quickly went above normal, allowing the month to finish over +5. Then, many thought the stratospheric warming and MJO wave would bring a wintry period 2/1-2/15...we did get a 10" snowstorm, and are just missing a MECS Thursday, but it's still way above normal temperatures with snow that melts quickly.

I'm wondering if March will produce the only sustained below normal stretch of the winter. Though winter loses some of its luster in March with the high sun angle, a good pattern 2/25-3/15 can put down a decent snow, and it's really only AFTER the 2nd week of March that the NYC area cannot hold any snow cover. We did fine with retaining snow cover in March 2015, and March 2014 was so cold that, if it had snowed, it would have stayed.

[Paragon]

31 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I think I may have been right in predicting that December would be the coldest month of this winter. It came in with a +0.8F anomaly at Central Park. February looks to finish near +5F given the ridge progged for next week. The colder December and warmer February occurred in many La Nina winters such as 1983-84, 2008-09, and 2010-11.

Although December was pretty atrocious in that the singular highlight was a 4" snow event that melted overnight, the cold blast centered in the 12/15-12/20 period was the most extreme of the winter with the PV passing through Maine and -25C 850s in the area. 

In reality, all the pattern changes this winter have been head fakes. There was a lot of interest in the 1/5-1/20 period; it produced a 6" snowstorm and 3 cold days, then quickly went above normal, allowing the month to finish over +5. Then, many thought the stratospheric warming and MJO wave would bring a wintry period 2/1-2/15...we did get a 10" snowstorm, and are just missing a MECS Thursday, but it's still way above normal temperatures with snow that melts quickly.

I'm wondering if March will produce the only sustained below normal stretch of the winter. Though winter loses some of its luster in March with the high sun angle, a good pattern 2/25-3/15 can put down a decent snow, and it's really only AFTER the 2nd week of March that the NYC area cannot hold any snow cover. We did fine with retaining snow cover in March 2015, and March 2014 was so cold that, if it had snowed, it would have stayed.

Well some have been predicting a March 1960 like comeback, so if we get that, the snow will definitely stay.

Funny thing about 2008-09, the biggest snowfall of the season was actually on March 1st and that was a la nina also.  We also had a decent February snowfall but the longest stretch of cold weather was in January.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, Paragon said:

Well some have been predicting a March 1960 like comeback, so if we get that, the snow will definitely stay.

Funny thing about 2008-09, the biggest snowfall of the season was actually on March 1st and that was a la nina also.  We also had a decent February snowfall but the longest stretch of cold weather was in January.

March can produce, but not usually in a meh winter in my experience. Besides my attention in March turns to other things, I'm not the kind of weather geek who is into other types of weather, so spring rainstorms don't impress me much. I also dread hot summers and stay inside most of the time. More often than not, March storms find a way not to perform for us, though I have seen a handful in my years. Even the March 93 superstorm, which managed record snows everywhere to our south, could only muster up 10 inches of snow sleet and freezing rain for us; had it not been for the several inches of ice on top, it would have been just another snowstorm around here, a big one but not historic.

[NJwx85]

Forecast here for Sunday is 61 and Sunny. Going to feel even warmer in the sun. I'll probably bust out the shorts for a few hours.

[Yanksfan]

Long range 6z GFS is stormy. Potential is there.

 

 

 

 

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Long range 6z GFS is stormy. Potential is there.

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Long range 6z GFS is stormy. Potential is there.

 

 

 

 

Lol

[bluewave]

The raging Pacific jet this winter continues to be one of the big stories with models hinting at a -6 SD storm event for SOCAL and Baja.

Could be the first time since 2010 that the the pressures over parts of SOCAL drop below 1000 mb. You can see the major downstream

ridge amplification in response over our area. Looks like the major MJO action is helping to shift an already more southward than normal

PACJET for La Nina even further south.

Daily contribution to SOI calculation-23.58

 

 

 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Could see a snow squall this afternoon

 

guess I picked a hell of a day to buy lion king tix for the wife and dinner at carmines...60+ this Sunday, gonna be gorgeous out 

[Stormlover74]

4 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

March can produce, but not usually in a meh winter in my experience. Besides my attention in March turns to other things, I'm not the kind of weather geek who is into other types of weather, so spring rainstorms don't impress me much. I also dread hot summers and stay inside most of the time. More often than not, March storms find a way not to perform for us, though I have seen a handful in my years. Even the March 93 superstorm, which managed record snows everywhere to our south, could only muster up 10 inches of snow sleet and freezing rain for us; had it not been for the several inches of ice on top, it would have been just another snowstorm around here, a big one but not historic.

91-92 we saw 80% of our snow in March

[NJwx85]

The Euro is even warmer going into the following weekend 60's at 00z on the 25th.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

91-92 we saw 80% of our snow in March

Both those March storms were pretty lame in our area, we didn't even have delayed openings at the district I was teaching in at the time. Not saying they weren't fun, but one at least mixed with rain. But hey I'd be thrilled to see that again.