Met Winter 2016-17 Banter

[Paragon]

19 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Might be late in the game,  but CFS showing an outstanding 22 BN days out of the next 30 day period.    This includes the longest BN stretch I have seen it produce in a long time, late Feb. to March 14 inclusive.    Looks 'inky blue' for a change at times, so remove the sun glasses and get out the ear muffs.   In mid-Jan this pattern would have both scared and delighted me!

We've had some big storms in that time period.  Think Feb 2010, March 1960, March 1888, March 1993, all occurred in the period between Feb 25 and March 15.

[Paragon]

Posted the dam live feed in here since it probably belongs in banter

 

[ForestHillWx]

The permanent drought conditions of California continue...

In all seriousness, the emergency overflow spillway has never been utilized since the dam was built in the 1960s. This is rapidly becoming a major disaster. 

California needs to plan for future episodes of extreme drought and subsequent periods of epic rain/snow. 

Good article about the flood of 1862 was in the Sacramento Bee the other day. 

[marsplex]

8 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Might be late in the game,  but CFS showing an outstanding 22 BN days out of the next 30 day period.    This includes the longest BN stretch I have seen it produce in a long time, late Feb. to March 14 inclusive.    Looks 'inky blue' for a change at times, so remove the sun glasses and get out the ear muffs.   In mid-Jan this pattern would have both scared and delighted me!

It did not seem that insane. It was BN but i feel it is not a sure bet going all the way out till middle march

[dmillz25]

Wow what a epic bust in SNE. Sounds familiar?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Yesterday was a very minor event snow and sleet wise fro NYC but at least the 3 airports went outside to measure, Central Park just couldn't be bothered. LGA 0.3, JFK 0.1 and EWR 0.1. We've all grown accustomed to it but it still doesn't make it right.

Just use the measurements at LGA for NYC official snowfall totals and you can still use the temperatures at Central Park for the official daily highs and lows. In the two years the Conservancy has taken over they have been at least the equal of the Zookeeper in under measuring if not worse.
 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

The permanent drought conditions of California continue...

In all seriousness, the emergency overflow spillway has never been utilized since the dam was built in the 1960s. This is rapidly becoming a major disaster. 

California needs to plan for future episodes of extreme drought and subsequent periods of epic rain/snow. 

Good article about the flood of 1862 was in the Sacramento Bee the other day. 

Another case of the modern 2000's climate rewriting the rules. The extreme precipitation this winter would have been expected during the 

the super El Nino last winter like 82-83 and 97-98. Instead we got this wild +PDO La Nina with strong blocking near the Aleutians forcing

the firehouse PACJET further south than expected.

 

 

 

[ForestHillWx]

Bluewave, understood that this year hasn't behaved like past winters with similar anticipate index values. The issue I have, IMHO, weather/climate is a chaotic system. While we can relatively determine the outcome of a given season, based on lead up parameters, i.e. ENSO values, PDO/AMO states, etc., we need to be prepared for when the weather does something unexpected.

In this case, the water authority was caught behind the eight ball. so to speak. They let the reservoir fill to near max capacity, before realizing they have 3 months to go before the winter snow melt, all the while being bombarded by an influx of Pacific moisture.

A similar, albeit smaller, situation occurred at the Jersey City reservoir during Irene. Below the reservoir was impacted at a higher degree, due to the water authority failing to respond to the conditions in time. When they did finally release the water from the reservoir, the Rockaway river responded.

 

[Mophstymeo]

Some pretty snowflakes in Flatbush.

Sent from my SM-G360T using Tapatalk

[Morris]

California can't catch a break. A weather pattern can overwhelm any change in climate for a period.

[Morris]

 

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, Morris said:

California can't catch a break. A weather pattern can overwhelm any change in climate for a period.

For the year LA's only 2" behind all of 2016 and ahead of 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015

[ForestHillWx]

Starting Thursday thru next Wednesday, there appears to be a train of storms about to pound NorCal again. They are currently releasing 100,000 cubic feet per second to keep up with the inflow.

The dam should hold, but the emergency spillway could have a blow out. I haven't calculated the force of the water pushing on the damn/spill way area, but once you have a fracture in a section of the earth works, the water will rapidly deteriorate the soil. Hopefully there was enough bedrock utilized in creating the emergency spill way area; look out below in any event.

 

[BxEngine]

i want another storm or 2. Then by the second week of march i want lots of rain, with sunny days mixed in. Then in april i want warm and sunny. 

 

Not too much to ask. 

[Paragon]

7 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Yesterday was a very minor event snow and sleet wise fro NYC but at least the 3 airports went outside to measure, Central Park just couldn't be bothered. LGA 0.3, JFK 0.1 and EWR 0.1. We've all grown accustomed to it but it still doesn't make it right.

Just use the measurements at LGA for NYC official snowfall totals and you can still use the temperatures at Central Park for the official daily highs and lows. In the two years the Conservancy has taken over they have been at least the equal of the Zookeeper in under measuring if not worse.
 

I wouldn't use the temps or wind speeds at NYC either, there are major issue with vegetation.

Just use the airport like every other city does and that keeps the record consistent.

 

[Paragon]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Another case of the modern 2000's climate rewriting the rules. The extreme precipitation this winter would have been expected during the 

the super El Nino last winter like 82-83 and 97-98. Instead we got this wild +PDO La Nina with strong blocking near the Aleutians forcing

the firehouse PACJET further south than expected.

 

 

 

Understood BW, but how did that impact our weather here?  Let's say we had a more typical La Nina pattern- would we have had more cold and snow because the jetstream would have been further north on the west coast thus more of a trough on the east coast?

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Paragon said:

Understood BW, but how did that impact our weather here?  Let's say we had a more typical La Nina pattern- would we have had more cold and snow because the jetstream would have been further north on the west coast thus more of a trough on the east coast?

The supercharged PAC JET flooded most of NOAM with mild Pacific air. But the strong Aleutian blocking occasionally dropped the EPO enough

for some transient cold here in December and January when we got those 2 snow events. This month we lucked out for the second winter 

in a row when the Kara block build back and dropped the AO resulting in another blizzard. The orientation of all the 500 mb features

with this La Nina resulted in a stronger PAC JET forced further south than normal for La Nina creating the serious flooding situation in California.

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The supercharged PAC JET flooded most of NOAM with mild Pacific air. But the strong Aleutian blocking occasionally dropped the EPO enough

for some transient cold here in December and January when we got those 2 snow events. This month we lucked out for the second winter 

in a row when the Kara block build back and dropped the AO resulting in another blizzard. The orientation of all the 500 mb features

with this La Nina resulted in a stronger PAC JET forced further south than normal for La Nina creating the serious flooding situation in California.

the big PAC JET also churned up the pacific, negating our potential benefits with that warm blob of water.   Less warm water out there  and less ridging over the west and also less tendency for a -EPO...any EPO we got was quickly reversed back to a postive state.  

An atrocious outcome coupled with a continued +NAO and surprising +AO.    especially for the mid atlantic and ohio valley which has seen little to no snow.  NYC and north salvaged an ok snow winter

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the big PAC JET also churned up the pacific, negating our potential benefits with that warm blob of water.   Less warm water out there  and less ridging over the west and also less tendency for a -EPO...any EPO we got was quickly reversed back to a postive state.  

An atrocious outcome especially for the mid atlantic and ohio valley which has seen little to no snow.  NYC and north salvaged an ok snow winter

This was an atrocious winter for Philly southward. I have 23 inches on the season so I about 4-5 inches below normal which isn't bad compared to areas to the south. We got lucky with all these snow events.

[Brian5671]

DCA is at 1.4 inches for the year....Ouch.

[Paragon]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The supercharged PAC JET flooded most of NOAM with mild Pacific air. But the strong Aleutian blocking occasionally dropped the EPO enough

for some transient cold here in December and January when we got those 2 snow events. This month we lucked out for the second winter 

in a row when the Kara block build back and dropped the AO resulting in another blizzard. The orientation of all the 500 mb features

with this La Nina resulted in a stronger PAC JET forced further south than normal for La Nina creating the serious flooding situation in California.

So besides ENSO the other difference on the east coast this year has been the lack of NAO blocking.  If we had a combo of an NAO block and the Kara block, that blizzard we just had might have been as prolific as the one we had last year.  The fast moving nature of this storm is what's made it not as epic as it could have been.

 

[Paragon]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This was an atrocious winter for Philly southward. I have 23 inches on the season so I about 4-5 inches below normal which isn't bad compared to areas to the south. We got lucky with all these snow events.

Not just Philly, but it's been horrible even north of there at Allentown.

Actually you are above normal snowfallwise because we aren't even halfway through February yet.  If the season ended right now and we got no more snowfalls, then you'd be 4-5 inches below normal.

[JerseyWx]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

DCA is at 1.4 inches for the year....Ouch.

Horrendous.  

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Not just Philly, but it's been horrible even north of there at Allentown.

Actually you are above normal snowfallwise because we aren't even halfway through February yet.  If the season ended right now and we got no more snowfalls, then you'd be 4-5 inches below normal.

The place to be this winter is New England and the lakes areas

[MJO812]

Anyway, lets all look at a webcam from Caribou

http://www.crownofmaine.com/members/nmain/

[Paragon]

18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The place to be this winter is New England and the lakes areas

Well Maine, Vermont or New Hampshire at any rate, not south of there lol.  Lake Effect is awesome, I don't know of a season when it wasn't regardless of how the rest of the country was doing lol.

[Paragon]

24 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Anyway, lets all look at a webcam from Caribou

http://www.crownofmaine.com/members/nmain/

Nice.  I loaded up Yowindow, you can see the weather from anywhere in the world on it and it's animated.  I have 228 locations saved on it, including Lake Tahoe, Mount Everest and Vostok, Antarctica lol.

Here's what the sunset from here looks like (it's surprisingly accurate, even the animated clouds look very realistic.)

 

[Paragon]

Here is a frame or two before that:

 

 

[Paragon]

Current frame

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

42 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The place to be this winter is New England and the lakes areas

Boston had a storm total of 3.7 inches for yesterday and today. Sometimes people look at the forecasts and not the results. Down east Maine was the big winner the last two days. The lakes around NY are having a nice year.