Met Winter 2016-17 Banter

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, Hailstorm said:

Based on the fact that Isotherm has not posted his thoughts about the second half of February for about a week and from bluewave's very pessimistic post today, NYC is going to experience another 2007-2008 styled winter as the end result. New England continues to cash in at our own expense, which is very depressing to experience.

It is never a good thing when the Euro is alone in showing a snowstorm for us six days out. It is almost guaranteed that tonight's 0z run will show a whiff out to sea.

And it is a damn travesty that NYC can't even retain snow cover for more than 3 days for the past 2 years, and our snow cover from yesterday is no exception to this rule.

All of the snow in the city is black within six hours anyway.

[psv88]

12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

All of the snow in the city is black within six hours anyway.

racist.

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

racist.

Wrong forum

[Uniblab]

32 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

All of the snow in the city is black within six hours anyway.

In Manhattan anyway. 

[Hailstorm]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

What did I post that was pessimistic? First, many spots have already reached their normal seasonal snowfall early like JFK and ISP is at 31.5".

This current window for snow stays open through the storm potential later next week and then we get a thaw or relaxation for a time.

I don't think you could have asked for a better snowfall outcome this winter for how mild it has been with so few cold days.

I was disheartened when I took a glance at the map you posted, which is not encouraging to look at:

And I also stumbled upon this graphic from the 12z Euro which is very agonizing to look at. We all would experience a record-shattering furnace that surpasses February 2012 if this comes to fruition. All of Canada is devoid of cold, which would render it impossible for the pattern to turn colder again in March.

Don't get me wrong; yesterday's snow event was good to experience; however, NYC should be cashing in on this weekend's storm as well in order to capitalize on this winter and build a long-lasting snow pack.

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

good lord dude-hit the showers for awhile.

yes, it's been a mild winter...quite mild when you look at the departures to date.  Most forecasts were not this mild, I get it, I was expecting a much colder winter than we've had.   However, we're lucky to have had the snows we've had.  You could get a 01-02 or 11-12 ratter with temps this warm.

You're complaining that that Euro is the only model with a storm?   I'd agree with the statement if the one model was the CMC or some other garbage model.   The GFS is not that far from the Euro, BTW

 

The Euro has been slumping for the past two years; therefore, I do not want to see posters defend it even if it continues to show a KU for NYC during the next few days while the rest of the models show a whiff.

Furthermore, how many times has NYC seen two 10"+ storms within a week of each other? Virtually none, I'd wager.

It is also not reassuring that parts of New England have seen 47" of snow this season; and will likely crack 60" when this weekend is over. This is the definition of extreme snowfall inequality, akin to the ratio that NYC experienced in 2007-2008.

[NJwx85]

11 minutes ago, Uniblab said:

In Manhattan anyway. 

In most sections of Brooklyn too, which is where that poster is from. 

[ag3]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

In most sections of Brooklyn too, which is where that poster is from. 

Queens has plenty of suburban areas like Bayside, Whitestone, Douglaston, Little Neck, Fresh Meadows, North Flushing, Forest Hills, etc.

Hilly and full of trees.

Snow looks great today here.

[Hailstorm]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

In most sections of Brooklyn too, which is where that poster is from. 

During 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, I had a snow depth of at least 6" for 50 consecutive days. And the pack was not tainted "black" or "yellow" at all. Some sections were bulletproof hard.

[Snowlover11]

new england wins again with snow. christ.

[NJwx85]

8 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Queens has plenty of suburban areas like Bayside, Whitestone, Douglaston, Little Neck, Fresh Meadows, North Flushing, Forest Hills, etc.

Hilly and full of trees.

Snow looks great today here.

Okay, where did I mention Queens? Not that Queens doesn't have plenty of urban jungles too, but I'm very famililar with the area.

[ag3]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Okay, where did I mention Queens? Not that Queens doesn't have plenty of urban jungles too, but I'm very famililar with the area.

Doubt it. Most aren't familiar with how suburban Northern and NE Queens can be. Especially NE Queens on the border with Nassau.

There's also some elevation here, especially in Bayside Hills.

 

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, Hailstorm said:

During 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, I had a snow depth of at least 6" for 50 consecutive days. And the pack was not tainted "black" or "yellow" at all. Some sections were bulletproof hard.

I can't remember specifics that far back, but if it's the Winter that I'm thinking of, we had snow cover from December until the end of February here too.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

Doubt it. Most aren't familiar with how suburban Northern and NE Queens can be. Especially NE Queens on the border with Nassau.

There's also some elevation here, especially in Bayside Hills.

 

I have a Sister that went to St Johns Law and I have tons of family burried at Mt. Hebron Cemetary. My Sister lives out in Smithtown so I drive through that part of Queens whenever I take the Cross Bronx.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, Hailstorm said:

I was disheartened when I took a glance at the map you posted, which is not encouraging to look at:

 

And I also stumbled upon this graphic from the 12z Euro which is very agonizing to look at. We all would experience a record-shattering furnace that surpasses February 2012 if this comes to fruition. All of Canada is devoid of cold, which would render it impossible for the pattern to turn colder again in March.

 

Don't get me wrong; yesterday's snow event was good to experience; however, NYC should be cashing in on this weekend's storm as well in order to capitalize on this winter and build a long-lasting snow pack.

The Euro has been slumping for the past two years; therefore, I do not want to see posters defend it even if it continues to show a KU for NYC during the next few days while the rest of the models show a whiff.

Furthermore, how many times has NYC seen two 10"+ storms within a week of each other? Virtually none, I'd wager.

It is also not reassuring that parts of New England have seen 47" of snow this season; and will likely crack 60" when this weekend is over. This is the definition of extreme snowfall inequality, akin to the ratio that NYC experienced in 2007-2008.

Our winter weather pattern for 15-16 and 16-17 has been mild with wild snowstorms thrown into the mix. So don't get disappointed if the models show

a milder pattern again following the blizzard yesterday and the winter storm potential next week. This mild and snowy pattern has been becoming more 

common since about the 04-05 winter. Remember the record warmth in early January 2005 before switching to record cold and snow during the 

second half of the month. The very next winter in 05-06 we saw record January warmth followed by the record February blizzard. We also had a 

very mild first half of the 12-13 winter before the big February blizzard. So just adjust you expectations what what you consider to be

a normal winter in this new era and you'll be very happy with the snowfall outcomes. 

 

 

 

[BombsAway1288]

37 minutes ago, Hailstorm said:

I was disheartened when I took a glance at the map you posted, which is not encouraging to look at:

And I also stumbled upon this graphic from the 12z Euro which is very agonizing to look at. We all would experience a record-shattering furnace that surpasses February 2012 if this comes to fruition. All of Canada is devoid of cold, which would render it impossible for the pattern to turn colder again in March.

Don't get me wrong; yesterday's snow event was good to experience; however, NYC should be cashing in on this weekend's storm as well in order to capitalize on this winter and build a long-lasting snow pack.

The Euro has been slumping for the past two years; therefore, I do not want to see posters defend it even if it continues to show a KU for NYC during the next few days while the rest of the models show a whiff.

Furthermore, how many times has NYC seen two 10"+ storms within a week of each other? Virtually none, I'd wager.

It is also not reassuring that parts of New England have seen 47" of snow this season; and will likely crack 60" when this weekend is over. This is the definition of extreme snowfall inequality, akin to the ratio that NYC experienced in 2007-2008.

Huh, really? First of all, like many have said, this winter could of really sucked in the snowfall department being how mild it's been. IMO we have over performed. Second, not every winter is going to be like 2013 and 2014 or whatever those two great winters were. This is NYC area, not Quebec. And not every winter is going to have consecutive weeks of snowcover. Once again, NYC, not Canada. And third, in terms of New England, it's called climo. They normally get more than us. I remember many a year when they were way ahead of us in snowfall at this time. Before yesterday, they were more below normal than us and IMO having a worse winter (at least Logan was). 

You're acting like we're in DC. Now they have had a bad winter but once again, climo. I'm not exactly sure what else more you're expecting. I think bluewave is right, time to lower your expectations.

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, ag3 said:

Queens has plenty of suburban areas like Bayside, Whitestone, Douglaston, Little Neck, Fresh Meadows, North Flushing, Forest Hills, etc.

Hilly and full of trees.

Snow looks great today here.

Snow looks good in Battery Park City too.

[Brian5671]

Long lasting snowpack in NYC?  That's not climo around here...that's climo for Caribou ME.   NYC averages 30 inches of snow a season for argument's sake, that's not going to be a wall to wall pack except in the craziest of years like 95-96, 14-15 etc.

[Paragon]

On 2/9/2017 at 9:55 PM, Juliancolton said:

Well snow measuring is inherently an inexact science, and more than a little subjective. Anything that attempts to standardize the methodology is a good idea. I'd rather be confident in the strict accuracy of my total than feel obliged to corroborate a report from Joe the Plumber who woke up four hours after the storm ended and stuck a ruler in the top of his truck that was parked in the shade of a building.

Correct, that's why I propose we use three methods and average out the three.  One is snow depth, the other is the every 6 hr snow board method and the third is liquid equivalent with a specific ratio applied based on the average temperature during the storm.

With the January blizzard last year (I use this one because this is the only one for which I remember all three numbers somewhat) JFK had 28" snow depth 2.94" LE and 30.7" snow measured.  If we just used the snow depth, the ratio would have seemed to be less than 10:1 which it clearly wasn't- the temperature was in the 20s during most of the storm.

Someone please correct me if any of the three figures I mentioned above are wrong, I'm going off the top of my head with them.

[Paragon]

On 2/9/2017 at 10:06 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

 

 

You should contact NWS, ask them to re-write their guidelines...I'm sure they'll take your Stanley Tape measure method into account lol

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/coop/reference/Snow_Measurement_Guidelines.pdf

 

 

Lmao..... #riggedmeasurements

 

everything seems to be rigged these days ;-)

[Paragon]

15 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Long lasting snowpack in NYC?  That's not climo around here...that's climo for Caribou ME.   NYC averages 30 inches of snow a season for argument's sake, that's not going to be a wall to wall pack except in the craziest of years like 95-96, 14-15 etc.

Don't forget 2010-11, although it didn't make it far into February, it was amazingly consistent from December through the second week of February.

[Paragon]

18 hours ago, psv88 said:

Most people dont realize that ISP is actually further north than LGA and 15 miles further north than JFK. The airport itself is located in Ronkonkoma, almost 5 miles north of the Great South Bay, almost mid-island. The name Islip airport is a bit deceiving. 

I think being east also has a lot to do with it- being closer to bombing out storms.  I'll wager that places like Fire Island and Westhampton Beach also have above normal snowfall.  Too bad we don't keep records out there- although I do remember that Bridgehampton does.  Anyone have the totals for them?

 

[Paragon]

18 hours ago, uncle W said:

so far this season the analogs that were weak la nina or weak negative after an el nino have three that stand out...They weren't that cold and you can say they were mild...snowfall was good all three years...All three years had a major storm...those years are 1959-60, 1992-93, and 2005-06...we are running close to 2005-06 for average temperature and lowest winter minimum...both 14 as of today...snowfall was 30"-40" in 2005-06 across the area...We could end up with that amount especially if we get another storm like yesterday...

Using your numbers I came up with a median of 30" or so for NYC- let's see if we can reach that number by the end of the season, I think we can.  Didn't NYC reach 30" last winter too (most of it in one storm.)

[Paragon]

16 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Huh, really? First of all, like many have said, this winter could of really sucked in the snowfall department being how mild it's been. IMO we have over performed. Second, not every winter is going to be like 2013 and 2014 or whatever those two great winters were. This is NYC area, not Quebec. And not every winter is going to have consecutive weeks of snowcover. Once again, NYC, not Canada. And third, in terms of New England, it's called climo. They normally get more than us. I remember many a year when they were way ahead of us in snowfall at this time. Before yesterday, they were more below normal than us and IMO having a worse winter (at least Logan was). 

You're acting like we're in DC. Now they have had a bad winter but once again, climo. I'm not exactly sure what else more you're expecting. I think bluewave is right, time to lower your expectations.

2007-08 is a really bad comparison.  We've already had three bombing noreasters this season, two of which delivered heavy snow to the area, that season didn't even have a single coastal storm.

[Paragon]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

Our winter weather pattern for 15-16 and 16-17 has been mild with wild snowstorms thrown into the mix. So don't get disappointed if the models show

a milder pattern again following the blizzard yesterday and the winter storm potential next week. This mild and snowy pattern has been becoming more 

common since about the 04-05 winter. Remember the record warmth in early January 2005 before switching to record cold and snow during the 

second half of the month. The very next winter in 05-06 we saw record January warmth followed by the record February blizzard. We also had a 

very mild first half of the 12-13 winter before the big February blizzard. So just adjust you expectations what what you consider to be

a normal winter in this new era and you'll be very happy with the snowfall outcomes. 

 

 

 

I think he doesn't remember how many 10" storms we've had, and yes some in back to back weeks lol.

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Don't forget 2010-11, although it didn't make it far into February, it was amazingly consistent from December through the second week of February.

We did very well in the extended snowpack department when we got some cold to work with in 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15.

I can still remember the never ending snow piles dumped near the boardwalk in Long Beach between Edwards and Riverside in Long Beach.

 

 

 

[Paragon]

Yes, that was my max snowfall depth that I can remember, coming from a total of three pretty big storms.  It could have been even better if the middle one bombed out a bit earlier, as the big totals really started in the central part of LI- I think that storm really bombed out near MTP or just east of there.

BTW the 29" total you mentioned from Meriden, CT from that event, is that an official airport total?

Also, what is the maximum total you found on Long Island or CT from the February 2013 blockbuster that missed NYC just to the east with the heaviest totals?  I seem to recall that parts of Long Island (Like Farmingville and Medford) and CT got close to 40"?  Thanks

[uncle W]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We did very well in the extended snowpack department when we got some cold to work with in 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15.

I can still remember the never ending snow piles dumped near the boardwalk in Long Beach between Edwards and Riverside in Long Beach.

 

 

this is my research numbers for snow depth...my method is any day there was a snowflake in the air a trace is recorded...If it snowed 1" and was washed away a hour later by changing to rain 1" is recorded...it is not a set hourly method...I believe snow depth is recorded 6 or 7am...It wasn't always like that...I think it was midnight at one point...my numbers should be higher doing it this way...I had to estimate or use LGA numbers where Central Park did not measure snow depth...

snow depth days...T= trace...

season........Days ...............consecutive days....Max depth..
...................T 1" 4" 10"20"........ T 1" 4" 10"20"

1913-14......57 32 22 06 0....... 34 30 14 04 0..... 13"
1917-18......84 57 29 00 0....... 68 30 16 00 0..... 09"
1919-20......92 67 36 02 0....... 61 55 28 02 0..... 12"
1922-23......71 54 22 00 0....... 24 19 06 00 0..... 08"
1925-26......65 33 16 06 2....... 30 23 15 05 2..... 20"
1933-34......71 47 28 06 0....... 32 16 12 04 0..... 13"

1934-35......68 36 20 06 0....... 23 22 19 06 0..... 17"

1935-36......84 51 19 00 0....... 52 42 13 00 0..... 09"
1940-41......56 27 08 01 0....... 14 12 04 02 0..... 13"
1947-48......83 65 54 33 5....... 65 58 53 16 5..... 26"
1948-49......50 30 17 03 0....... 11 10 10 03 0..... 14"
1949-50......29 09 00 00 0....... 03 03 00 00 0..... 03"

1950-51......45 13 00 00 0....... 16 04 00 00 0..... 03"
1951-52......40 14 02 00 0....... 06 04 01 00 0..... 06"
1952-53......38 08 01 00 0....... 07 03 01 00 0..... 04"
1953-54......32 14 10 00 0....... 16 11 10 00 0..... 09"
1954-55......35 13 00 00 0....... 06 04 00 00 0..... 03"
1955-56......51 20 08 02 0....... 11 08 07 02 0..... 13"
1956-57......52 18 04 00 0....... 11 06 02 00 0..... 06"
1957-58......69 37 17 01 0....... 23 09 06 01 0..... 10"
1958-59......45 19 01 00 0....... 12 10 01 00 0..... 05"
1959-60......61 27 10 06 0....... 13 09 06 04 0..... 15"

1960-61......77 52 41 20 3....... 38 32 30 10 3..... 24"
1961-62......59 26 04 00 0....... 17 10 03 00 0..... 06"
1962-63......62 23 07 00 0....... 13 11 07 00 0..... 04"
1963-64......76 42 21 05 0....... 27 14 08 05 0..... 13"
1964-65......58 31 06 00 0....... 28 13 03 00 0..... 06"
1965-66......38 23 09 00 0....... 24 19 07 00 0..... 07"
1966-67......64 34 16 05 0....... 16 10 08 05 0..... 13"
1967-68......44 23 01 00 0....... 15 15 01 00 0..... 06"
1968-69......55 33 20 08 0....... 32 24 17 07 0..... 15"
1969-70......71 47 08 00 0....... 39 35 04 00 0..... 06"

1970-71......58 11 03 00 0....... 20 04 03 00 0..... 06"
1971-72......60 21 06 00 0....... 12 08 03 00 0..... 05"
1972-73......30 03 00 00 0....... 03 02 00 00 0..... 02"
1973-74......57 38 07 00 0....... 20 17 07 00 0..... 06"
1974-75......35 10 03 00 0....... 06 05 03 00 0..... 08"
1975-76......41 27 03 00 0....... 12 08 02 00 0..... 04"
1976-77......69 47 09 00 0....... 53 37 07 00 0..... 06"
1977-78......94 56 30 12 0....... 67 35 20 06 0..... 18"
1978-79......42 23 09 03 0....... 18 17 04 03 0..... 16"
1979-80......36 10 01 00 0....... 07 03 01 00 0..... 04"

1980-81......49 27 05 00 0....... 25 21 03 00 0..... 08"
1981-82......48 24 12 01 0....... 17 17 08 01 0..... 10"
1982-83......34 22 10 06 0....... 18 16 09 06 0..... 19"
1983-84......54 28 12 00 0....... 17 16 06 00 0..... 07"
1984-85......44 25 10 00 0....... 31 13 09 00 0..... 07"
1985-86......41 15 08 00 0....... 14 12 06 00 0..... 06"
1986-87......49 31 12 00 0....... 19 17 11 00 0..... 09"
1987-88......49 31 10 00 0....... 18 16 09 00 0..... 09"
1988-89......23 07 02 00 0....... 04 03 02 00 0..... 05"
1989-90......46 16 02 00 0....... 06 04 02 00 0..... 05"

1990-91......27 13 06 00 0....... 04 04 02 00 0..... 08" Feb. LGA obs...
1991-92......36 11 02 00 0....... 07 04 02 00 0..... 06"
1992-93......49 21 06 01 0....... 10 09 05 01 0..... 10"
1993-94......95 74 31 08 3....... 76 40 13 08 3..... 22"
1994-95......33 15 12 01 0....... 16 15 12 01 0..... 10"
1995-96......72 55 35 14 6....... 18 17 12 10 6..... 25" LGA obs...
1996-97......35 08 00 00 0....... 04 02 00 00 0..... 03" LGA obs...
1997-98......27 02 01 00 0....... 03 02 01 00 0..... 04" LGA obs...
1998-99......29 10 01 00 0....... 04 03 01 00 0..... 04" LGA obs...
1999-00......40 23 08 00 0....... 24 19 05 00 0..... 06" LGA obs...

2000-01......57 33 17 02 0....... 18 16 11 02 0..... 13" LGA obs...
2001-02......22 03 00 00 0....... 04 03 00 00 0..... 03" LGA obs...
2002-03......71 42 23 05 1....... 26 25 12 05 1..... 20" LGA obs...
2003-04......50 36 20 02 0....... 28 25 08 01 0..... 11" LGA obs...
2004-05......59 41 20 02 0....... 22 16 13 02 0..... 10" LGA obs...
2005-06......32 19 06 03 1....... 12 12 05 04 1..... 16" LGA obs...
2006-07......31 15 02 00 0....... 07 05 02 00 0..... 05"
2007-08......30 08 04 00 0....... 04 04 04 00 0..... 06"
2008-09......47 32 07 00 0....... 06 06 03 00 0..... 08"
2009-10......45 29 23 08 1....... 15 12 11 04 1..... 21"

2010-11......69 58 45 23 3....... 54 54 27 16 2..... 23"
2011-12......14 05 01 00 0....... 03 03 01 00 0......04"
2012-13......38 15 08 02 0....... 07 05 05 02 0......10"

2013-14......80 64 45 16 0....... 49 49 33 14 0......18"

2014-15......70 59 47 19 0....... 50 50 45 18 0......19"

2015-16......32 12 09 04 2....... 12 10 09 04 2......22"

2016-17......20 12 04 00 0....... 05 05 02 00 0......09" as of 2/10

.......................................................................................

deepest snow cover...

26" Dec. 1947

24" Feb. 1961

23" Jan. 2011...2010-11 had two periods with 20" on the ground...

22" Feb. 2006 est.

22" Jan. 2016

21" Feb. 2010

21" Mar. 1888

20" Jan. 1996 est.

20" Feb. 2003

20" Feb. 1926

20" Feb. 1899 est.

19" Feb. 1983

19" Mar. 2015

18" Feb. 1978

18" Feb. 2014

[bluewave]

Uncle, tremendous list. Thanks for the addition. I found this site recently where you can set the various parameters.

http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

[uncle W]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Uncle, tremendous list. Thanks for the addition. I found this site recently where you can set the various parameters.

http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

I have printed climate data I got back in the 1980's and 90's...I used to go to the Weather Bureau in the Rockefeller Center before it moved to upton...I would look over past records and write down the info...I was at Upton once for a tour and looked up some past weather from the sauce...The Utah climate center is help full but for some reason it has a lot of missing data...When I printed the info in 2002 it did not have that much missing data...reading about the storms from the 1800's gives me an idea of what happened and how much snow was around after it ended...It even has the times when they started, changed over and ended...

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I have printed climate data I got back in the 1980's and 90's...I used to go to the Weather Bureau in the Rockefeller Center before it moved to upton...I would look over past records and write down the info...I was at Upton once for a tour and looked up some past weather from the sauce...The Utah climate center is help full but for some reason it has a lot of missing data...When I printed the info in 2002 it did not have that much missing data...reading about the storms from the 1800's gives me an idea of what happened and how much snow was around after it ended...It even has the times when they started, changed over and ended...

I still remember attending a meeting and getting a tour of the NWS office at 30 Rock back in the 1980's. It was great to finally meet the people who were the

voices of NOAA weather radio which I listened to every day since the 70's.

 

I did a tour of OKX back in the 90's shortly after they moved out there. All the workstations and especially the doppler console was really cool to see in person.

There appeared to be a section of binders with old weather records near where you come in to the office.