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Met Winter 2016-17 Banter


dmillz25

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15 minutes ago, danstorm said:

The most boring winter since 11-12 looks more and more to be going out with a whimper.  

11-12 was better for my area up in Rockland, we actually had more snow that winter. This winter is reminiscent of 01-02. Last winter would have been horrific had it not been for the record blizzard and the one severe arctic cold snap. When all is said and done next month, I think this winter ends up right up there with the worst winters of all time. I think it will rival 97-98, 01-02, 11-12

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This was just in the southeast forum.  Assuming the ENSO models are right we have an El Niño next winter.  If the QBO is positive we have 2 distinct analog groups.  For whatever reason the early 90s El Ninos behaved oddly so I'm saying we toss that group and assume the 2nd batch of analogs.  

IMG_4120.PNG

 

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Here at the PAC SST differences

 

 

Screen Shot 2017-02-03 at 4.52.09 PM.png

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40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

11-12 was better for my area up in Rockland, we actually had more snow that winter. This winter is reminiscent of 01-02. Last winter would have been horrific had it not been for the record blizzard and the one severe arctic cold snap. When all is said and done next month, I think this winter ends up right up there with the worst winters of all time. I think it will rival 97-98, 01-02, 11-12

We did better down here than those winters.

Seasonal snowfall JFK...23.8" avg

97-98...3.6"

01-02...4.5"

11-12...3.7"

16-17...15.0" so far

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We did better down here than those winters.

Seasonal snowfall JFK...23.8" avg

97-98...3.6"

01-02...4.5"

11-12...3.7"

16-17...15.0" so far

Up here it's been pretty bad, you guys actually fared better down there. We have literally not had as much as a full week of snowcover since December 1st. The lakes up here never even completely froze over, which is extremely unusual. Bare ground almost the entire winter. Our "biggest" snowfall was 4 inches (barely) back in December.  It honestly reminds me of 01-02, up here at least

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Up here it's been pretty bad, you guys actually fared better down there. We have literally not had as much as a full week of snowcover since December 1st. The lakes up here never even completely froze over, which is extremely unusual. Bare ground almost the entire winter. Our "biggest" snowfall was 4 inches (barely) back in December.  It honestly reminds me of 01-02, up here at least

even down here on the coast, it's amazing the lack of ice or frozen ground.... last weekend we were out in the woods and the lake, creek, everywhere, no snow or ice to be found not even in the shady spots where the sun never gets to.   usually there's something in late January.   We've lucked out to get 4 storms here, 12/17, 1/7, 1/14 and 1/31 which have given us 17 inches of snow.  Amazing for a winter with so few true cold days.

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22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

even down here on the coast, it's amazing the lack of ice or frozen ground.... last weekend we were out in the woods and the lake, creek, everywhere, no snow or ice to be found not even in the shady spots where the sun never gets to.   usually there's something in late January.   We've lucked out to get 4 storms here, 12/17, 1/7, 1/14 and 1/31 which have given us 17 inches of snow.  Amazing for a winter with so few true cold days.

I'm at just over 7 inches of snow, total, for this winter up to this point lol

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41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Up here it's been pretty bad, you guys actually fared better down there. We have literally not had as much as a full week of snowcover since December 1st. The lakes up here never even completely froze over, which is extremely unusual. Bare ground almost the entire winter. Our "biggest" snowfall was 4 inches (barely) back in December.  It honestly reminds me of 01-02, up here at least

Yeah, the coast has been the favored location for the best snows during the 2000's.

 

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mssdpt_northeast_mar11.png

mssdpt_northeast_mar10.png

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the coast has been the favored location for the best snows during the 2000's.

 

mssdpt_northeast_jan17.png

mssdpt_northeast_feb16.png

mssdpt_northeast_mar15.png

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mssdpt_northeast_mar10.png

 

 

 

Yes it sure has. My questions are was this in part +AMO driven? And will this continue as we get into the long term -AMO phase over the next several years? We are entering a -AMO cycle right now

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Up here it's been pretty bad, you guys actually fared better down there. We have literally not had as much as a full week of snowcover since December 1st. The lakes up here never even completely froze over, which is extremely unusual. Bare ground almost the entire winter. Our "biggest" snowfall was 4 inches (barely) back in December.  It honestly reminds me of 01-02, up here at least

That's the weirdest part.  At least last year the blizzard gave us some snowcover for awhile.  This year it's basically been bare ground all Winter, and when it does snow, rain or warmth gets rid of it almost immediately.  Biggest storm this year was 2.75" lol, unreal.  Unlike by you though, some lakes did freeze here, as did small parts of the reservoir.

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CFS  has about 7 additional BN days this month, but starts March with a BN look.    JB was skipping past Feb. and talking about March '60, the coldest month that season, in his video today.    If March fails, maybe El Chichon Volcano can blow its top again (or any suitable substitute) and give us an April '82 type blizzard.   

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51 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

CFS  has about 7 additional BN days this month, but starts March with a BN look.    JB was skipping past Feb. and talking about March '60, the coldest month that season, in his video today.    If March fails, maybe El Chichon Volcano can blow its top again (or any suitable substitute) and give us an April '82 type blizzard.   

it will be interesting to see how long JB holds on.  He's really only got the MJO in his favor for a period starting, yep, you guessed it, 10 days from now.   He's also banking on a very negative NAO (which we really have not seen in years-other than a short time last year)...also likes the PNA but notes model input is so-so on the 2M cold.   We saw something like this in 01-02-we got this huge trough, but there was no cold air--kind of looks like that on the euro weeklies-just no cold air anywhere after the next week or so.

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

CFS  has about 7 additional BN days this month, but starts March with a BN look.    JB was skipping past Feb. and talking about March '60, the coldest month that season, in his video today.    If March fails, maybe El Chichon Volcano can blow its top again (or any suitable substitute) and give us an April '82 type blizzard.   

Yeah, yet a week and a half ago this was gonna be an "American Pie" February according to him. Whatever it takes to help drive up oil futures, I guess. If you guys can't see the writing on the wall with him over the past few years, then I don't know what to tell ya. JB's so predictable with what he says that I ought to start betting on it in advance. If only I could find a bookie who would take my bets, I'd be in business. 

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1 hour ago, snowsux said:

Yeah, yet a week and a half ago this was gonna be an "American Pie" February according to him. Whatever it takes to help drive up oil futures, I guess. If you guys can't see the writing on the wall with him over the past few years, then I don't know what to tell ya. JB's so predictable with what he says that I ought to start betting on it in advance. If only I could find a bookie who would take my bets, I'd be in business. 

I guess it's clear now that he's going down with the Titanic this winter

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Just now, snowman19 said:

I guess it's clear now that he's going down with the Titanic this winter

When doesn't he? Hell even in mid and late March 2012 he was still screaming from the mountaintop that winter wasn't over that year. Like I said, how can anyone take that seriously after so long? 

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