Cfa Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 It'd be foolish to declare winter over (and no one did, I'm just saying), but we are essentially in the final stretch. Average temps and sun angle are on the rise. It could stay as mild as it's been these past two days and I wouldn't care. I just want more sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 haha https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48369-met-summerearly-fall-16-banter/?do=findComment&comment=4254412 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 temp talk <yawn> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 5 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: temp talk <yawn> ^^^^Word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 This winter is very depressing. We are almost into February, and not only have we not had any snowfalls above of 3 inches ( where I am in rockland) , but we cant even get a model sweat. Each day and night, I look over the 12z and 00z model suites, and whether it's 120 hours out, 240 hours out, 300 hours out, etc....we can't even get a sweat! Not only has this winter been a horror show for snowfall, but not even a good possibility of one at any point? It's maddening at this point. Ive seen bad winters before...but cannot remember one that doesnt even give us a few reasonable sweats. Im disgusted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 We'll be sweating soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Another winter, another torch! I miss the warm blob in the PAC that gave us the big -EPO's 13-14 and 14-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 Isotherm being optimistic for February is good news in a otherwise ****ty winter up to this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 32 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Isotherm being optimistic for February is good news in a otherwise ****ty winter up to this point Agreed. Maybe at the very least we can break KNYC's streak of 19 months in a row of above normal temperatures. Throw in normal to above normal snowfall for the month and I'd have to look back to see the last time we had that combination. It's been awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Agreed. Maybe at the very least we can break KNYC's streak of 19 months in a row of above normal temperatures. Throw in normal to above normal snowfall for the month and I'd have to look back to see the last time we had that combination. It's been awhile. February 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 The QBO continues to set new records following the disruption last winter. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070373/abstract The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a tropical lower stratospheric, downward propagating zonal wind variation, with an average period of ~28 months. The QBO has been constantly documented since 1953. Here we describe the evolution of the QBO during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015–2016 using radiosonde observations and meteorological reanalyses. Normally, the QBO would show a steady downward propagation of the westerly phase. In 2015–2016, there was an anomalous upward displacement of this westerly phase from ~30 hPa to 15 hPa. These westerlies impinge on or “cutoff” the normal downward propagation of the easterly phase. In addition, easterly winds develop at 40 hPa. Comparisons to tropical wind statistics for the 1953 to present record demonstrate that this 2015–2016 QBO disruption is unprecedented. Sam Lillo @splillo Jan 23 30mb equatorial winds recently have been sitting near 2 sigma above normal ... largest anomaly on record. Strong westerly #QBOpic.twitter.com/Yo5hBCjYLs Brian Brettschneider @Climatologist49 Jan 23 @bhensonweather @splillo For the month of December 2016, 30 mb zonal (U) winds were the most positive on record (red colors) since 1949. pic.twitter.com/mQbzE1fKoU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1967 ao numbers... 1967 2 1 -0.419 1967 2 2 0.282 1967 2 3 0.965 1967 2 4 1.021 1967 2 5 -0.003 1967 2 6 -0.856 1967 2 7 -0.785 1967 2 8 -0.183 1967 2 9 0.722 1967 2 10 0.756 1967 2 11 0.421 1967 2 12 0.704 1967 2 13 0.716 1967 2 14 0.789 1967 2 15 1.181 1967 2 16 1.786 1967 2 17 2.173 1967 2 18 2.573 1967 2 19 2.544 1967 2 20 2.881 1967 2 21 2.607 1967 2 22 1.588 1967 2 23 1.419 1967 2 24 0.374 1967 2 25 0.282 1967 2 26 1.162 1967 2 27 2.858 1967 2 28 4.306 1967 3 1 3.989 1967 3 2 3.116 1967 3 3 2.523 1967 3 4 2.369 1967 3 5 2.600 1967 3 6 2.553 1967 3 7 2.725 1967 3 8 3.136 1967 3 9 3.309 1967 3 10 3.048 1967 3 11 3.068 1967 3 12 3.073 1967 3 13 2.117 1967 3 14 1.600 1967 3 15 1.733 1967 3 16 1.961 1967 3 17 2.242 1967 3 18 2.471 1967 3 19 2.368 1967 3 20 2.317 1967 3 21 2.537 1967 3 22 2.196 1967 3 23 1.637 1967 3 24 1.060 1967 3 25 0.397 when it was slightly negative in early February NYC got its largest snowstorm of the season...On March 19th 1967 NYC had single digit temps...Parts of Long Island was below zero...NYC had a 10" snowfall on the 22nd...all this with an ao near plus two or higher...this shows we could get real cold and snowy without a negative ao but it does help at times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 12 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Agreed. Maybe at the very least we can break KNYC's streak of 19 months in a row of above normal temperatures. Throw in normal to above normal snowfall for the month and I'd have to look back to see the last time we had that combination. It's been awhile. I'm looking back through the records and looking for a similar stretch of warmth- didn't we have 22 out of 24 months above normal back in 1990 and 1991? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 26 minutes ago, Paragon said: I'm looking back through the records and looking for a similar stretch of warmth- didn't we have 22 out of 24 months above normal back in 1990 and 1991? I don't have monthly temperature data for KNYC back that far. I'm sure Uncle does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I don't have monthly temperature data for KNYC back that far. I'm sure Uncle does. http://www.weather.gov/okx/CentralParkHistorical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Well, this still shows that coldest day of the next 15 is Mon. 1/30, as it did 3 days ago: The chart is a bust, may it turn to rust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 CFS for its part shows 10 BN days for the month of Feb., clustered near mid month. Guessing that Feb. ends up +1 to +3 with at least one 6"+ snowfall, but only because I am feeling optimistic today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Congrats @Snow88 on the new tag. Well deserved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 29, 2017 Author Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Congrats @Snow88 on the new tag. Well deserved. No way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: No way oh yes way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Congrats Feen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 All the long nights staying up for the Euro finally payed off. Very hard earned indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 When winter fails you at home it's always winter somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Isotherm said: I continue to be quite intrigued by the potential stratospheric progression over the next couple weeks, which may lead to situation whereby NAM values reach their minima in the second half of February into the first half of March. The models are slowly but surely beginning to detect what I've been noting over the past week concerning the more effective wave-2 follow up, subsequent to the initial ongoing w1/displacement event. The susceptibility of the stratospheric vortex to further attacks will be increased via the w1, but it will be insufficient insofar as significant tropospheric geopotential height reversal in the NAM/NAO domains. However, the wave-2 precursor should induce an upward propagating splitting wave, possibly in the 2/8-2/15 period. Dual action from the Eurasian and Pacific sides could effectuate a fairly rapid tropospheric response by mid February and onward. I am not yet at the inflection point of pulling the trigger on this evolution definitively, in terms of stratospheric progression and subsequent tropospheric response, but my confidence on the probability of its occurrence is increasing. The resultant impacts could be our most negative NAO/AO period of the winter, circa 2/15-3/15. The NAO and AO are neutral to positive for the first half of Feb. As far as the synoptic set-ups for snow prior to 2/15, 2/6 still looks like a time frame to monitor for a moderate event. I am not as interested in 2/6 as I was in prior days, but it still holds potential certainly. Regardless, an intriguing period of tracking from a meteorological, academic perspective at the very least. Changes are clearly afoot with the BDC and O3 transport, although the WQBO will attempt to destructively interfere, its modulation will be lessened by the double-jab wave flux. I expect stratospheric charts to become more impressive again in the D10+. Wow, @BxEngine was just telling me the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 33 minutes ago, Rjay said: Wow, @BxEngine was just telling me the same thing. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 14 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: When winter fails you at home it's always winter somewhere Where is that? I just got back from 4 days at killington. We had on and off snowshowers the entire time. It never amount to more than 3-4 inches by the end of our stay, but it was a great winter atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Hopefully we can get something in early Feb - then baseball season starts and winter can go f*ck off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 People still watch baseball? Its Americas PAST time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 34 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: People still watch baseball? Its Americas PAST time. Well done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Yup..nobody goes there too crowded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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