pazzo83 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Does anyone remember that quaint time long ago when the posting of 300+hr maps was largely ridiculed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 All I know whoever did that is childish and I'm glad no ones pointing fingers at the feen cause I would never do such thing. Edit: Canadian shows a nice snowstorm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Does anyone remember that quaint time long ago when the posting of 300+hr maps was largely ridiculed? Yes, I do realize this. One caveat though: A met in this forum has already analyzed the long-range GFS and says that it is a bad sign for sure. So, it was viable to comment on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 One model is showing it just one guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 45 minutes ago, Hailstorm said: Liking this post more and more as today's GFS totally breaks up the pattern as soon as we enter the cold period. Terrible news for sure. We already see a second torch way before we enter the favorable period. I had a hunch that everything will start to go downhill in the modeling on this day. What are you talking about? This is the 12z: Looks more like a reload than a breakdown to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 more temp talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: more temp talk Its like July in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 5 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: All I know whoever did that is childish and I'm glad no ones pointing fingers at the feen cause I would never do such thing. Edit: Canadian shows a nice snowstorm next week. Maybe it was that Tony loves snow guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Can we get anymore days this winter of 38 and rain? Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I can't understand all the raving going on about how great Feb. will be. I only see spotty cold now during the first 16 days of the month. Throwing in Jan 30-31, I could really identify just 7 out 18 days as being below normal, best perhaps, is the Feb. 6-9 time frame. Used the much maligned CFS of course. We keep sliding forward and soon it won't matter anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I can't wait till the models start spitting out 500hr maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 12 hours ago, CIK62 said: I can't understand all the raving going on about how great Feb. will be. I only see spotty cold now during the first 16 days of the month. Throwing in Jan 30-31, I could really identify just 7 out 18 days as being below normal, best perhaps, is the Feb. 6-9 time frame. Used the much maligned CFS of course. We keep sliding forward and soon it won't matter anyhow. You gotta keep that CFS crap out of the main discussion thread. I'm not going to respond to your post in there. But you are definitely using it to troll. You only post about it when it flips to warm. This is not wishcasting it's fact, the model is garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 20 hours ago, pazzo83 said: Does anyone remember that quaint time long ago when the posting of 300+hr maps was largely ridiculed? 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: I can't wait till the models start spitting out 500hr maps. Indeed. The weather boards have just gone all out weenie, its absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 whatever shows the pretty blue colors over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Usually works like that in the winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 this is what meteorology discussion looks like https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/821725616072458241 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 You think outside of Tom Don You and Chris there are enough people here who want to discuss 10h Pa wind reversals at the pole vs 10mb and 50mb warming arguments Start us off .. vs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 except he's not talking about that and you went right to your model map crutch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 The MJO and STRAT drive Feb or not and that is what we discuss away ad nauseam . The maps do a decent job at explaining the propagation of the MJO or the actual warming at 10mb and 50mb and it`s anomalies. You think of the 500 posters viewing this want to see The current Siberian High, Aleutian Low and North Atlantic High is a classic wave 1 precursory flux machine. in lieu of showing an EPO/NAO 500 MB anomaly progression . Don`t the compressed maps do that for you ? If you don`t ok . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 blah blah blah blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2016 warmest year on record. HOAX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 I like Forky personally he's a good Met even though he trolls lol. Would hate for him to leave the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Still can't join the hoopla about Feb. going on here. First halve has spotty cold and looks AN on the CFS despite below normal heights. Then by the 17th. the roof seems about to cave in. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Still can't join the hoopla about Feb. going on here. First halve has spotty cold and looks AN on the CFS despite below normal heights. Then by the 17th. the roof seems about to cave in. What am I missing? I hope you are using more than the CFS! Terrible model. I think there's agreement that the 1st half of the month looks cold, but who knows on the 2nd half. Given the propensity for the EPO to swing wildly around this year, a predominantly positive AO and zero help in the Atlantic I would not count on the cold pattern lasting more than 2 weeks at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 hours ago, Morris said: Yeah, chase out one of the final few mets. Forky will stay just to haunt you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 hours ago, dmillz25 said: I like Forky personally he's a good Met even though he trolls lol. Would hate for him to leave the forum At this point, he's essentially the only reason I hang out on this board at all... And Don S/Bluewave of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 My wife's family is from the Abruzzo region of Italy; Fraine specifically. Elevation 2,500. Hopefully everyone is staying safe. There are reports of 10-15 feet of snow having fallen to this point in the season. Check out the story re: hotel avalanche in Farindola. I know there are fatalities already being reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/17/2017 at 1:12 PM, Hailstorm said: Liking this post more and more as today's GFS totally breaks up the pattern as soon as we enter the cold period. Terrible news for sure. We already see a second torch way before we enter the favorable period. I had a hunch that everything will start to go downhill in the modeling on this day. Next ones to bite the dust: GEFS, CMC and EPS ensembles. Add bluewave to the mix who has just expressed his bearish thoughts of the upcoming pattern and is almost ready to wave the white flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 11 minutes ago, Hailstorm said: Next ones to bite the dust: GEFS, CMC and EPS ensembles. Add bluewave to the mix who has just expressed his bearish thoughts of the upcoming pattern and is almost ready to wave the white flag. Psst hey you. Did you see that the pattern shown at the end of those runs aren't bad, just a relaxation of the pattern before it reloads again? And also bluewave isn't being bearish he's stating whats being shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 40th anniversary of snow in South Florida. http://www.weather.gov/media/mfl/news/SnowArticleSouthFlorida40th.pdf On January 19th, 1977, snow fell in South Florida for the first time in recorded history. Residents and visitors were both surprised and thrilled at the rare phenomena, and local newspapers ran headlines which were nearly as big as it would be for major national or world events. News of President Jimmy Carter’s inauguration was pushed out of the headlines. Snow was seen across all of Southeast Florida as far south as Homestead and even on Miami Beach. Snow was officially reported by weather observers in West Palm Beach, LaBelle, Hollywood, and Royal Palm Ranger Station in deep South Miami-Dade County. Reports of snow mixed with rain were even received from the Bahamas in Freeport on the other side of the Gulf Stream from Southeast Florida. Although snow in Florida is not as rare as it is believed to be, the farthest south snow had been previously observed was along a Fort Myers to Fort Pierce line in February 1899. The snow came on the heels of a strong Arctic cold front which moved rapidly down the Florida peninsula from late on January 18th through the pre-dawn hours of January 19th. A strong arctic high pressure area settled over the lower Mississippi Valley and pumped very cold air into Florida (Figure 1). At the same time, a band of clouds and of precipitation associated with an upper level trough (Figure 2) followed the passage of the arctic front, and every reporting station in north and central Florida recorded at least a trace of snow. Tampa measured .20 inches and Plant City, east of Tampa, measured up to 2 inches of the white stuff. West Palm Beach reported its first snowfall on record at 6:10 AM and continued to report light snow through 8 AM. LaBelle also reported snow in their cooperative observation report submitted the morning of January 19th. Rain began to mix with snow over areas farther south, and eventually fell as snow flurries across Broward and Miami-Dade counties between 8 and 9:30 AM. Miami International Airport, the official weather reporting site for Miami, did not observe the snowfall. However, cooperative stations in Hollywood and Royal Palm Ranger Station in far southern Miami-Dade County reported a trace of snow. As a result of this and the widespread eyewitness reports of snowfall, an asterisk is included in the official precipitation records for Miami to indicate the widespread reports of snow on the morning of January 19th. It is interesting to note that although air temperatures were slightly above freezing when the snow fell, the freezing level on the morning of the 19th was at only 1,500 feet above sea level which is at a very low altitude for South Florida. This prevented the precipitation from completely melting before reaching the ground. The snow occurred during a prolonged period of very cold temperatures in South Florida. The first arctic front moved through the region late on the afternoon of January 16th with temperatures failing to reach the 60 degree mark in Miami for four consecutive days from January 17th to the 20th. The coldest air and snow arrived with the second arctic front on the 19th, with the afternoon high only reaching the mid to upper 40s. Miami’s afternoon high of 47 degrees that day stands as the 2nd coldest afternoon high on record. The most significant impact of the frigid air was felt on the night of the 19th and morning of the 20th when winds decreased, causing temperatures to plummet to at or belowfreezing virtually everywhere in South Florida, including 27 degrees at the southern tip of the Florida peninsula in Flamingo. Four locations in South Florida tied or set their all- time recorded low temperature, records which stand to this day. Here are some of the low temperatures recorded across South Florida on the morning of January 20th:Temperatures over interior and western sections of South Florida were at or below freezing for 10 to 14 hours, and some locations were at or below 28 degrees for 4 to 8 hours. The extended duration of freezing temperatures devastated the agricultural community in South Florida with estimated losses of $350 million statewide and over $100 million in Dade County alone. Skinned fruit such as tangerines, tangelos and temple oranges were almost totally destroyed, as were tender vegetables such as beans, corn, tomatoes and squash. A total of 35 counties in Florida were declared disaster areas. Sprinkles ran all night at most farms and nurseries, and some of the water also got on to some roadways, causing ice to form on some western Miami-Dade County roads and causing the Florida Highway Patrol to issue travelers advisories for ice-covered roads. Could snow fall again in South Florida? History has already shown us that it can, and if it’s happened once, it can definitely happen again someday. In fact, there were unconfirmed reports of snow mixing with rain in South Florida on January 9th, 2010 from a very similar weather pattern as the one that occurred 40 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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