Met Winter 2016-17 Banter

[BxEngine]

2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Anyone besides me question some of the old reports and records?  With all of the science, tools, and procedures we have in place today folks still cant take accurate measurements or maintain accurate records.  I don't deny it was colder then I just wonder about some of this stuff sometimes.    

I dunno, "snow up to thy knickers" is prob just as accurate as "looks like about 6""

[pazzo83]

8 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Anyone besides me question some of the old reports and records?  With all of the science, tools, and procedures we have in place today folks still cant take accurate measurements or maintain accurate records.  I don't deny it was colder then I just wonder about some of this stuff sometimes.    

Did George Washington ever tell a lie bro???  (Well except that one time...)

[JerseyWx]

14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Anyone besides me question some of the old reports and records?  With all of the science, tools, and procedures we have in place today folks still cant take accurate measurements or maintain accurate records.  I don't deny it was colder then I just wonder about some of this stuff sometimes.    

I sometimes do.  Reading the journals from The Revolution is still fascinating nonetheless.  Here's a piece I grabbed from one of the links I posted above.

When the Army arrived at Jockey Hollow, there was already a foot of snow on the ground. Doctor James Thacher, whose journal is one of the best sources of first person descriptions of events during the war, wrote: "The weather for several days has been remarkably cold and stormy. On the 3rd instance, we experienced one of the most tremendous snowstorms ever remembered; no man could endure its violence many minutes without danger to his life. ... When the storm subsided, the snow was from four to six feet deep, obscuring the very traces of the roads by covering fences that lined them. " In March he wrote: "...an immense body of snow on the ground ­ there had been four snowfalls in February and March brought six more. " Another entry in his journal read: "For the last ten days we have received but two pounds of meat a man, and we are frequently for six or eight days entirely without bread. The consequences is that the soldiers are so enfeebled from hunger and cold, as to be almost unable to perform their military duty or labor in constructing their huts. "

[WeatherFeen2000]

23 hours ago, seanick said:

But you give no scientific reasoning behind your snowfall maps. Anyone can take a guess based off of other posters on here and be right once in awhile. 

I do based on the models and time of the year. Also the high to our north had less confluence on the later runs not to mention once the RGEM caught up to a more westward trend it was depicting the Bermuda high showing on the below image. That weak Bermuda high was enough to sling it more northeast than earlier forecasted. Even the HRRR model was showing this during the storm. 

 

It's a bit too early but I'm going to mention this, for the next system I am going for a snowy one. I think the low out of the Gulf of Mexico develops faster and runs the boundary line through south of Kentucky and scoots underneath us. There will overrunning combined with a low itself reorganizing itself just off the coast of North Carolina. I think that high pressure of 1050 or so will not allow the storm to cut itll be a boundary where all the moisture goes. We could really have a long duration snowstorm this weekend. All the tele connections are there for a major snowstorm. Put in this time of the year, you could have a 10-20 inch snowstorm wherever that boundary sets up. For now I'd like to think our area jackpots anywhere from Monticello, NY down to Washington DC.  

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

I sometimes do.  Reading the journals from The Revolution is still fascinating nonetheless.  Here's a piece I grabbed from one of the links I posted above.

When the Army arrived at Jockey Hollow, there was already a foot of snow on the ground. Doctor James Thacher, whose journal is one of the best sources of first person descriptions of events during the war, wrote: "The weather for several days has been remarkably cold and stormy. On the 3rd instance, we experienced one of the most tremendous snowstorms ever remembered; no man could endure its violence many minutes without danger to his life. ... When the storm subsided, the snow was from four to six feet deep, obscuring the very traces of the roads by covering fences that lined them. " In March he wrote: "...an immense body of snow on the ground ­ there had been four snowfalls in February and March brought six more. " Another entry in his journal read: "For the last ten days we have received but two pounds of meat a man, and we are frequently for six or eight days entirely without bread. The consequences is that the soldiers are so enfeebled from hunger and cold, as to be almost unable to perform their military duty or labor in constructing their huts. "

Not doubt reading the old reports. journals, etc. is entertaining and can be fascinating I just wonder how much weight can be put into them.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Anyone besides me question some of the old reports and records?  With all of the science, tools, and procedures we have in place today folks still cant take accurate measurements or maintain accurate records.  I don't deny it was colder then I just wonder about some of this stuff sometimes.    

While the specifics will always probably be up for debate that far back in time, the consensus of historical reports is that the 1779-1780 winter may have been the 

coldest of the colonial period. For us today , we have enough reliable observing sites so when one has issues other sites can be relied upon to get the big picture.

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Very glad you posted something regarding the Winter at Morristown Bluewave.  I remember talking to a friend about this about 2 years ago, during our frigid February 2015.  They were a little surprised that this Winter was worse than Valley Forge.  Although fewer men died, that was because of less disease and better shelter.  It was brutally cold, and Washington remarked about one of the storms, that no one in the area, even the oldest residents, had seen such a snowfall.  Very interesting piece of Revolutionary history from right here in NJ.

I found some interesting sites that talk about the 1779-1780 Winter.  The first has some quotes from soldiers.  The second talks about the encampments at Jockey Hollow and what happened to them.  Check this out: http://www.revolutionarywararchives.org/coldwinter.html 

And this:   https://www.nps.gov/morr/faqs.htm 

I found another extended account of that historic winter.

 

The Hard Winter of 1780

In the winter of 1779-1780, New York Harbor lay frozen for five weeks. It was possible to walk to Staten Island. The Hudson River was a broken pavement of ice, and by spring nearly every tree in the city, and much of its furniture, had been burned for heat. Those were the days before official weather records were kept, so no one knows exactly how cold that terrible winter was, when even the Chesapeake froze over.

In late November of 1779, General George Washington decided that the Continental Army would return to a familiar location for winter camp. He chose the densely-wooded area just south of Morristown New Jersey known as Jockey Hollow where they had spent the winter of 1776 to 1777 after their historic victories in Trenton and Princeton. Morristown made strategic sense for a number of reasons. . From here the Continental Army could keep an eye on the British occupying New York but still be relatively safe from attack. It was between Philadelphia and New York, and it was home to several skilled tradesmen, local industries that produced weapons and supplies, and it had a community able to provide enough food to a war-weary army. This first stay had been uneventful. The winter of 1779, however, was anything but.

The season was among the harshest on record as 28 snowstorms turned Morristown into a frozen wasteland. “We reached this wilderness, about three miles from Morristown,” wrote James Thacher (1754-1844), surgeon to the Continental Army that winter, “where we are building log huts for winter quarters. The snow on the ground is about two feet deep, and the weather extremely cold.”

Each hut was built to specifications required by General Washington measuring about 14 by 15 feet. The height at the eaves was 6 feet 6 inches. They were built of notched logs, with clay used as chink to seal the huts from the cold, and with a door at one end and a fireplace at the other. Twelve soldiers shared each hut, which had wooden bunks. Windows were added in the spring. Officer’s huts were larger, with two fireplaces and chimneys, and held up to four officers. It is estimated that more than 600 acres of oak, walnut, and chestnut were converted into lines of soldier huts that rose on the hillsides.

Impeded by the weather, the work of felling the great forest and erecting hundreds of cabins went slowly. Almost all of December, the men slept under tents or with no covering at all. A number were not under roofs until February the following year. Soldier huts were about 2 to 3 ft. apart, with three rows of eight huts for each regiment. There were about 1,000 to 1,200 log structures in Jockey Hollow.

The winter of 1779-1780, according to what records there are, was the coldest in 400 years. A record five-week cold spell bottomed out at −20 °F at Hartford, Connecticut, and −16 °F in New York City. By spring nearly every tree in the city, and much of its furniture, had been burned for heat. The Hudson River and New York's harbor froze over. For the first time in recorded history, the rivers in southern Virginia froze over, as did the upper Chesapeake Bay. In January, the daily high in Philadelphia rose above freezing only once. The same month saw “one of the most tremendous snowstorms ever remembered and for many years afterward, when people spoke of the “hard winter,” it was that winter they had in mind.

All roads became impassable and would stay that way until the snow melted. Not a single cart or wagon load of supplies could move. The inability to procure sufficient blankets to cover the soldiers was also a substantial and chronic problem. The dispatch riders could not transit the snow-covered roads, hence all communications had to be carried by men on snow shoes, much slower than horseback. This lack of information and intelligence must have given Washington great concerns.

George Washington wrote the Marquis de Lafayette on March 18th, 1780 "The oldest people now living in this Country do not remember so hard a winter as the one we are now emerging from. In a word the severity of the frost exceeded anything of the kind that had ever been experienced in this climate before.”

When the Army arrived at Jockey Hollow, there was already a foot of snow on the ground. Doctor James Thacher, Army Surgeon wrote in his journal: "The weather for several days has been remarkably cold and stormy. We experienced one of the most tremendous snowstorms ever remembered; no man could endure its violence many minutes without danger to his life. When the storm subsided, the snow was from four to six feet deep, obscuring the very traces of the roads by covering fences that lined them." In March he wrote: "...an immense body of snow on the ground ­ there had been four snowfalls in February and March brought six more."

General Johann de Kalb wrote: "...so cold that the ink freezes on my pen, while I am sitting close to the fire. The roads are piled with snow until, at some places they are elevated twelve feet above their ordinary level."

In David Ludlam's book "Early American Winters, 1604 to 1820", he points out that 28 separate snow storms hit Morristown during the 1779-1780 winter.

Ensuring that the Army would survive the harsh circumstances was Washington's primary concern. But another major weather-related problem soon surfaced. New York harbor was solidly frozen over, one report indicating the ice was eight feet thick! The British were resupplying Staten Island by ox sleighs. The British were also observed moving heavy artillery across the Hudson River to Paulius Hook, New Jersey by sleigh. All the rivers, and their tributaries were also frozen.

The climate conditions that the Continental Army had faced at Valley Forge were mild compared to those they endured at Morristown during the harshest winter in American history.
Spring eventually brought an end to the bitter weather, but it did little to ease the threat of starvation. Supplies were frequently late, and almost never sufficient.

Washington’s men rallied when spring arrived. In June 1780, the Continental Army claimed victory at the Battle of Connecticut Farms and the Battle of Springfield, the last major engagements of the war in New Jersey.

Image: Soldiers Huts Recreations at the Pennsylvania Line Inside Jockey Hollow Encampment Area. There were about 1,000 to 1,200 log huts constructed in Jockey Hollow. None of the originals exist today.

✅ LIKE ☑ SHARE ✔COMMENT AND TAG 
https://www.facebook.com/www.johnstewart1744
Researched and Archived 2016 by Dian Stewart Powels.

[JerseyWx]

45 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Not doubt reading the old reports. journals, etc. is entertaining and can be fascinating I just wonder how much weight can be put into them.

Yeah, I definitely see where you're coming from.  They just didn't have the weather resources we use today.  Who's to say they weren't slant-sticking it anyway 

Imagine a 4-6ft storm in Morristown though?  

 

Also, thank you for that information Bluewave.  I like doing research on the Revolution, especially the battles, marches, encampments, etc. that occurred in our area.

[rgwp96]

15 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah, I definitely see where you're coming from.  They just didn't have the weather resources we use today.  Who's to say they weren't slant-sticking it anyway 

Imagine a 4-6ft storm in Morristown though?  

 

Also, thank you for that information Bluewave.  I like doing research on the Revolution, especially the battles, marches, encampments, etc. that occurred in our area.

I think some here are still using the same rulers they used years ago , this explains the inflated numbers lol 

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, BxEngine said:

I dunno, "snow up to thy knickers" is prob just as accurate as "looks like about 6""

The winds were so fierce as to force me to fashion a second cod piece. 

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah, I definitely see where you're coming from.  They just didn't have the weather resources we use today.  Who's to say they weren't slant-sticking it anyway 

Imagine a 4-6ft storm in Morristown though?  

 

Also, thank you for that information Bluewave.  I like doing research on the Revolution, especially the battles, marches, encampments, etc. that occurred in our area.

We should try to guess what the average January temperature was in NYC during January 1780. With the Hudson, East River, and NY Harbor frozen over, my guess

would be around 15 degrees for January 1780. The coldest months since 1870 were 19.9 in Feb 34... 21.7 Jan 1918..22.1 Jan 77.

http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-free/pdf?res=9C06EED81E31E233A25757C2A9649D946096D6CF

[ForestHillWx]

I live not more than 5 miles from Jockey Hollow; replica cabins still stand. It's good hiking for those interested in historical areas. 

Likely the good doctor was measuring a snow drift. But, the winter of 1779/80 is generally thought to be one of the colder in this area. Of course 1816 was deemed quite cold. 

[JerseyWx]

37 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

I think some here are still using the same rulers they used years ago , this explains the inflated numbers lol 

Those things should be in museums, and not in the hands of weenies

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We should try to guess what the average January temperature was in NYC during January 1780. With the Hudson, East River, and NY Harbor frozen over, my guess

would be around 15 degrees for January 1780. The coldest months since 1870 were 19.9 in Feb 34... 21.7 Jan 1918..22.1 Jan 77.

http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-free/pdf?res=9C06EED81E31E233A25757C2A9649D946096D6CF

That would be very interesting.  I wish there was truly a way to see the temperatures and actual weather of that year.  I think your prediction would be close honestly.

[CIK62]

4 hours ago, uncle W said:

 

http://chroniclingam...-20/ed-1/seq-5/

Thank you for the link.   I was wrong about the year but the basic idea that some snow fell while it was sub-zero was correct.   But again, it may have been warm at the onset like 1888.

[uncle W]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We should try to guess what the average January temperature was in NYC during January 1780. With the Hudson, East River, and NY Harbor frozen over, my guess

would be around 15 degrees for January 1780. The coldest months since 1870 were 19.9 in Feb 34... 21.7 Jan 1918..22.1 Jan 77.

http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-free/pdf?res=9C06EED81E31E233A25757C2A9649D946096D6CF

the article I linked tells of ice dams in the East river that were common in the 1790's...

[Stormlover74]

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY...

* TIMING: DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHTER WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

 

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH 3 TO 7 FEET AT LAKE TAHOE LEVEL.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS OVER 100 MPH.

[qg_omega]

5 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

I do based on the models and time of the year. Also the high to our north had less confluence on the later runs not to mention once the RGEM caught up to a more westward trend it was depicting the Bermuda high showing on the below image. That weak Bermuda high was enough to sling it more northeast than earlier forecasted. Even the HRRR model was showing this during the storm. 

 

It's a bit too early but I'm going to mention this, for the next system I am going for a snowy one. I think the low out of the Gulf of Mexico develops faster and runs the boundary line through south of Kentucky and scoots underneath us. There will overrunning combined with a low itself reorganizing itself just off the coast of North Carolina. I think that high pressure of 1050 or so will not allow the storm to cut itll be a boundary where all the moisture goes. We could really have a long duration snowstorm this weekend. All the tele connections are there for a major snowstorm. Put in this time of the year, you could have a 10-20 inch snowstorm wherever that boundary sets up. For now I'd like to think our area jackpots anywhere from Monticello, NY down to Washington DC.  

Joke post?

[NJwx85]

Loved the warmth today and looking forward to the early Spring pattern advertiesed on the GEFS ensembles.

[WeatherFeen2000]

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Loved the warmth today and looking forward to the early Spring pattern advertiesed on the GEFS ensembles.

Yanks did you check out February? How's it looking? 'My dad said we could have a snowy n cold February and early march.  He also mentioned end of January snow event

[NJwx85]

17 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Yanks did you check out February? How's it looking? 'My dad said we could have a snowy n cold February and early march.  He also mentioned end of January snow event

I wouldn't count on it. Every time the Southeast ridge relaxes it seems to reload within a few days. We can pull out a rogue snow chance during transition periods, but I think overall this Winter will be above average temperature wise and below average precip wise. Pretty much a worse possible scenario. Consider yourself lucky that you've already had a warning criteria event because the next one isn't even a twinkle in it's Fathers eyes yet.

[JerseyWx]

12 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Picked up a solid .25" last night.  Really came down heavy for awhile.

Currently 45° and sunny.

 

11 hours ago, Poker2015 said:

Not to be picky, but posts like this confuse me...how could it be "heavy" for awhile and only pick up .25"

During storms I've been seeing more and more of stuff like this lately...like the last storm, its "ripping snow", total accumulation of 2" over like 6 hours...lol

 

39 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Pouring here ATM... I've picked up .15 in the last hour or so

^ Ulster, it can't be pouring, you only picked up .15 in an hour

[Cfa]

I'm having thunderstorm withdrawals. Hopefully this year doesn't suck like the last 4 or so.

[Dan76]

I think winter is are rainy season and summer is are drought now like out west.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

 

 

^ Ulster, it can't be pouring, you only picked up .15 in an hour

Moderately raining at a decent rate lol

[donsutherland1]

On January 10, 2017 at 2:40 PM, JerseyWx said:

I sometimes do.  Reading the journals from The Revolution is still fascinating nonetheless.  Here's a piece I grabbed from one of the links I posted above.

When the Army arrived at Jockey Hollow, there was already a foot of snow on the ground. Doctor James Thacher, whose journal is one of the best sources of first person descriptions of events during the war, wrote: "The weather for several days has been remarkably cold and stormy. On the 3rd instance, we experienced one of the most tremendous snowstorms ever remembered; no man could endure its violence many minutes without danger to his life. ... When the storm subsided, the snow was from four to six feet deep, obscuring the very traces of the roads by covering fences that lined them. " In March he wrote: "...an immense body of snow on the ground ­ there had been four snowfalls in February and March brought six more. " Another entry in his journal read: "For the last ten days we have received but two pounds of meat a man, and we are frequently for six or eight days entirely without bread. The consequences is that the soldiers are so enfeebled from hunger and cold, as to be almost unable to perform their military duty or labor in constructing their huts. "

Many times those references concern drifts. The language, "on a level," usually referred to the accumulation.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

How do u block a member from the mobile site?

[JerseyWx]

48 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Moderately raining at a decent rate lol

Much better.

41 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Many times those references concern drifts. The language, "on a level," usually referred to the accumulation.

Thanks for the insight Don.  I was wondering how such a storm could impact our area.

[forkyfork]

temp talk is so boring

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

temp talk is so boring

Don't like it don't read it.

[forkyfork]

i have brian on ignore. did he say "don't like it don't read it?"