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Met Winter 2016-17 Banter


dmillz25

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2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Using a grinder, it jerked and cut my thumb pretty deep. 2 stitches in the inside and 3 in the outside. Can't work if it's a struggle to even hold my phone. And thank you.

Damm. Ouch. Sorry man.

 

Next time just break up the weed using your fingers.  (If you never smoked weed you'll have no idea what I'm talking about lol).

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I am utterly sick and tired of all the non-warranted optimism by a big chunk of desperate posters in here.

What ever happened to transparency and realism?

Sugarcoating what a model depicts verbatim should not be tolerated. Just because the EPS shows positive temp anomalies over the East Coast during mid-January does NOT give any poster the right to question its authenticity and state "it should be showing negative departures over us due to the position of "x" being suspect."

These kind of posters should instead listen to the top and highly-respected members in this forum (bluewave, DonS, Isotherm, etc.) that the teleconnection indices will be highly unfavorable for NYC during January.

In fact, just a routine glance at NOAA's gospel outlook for Weeks 3 and 4 should speak volumes in itself:

WK34temp.gif

It appears that the NOAA is taking the 100% right approach and forecasting a blowtorch for late January based on the EPS.

And with the updated 12z GFS ensembles shown below, there should be little doubt in anyone's mind that this January's warmth will rival that of last January. Just look at that insane Alaskan death vortex:

C1MRuvsXcAA44QB.jpg

As for this week's "arctic blast," most of the news media is over-hyping it as usual. No cold blast/snow potential should be worthy of being mentioned unless it falls on the level of 2013-2014 or 2014-2015. 

Before anyone labels me a "troll," please take note that I'm not the only poster in here that has explicitly called out the wishcasting on these forums.

 

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5 minutes ago, Hailstorm said:

As for this week's "arctic blast," most of the news media is over-hyping it as usual. No cold blast/snow potential should be worthy of being mentioned unless it falls on the level of 2013-2014 or 2014-2015. 

Well, they always do that.  Same thing happens in the Summer.  

Ratings my friend.

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9 minutes ago, Hailstorm said:

I am utterly sick and tired of all the non-warranted optimism by a big chunk of desperate posters in here.

What ever happened to transparency and realism?

Sugarcoating what a model depicts verbatim should not be tolerated. Just because the EPS shows positive temp anomalies over the East Coast during mid-January does NOT give any poster the right to question its authenticity and state "it should be showing negative departures over us due to the position of "x" being suspect."

These kind of posters should instead listen to the top and highly-respected members in this forum (bluewave, DonS, Isotherm, etc.) that the teleconnection indices will be highly unfavorable for NYC during January.

In fact, just a routine glance at NOAA's gospel outlook for Weeks 3 and 4 should speak volumes in itself:

WK34temp.gif

It appears that the NOAA is taking the 100% right approach and forecasting a blowtorch for late January based on the EPS.

And with the updated 12z GFS ensembles shown below, there should be little doubt in anyone's mind that this January's warmth will rival that of last January. Just look at that insane Alaskan death vortex:

C1MRuvsXcAA44QB.jpg

As for this week's "arctic blast," most of the news media is over-hyping it as usual. No cold blast/snow potential should be worthy of being mentioned unless it falls on the level of 2013-2014 or 2014-2015. 

Before anyone labels me a "troll," please take note that I'm not the only poster in here that has explicitly called out the wishcasting on these forums.

 

A Russian couple was walking down the street in St. Petersburg the other night, when the man felt a drop hit his nose. "I think it's raining," he said to his wife.

"No, that felt more like snow to me," she replied. "No, I'm sure it was just rain, he said." Well, as these things go, they were about to have a major argument about whether it was raining or snowing. Just then they saw a minor communist party official walking toward them. "Let's not fight about it," the man said, "let's ask Comrade Rudolph whether it's officially raining or snowing."

As the official approached, the man said, "Tell us, Comrade Rudolph, is it officially raining or snowing?" 

"It's raining, of course," he answered and walked on. But the woman insisted: "I know that felt like snow!" To which the man quietly replied: "Rudolph the Red knows rain, dear!" 
 

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1 minute ago, Rjay said:

To be fair wishcasting can go both directions.

 While I agree ignoring all guidance is not a smart move, I'm not sure how posting a map from 372 hours in the future helps your argument.

 

Also, why so angry?

I thought his point was somewhat valid until I saw that map lol

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2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

To be fair wishcasting can go both directions.

 While I agree ignoring all guidance is not a smart move, I'm not sure how posting a map from 372 hours in the future helps your argument.

 

Also, why so angry?

Its easier to be angry and passive aggressive than to calmly and scientifically discuss a disagreement. Duh.   

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6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

To be fair wishcasting can go both directions.

 While I agree ignoring all guidance is not a smart move, I'm not sure how posting a map from 372 hours in the future helps your argument.

 

Also, why so angry?

Considering Hailstorm considers below normal temps "torched up and down the east coast", maybe someone with a little more objectivity should be the one calling out the eternal optimists. ;)

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4 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

How do models like the CanSIPS forecast these patterns so far ahead of time?  Something I've always been curious about.

 

I don't know the answer to that. I'm sure it's a LOT of math. What I have seen though, is that these seasonal models are focused on predicting the Nino regions. Because that is seen as the main seasonal driver. So they are supposed to demonstrate the most skill there. I'm pretty sure the skill isn't very good even in those regions at this range though.

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1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

 

I don't know the answer to that. I'm sure it's a LOT of math. What I have seen though, is that these seasonal models are focused on predicting the Nino regions. Because that is seen as the main seasonal driver. So they are supposed to demonstrate the most skill there. I'm pretty sure the skill isn't very good even in those regions at this range though.

I see what you're saying.  I'm sure there is a complicated algorithm or program that involves some crazy formulas like you mentioned.

 

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3 hours ago, Hailstorm said:

I am utterly sick and tired of all the non-warranted optimism by a big chunk of desperate posters in here.

What ever happened to transparency and realism?

Sugarcoating what a model depicts verbatim should not be tolerated. Just because the EPS shows positive temp anomalies over the East Coast during mid-January does NOT give any poster the right to question its authenticity and state "it should be showing negative departures over us due to the position of "x" being suspect."

These kind of posters should instead listen to the top and highly-respected members in this forum (bluewave, DonS, Isotherm, etc.) that the teleconnection indices will be highly unfavorable for NYC during January.

In fact, just a routine glance at NOAA's gospel outlook for Weeks 3 and 4 should speak volumes in itself:

WK34temp.gif

It appears that the NOAA is taking the 100% right approach and forecasting a blowtorch for late January based on the EPS.

And with the updated 12z GFS ensembles shown below, there should be little doubt in anyone's mind that this January's warmth will rival that of last January. Just look at that insane Alaskan death vortex:

C1MRuvsXcAA44QB.jpg

As for this week's "arctic blast," most of the news media is over-hyping it as usual. No cold blast/snow potential should be worthy of being mentioned unless it falls on the level of 2013-2014 or 2014-2015. 

Before anyone labels me a "troll," please take note that I'm not the only poster in here that has explicitly called out the wishcasting on these forums.

 

What gives you the right to judge other posters though? Just food for thought.

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19 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Using a grinder, it jerked and cut my thumb pretty deep. 2 stitches in the inside and 3 in the outside. Can't work if it's a struggle to even hold my phone. And thank you.

That's OK,I took a recently sharpened hatchet to the left pointer finger when I was in 7 or 8th grade. bunch of years ago. Didn't get stitches or anything,but left a nice scar. Barely missed bone or anything important. 

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18 hours ago, Hailstorm said:

I am utterly sick and tired of all the non-warranted optimism by a big chunk of desperate posters in here.

What ever happened to transparency and realism?

Sugarcoating what a model depicts verbatim should not be tolerated. Just because the EPS shows positive temp anomalies over the East Coast during mid-January does NOT give any poster the right to question its authenticity and state "it should be showing negative departures over us due to the position of "x" being suspect."

These kind of posters should instead listen to the top and highly-respected members in this forum (bluewave, DonS, Isotherm, etc.) that the teleconnection indices will be highly unfavorable for NYC during January.

In fact, just a routine glance at NOAA's gospel outlook for Weeks 3 and 4 should speak volumes in itself:

WK34temp.gif

It appears that the NOAA is taking the 100% right approach and forecasting a blowtorch for late January based on the EPS.

And with the updated 12z GFS ensembles shown below, there should be little doubt in anyone's mind that this January's warmth will rival that of last January. Just look at that insane Alaskan death vortex:

C1MRuvsXcAA44QB.jpg

As for this week's "arctic blast," most of the news media is over-hyping it as usual. No cold blast/snow potential should be worthy of being mentioned unless it falls on the level of 2013-2014 or 2014-2015. 

Before anyone labels me a "troll," please take note that I'm not the only poster in here that has explicitly called out the wishcasting on these forums.

 

LOL.  Agree the cold has been over-hyped, but relax dude.  Hit the showers for awhile.  Clearly the pattern is getting to you

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1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

Unless my memory is wrong, LA Nina winters are always really tough/difficult for big snowy winters,unless everything ends up lining up perfect. 

the funny thing is the Nina is very weak....you'd think we'd be having a strong nina with the storm track and warmth we've had.

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The fact is if it makes people feel better by being optimistic- let them.  It isn't hurting anyone.  I find it much better talking to optimistic than pessimistic people.  Even if we all know this won't be a great winter, one storm is all it takes, and talking to negative people isn't fun nor is it healthy.

 

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