dmillz25 Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 hour ago, Hailstorm said: It's nowhere near blantantly false. NYC proper is not covered in any of the blue shades, so we will only see normal temps. That translates to temps at or above 40. The SE ridge is flexing its muscles very clearly in that map, and all the storms will cut to our West as some realistic posters on here have stated. Lmao try again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 It's nowhere near blantantly false. NYC proper is not covered in any of the blue shades, so we will only see normal temps. That translates to temps at or above 40. The SE ridge is flexing its muscles very clearly in that map, and all the storms will cut to our West as some realistic posters on here have stated.Wut?1) those are 'averages' so even if correct, NYC will not "only see normal temps". some will be BN and some AN but the average is slightly BN. 2) how do you see a SE Ridge on that map of temp averages? you can't make assumptions on H5 features solely by looking at a temp map3) "all the storms will cut to our West"......wut? please analyze (properly) the H5 pattern evolution over the next 5-15 days on the ensembles before ever making such a general statement like this ever again....please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Wut? 1) those are 'averages' so even if correct, NYC will not "only see normal temps". some will be BN and some AN but the average is slightly BN. 2) how do you see a SE Ridge on that map of temp averages? you can't make assumptions on H5 features solely by looking at a temp map 3) "all the storms will cut to our West"......wut? please analyze (properly) the H5 pattern evolution over the next 5-15 days on the ensembles before ever making such a general statement like this ever again....please. But the colors show that! Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 D7 threat - maybe I don't have to worry about being fringed for once? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: D7 threat - maybe I don't have to worry about being fringed for once? Have you considered stepping on the first base line while jogging out to the mound, after discussing the no hitter youre throwing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 4 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Have you considered stepping on the first base line while jogging out to the mound, after discussing the no hitter youre throwing? All I want is one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 Guys nobody talk to NEPA in between innings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 This winter will make a great comeback just like Ronda Rousey did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 10 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Lmao try again When you have a strong -EPO block over Alaska, heights can be near normal at 500mb with colder than normal surface temperatures. This is due to the fact that northern North America is a large, snow-covered landmass...with northerly flow off the North Pole, dense, low-level arctic air will be forced south. The jet stream pattern may be fairly zonal, leading to the appearance of normal or just slightly below average temperatures, but low level arctic air will be present, along with radiational cooling, because we have higher than normal surface pressures to the north. Low level cold will be strong due to ageo flow and radiating under big highs. I guarantee Jan 5-15 finishes below normal at NYC stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 This still looks quite ho-hum and no better than yesterday's: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 We all wish that the CFS was full of hot air. Well guess what. It is. Hotter than a fireman's helmet all the way into Feb. Horrors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 31, 2016 Share Posted December 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, CIK62 said: We all wish that the CFS was full of hot air. Well guess what. It is. Hotter than a fireman's helmet all the way into Feb. Horrors. Well, if it's right about that, then it must be right about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Happy New Years boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Happy New Years all...The oldest daily weather record that still stands is from January 1st, 1869...9" of sleet and ice accumulated...January 1st 1869 is the first day of official weather records for Central Park...I assumed it was a snowstorm but reading accounts in the old newspapers I linked say it was a hail storm...Sleet in today's world... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-8/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-4/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/60744003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 Happy new year!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 December averaged 38.3 in Central Park...Since 1980 the average is near 38.0...35.7 since 1870...the closest analog is 1959 with a 38.4 for December...January 1960 averaged 33.9...At the time the average was 33.2 for January...The average has gone down since...1960-1989 averaged 31.2...since 1990 the average is near 33.9...59-60 is my main analog for this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Hasn't Dec. and Feb. increased by 2 to 4 degrees each since record keeping began here, while Jan. has increased just 1 or 2 degrees for some strange reason? Thus, from the start- till a 1940 crossover point- Feb. was our coldest month, now Jan. is. Can anyone confirm this.? I think I saw such a chart on the site a few years ago. At any rate the latest CANSIPS looks like the previous one. It makes Jan./ Feb. about +2 to 3 degs. and offers us a near normal spring instead. Really no blues anywhere in the 48 after Jan. It nailed Dec 's +1 in its no-lead time output. Even a month ago, Jan. & Feb. we're being marked as +3 degs. each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Hasn't Dec. and Feb. increased by 2 to 4 degrees each since record keeping began here, while Jan. has increased just 1 or 2 degrees for some strange reason? Thus, from the start- till a 1940 crossover point- Feb. was our coldest month, now Jan. is. Can anyone confirm this.? I think I saw such a chart on the site a few years ago. At any rate the latest CANSIPS looks like the previous one. It makes Jan./ Feb. about +2 to 3 degs. and offers us a near normal spring instead. Really no blues anywhere in the 48 after Jan. It nailed Dec 's +1 in its no-lead time output. Even a month ago, Jan. & Feb. we're being marked as +3 degs. each. these are the stats I have for January in Central Park...the decade average...highest and lowest for the ten year period...average maximum and minimum for the ten years...Highest max and lowest max for the ten year period...average snowfall and precipitation also...the 1970's averaged 30.6 in January...the lowest since the 1920's...the 1990's are the highest at 34.8...just beating out the 1930's 34.7...the 2010's are averaging 32.5 so far... decade...ave...high...low...ave/ max min max...min...snowfall...precipitation 1870's...30.3...37.5...23.8.........................68...-4......9.6"......3.29" 1880's...28.7...39.6...24.7......53.5.....4.3...65...-6......9.1"......4.12" 1890's...31.7...37.6...23.7......55.0.....9.0...64...-2......8.6"......3.46" 1900's...32.1...38.4...25.3......55.2.....7.5...64...-1......8.1"......3.07" 1910's...32.4...40.9...21.7......57.1.....6.6...69...-5......5.1"......3.77" 1920's...30.5...34.0...23.4......53.9.....4.6...62...-2......8.9"......3.52" 1930's...34.7...43.2...28.9......59.9.....9.7...70...-3......6.4"......3.98" 1940's...31.0...38.6...25.0......56.2.....7.6...63....0......7.7"......3.20" 1950's...33.7...41.4...28.5......58.7...10.8...72....0......5.0"......2.75" 1960's...31.8...37.4...26.7......55.4.....8.6...68...-1......7.1"......2.37" 1970's...30.6...37.3...22.1......57.5.....6.0...66...-2......8.0"......4.57" 1980's...31.3...37.4...26.1......57.4.....6.8...63...-2......7.9"......3.26" 1990's...34.8...41.4...25.6......60.9...11.2...66...-2......6.1"......4.47" 2000's...33.1...40.9...24.7......60.8.....9.8...72....1......7.2"......3.19" 2010's...32.5...37.3...28.6......58.0.....9.7...62.....4.....15.5"............... 1870 to 2009.....31.9...39.0...25.0......57.0.....7.9...67...-2......7.5"......3.50" 1980 to 2009.....33.1...39.9...25.5......59.7.....9.3...67...-1......7.1"......3.64" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 I forecasted +1 for December and I'm going +1 for January as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 19 minutes ago, Rjay said: I forecasted +1 for December and I'm going +1 for January as well. I'm going +2 for January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 January should be +1.5, this pattern of cold shots for 3 or so days then back to above normal looks to continue through January IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 As a plumber, I don't want frigid temps. Cold enough for snow is just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 0z gfs weenie snow maps show a crush job for the LI crew with 18-24". Hold this solution for 6-7 days. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, Rjay said: 0z gfs weenie snow maps show a crush job for the LI crew with 18-24". Hold this solution for 6-7 days. Thanks. Second this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: Second this. I'd rather the GFS run be 300-400 SE at this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 27 minutes ago, Rjay said: I'd rather the GFS run be 300-400 SE at this range... Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I must be the only one here that doesn't see the appeal in having a year's worth of snow fall in a single storm. Anything over a foot is overkill imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, Cfa said: I must be the only one here that doesn't see the appeal in having a year's worth of snow fall in a single storm. Anything over a foot is overkill imo. One of the only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Cfa said: I must be the only one here that doesn't see the appeal in having a year's worth of snow fall in a single storm. Anything over a foot is overkill imo. There is nothing like a ku that brings everything to a halt. Esp with a fire going and the Giants in the playoffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 And a bottle of Blantons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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