Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Met Winter 2016-17 Banter


dmillz25

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Hailstorm said:

It's nowhere near blantantly false. NYC proper is not covered in any of the blue shades, so we will only see normal temps. That translates to temps at or above 40. The SE ridge is flexing its muscles very clearly in that map, and all the storms will cut to our West as some realistic posters on here have stated.

Lmao try again

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 3.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
It's nowhere near blantantly false. NYC proper is not covered in any of the blue shades, so we will only see normal temps. That translates to temps at or above 40. The SE ridge is flexing its muscles very clearly in that map, and all the storms will cut to our West as some realistic posters on here have stated.



Wut?

1) those are 'averages' so even if correct, NYC will not "only see normal temps". some will be BN and some AN but the average is slightly BN.

2) how do you see a SE Ridge on that map of temp averages? you can't make assumptions on H5 features solely by looking at a temp map

3) "all the storms will cut to our West"......wut? please analyze (properly) the H5 pattern evolution over the next 5-15 days on the ensembles before ever making such a general statement like this ever again....please.



Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 


Wut?

1) those are 'averages' so even if correct, NYC will not "only see normal temps". some will be BN and some AN but the average is slightly BN.

2) how do you see a SE Ridge on that map of temp averages? you can't make assumptions on H5 features solely by looking at a temp map

3) "all the storms will cut to our West"......wut? please analyze (properly) the H5 pattern evolution over the next 5-15 days on the ensembles before ever making such a general statement like this ever again....please.


 

 

But the colors show that! Lmao

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Lmao try again

When you have a strong -EPO block over Alaska, heights can be near normal at 500mb with colder than normal surface temperatures. This is due to the fact that northern North America is a large, snow-covered landmass...with northerly flow off the North Pole, dense, low-level arctic air will be forced south.

The jet stream pattern may be fairly zonal, leading to the appearance of normal or just slightly below average temperatures, but low level arctic air will be present, along with radiational cooling, because we have higher than normal surface pressures to the north. Low level cold will be strong due to ageo flow and radiating under big highs.

I guarantee Jan 5-15 finishes below normal at NYC stations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Happy New Years all...The oldest daily weather record that still stands is from January 1st, 1869...9" of sleet and ice accumulated...January 1st 1869 is the first day of official weather records for Central Park...I assumed it was a snowstorm but reading accounts in the old newspapers I linked say it was a hail storm...Sleet in today's world...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-8/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-4/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/60744003

Link to comment
Share on other sites

December averaged 38.3 in Central Park...Since 1980 the average is near 38.0...35.7 since 1870...the closest analog is 1959 with a 38.4 for December...January 1960 averaged 33.9...At the time the average was 33.2 for January...The average has gone down since...1960-1989 averaged 31.2...since 1990 the average is near 33.9...59-60 is my main analog for this year...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hasn't Dec. and Feb. increased by 2 to 4 degrees each since record keeping began here, while Jan. has increased just 1 or 2 degrees for some strange reason?  Thus, from the start- till a 1940 crossover point- Feb. was our coldest month, now Jan. is.

 Can anyone confirm this.?  I think I saw such a chart on the site a few years ago.

At any rate the latest CANSIPS looks like the previous one.   It makes Jan./ Feb. about +2 to 3 degs. and offers us a near normal spring instead.  Really no blues anywhere in the 48 after Jan.

It nailed Dec 's  +1 in its no-lead time output.  Even a month ago, Jan. & Feb. we're  being marked  as +3 degs. each.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Hasn't Dec. and Feb. increased by 2 to 4 degrees each since record keeping began here, while Jan. has increased just 1 or 2 degrees for some strange reason?  Thus, from the start- till a 1940 crossover point- Feb. was our coldest month, now Jan. is.

 Can anyone confirm this.?  I think I saw such a chart on the site a few years ago.

At any rate the latest CANSIPS looks like the previous one.   It makes Jan./ Feb. about +2 to 3 degs. and offers us a near normal spring instead.  Really no blues anywhere in the 48 after Jan.

It nailed Dec 's  +1 in its no-lead time output.  Even a month ago, Jan. & Feb. we're  being marked  as +3 degs. each.

these are the stats I have for January in Central Park...the decade average...highest and lowest for the ten year period...average maximum and minimum for the ten years...Highest max and lowest max for the ten year period...average snowfall and precipitation also...the 1970's averaged 30.6 in January...the lowest since the 1920's...the 1990's are the highest at 34.8...just beating out the 1930's 34.7...the 2010's are averaging 32.5 so far...

decade...ave...high...low...ave/ max min max...min...snowfall...precipitation
1870's...30.3...37.5...23.8.........................68...-4......9.6"......3.29"
1880's...28.7...39.6...24.7......53.5.....4.3...65...-6......9.1"......4.12"
1890's...31.7...37.6...23.7......55.0.....9.0...64...-2......8.6"......3.46"
1900's...32.1...38.4...25.3......55.2.....7.5...64...-1......8.1"......3.07"
1910's...32.4...40.9...21.7......57.1.....6.6...69...-5......5.1"......3.77"
1920's...30.5...34.0...23.4......53.9.....4.6...62...-2......8.9"......3.52"
1930's...34.7...43.2...28.9......59.9.....9.7...70...-3......6.4"......3.98"
1940's...31.0...38.6...25.0......56.2.....7.6...63....0......7.7"......3.20"
1950's...33.7...41.4...28.5......58.7...10.8...72....0......5.0"......2.75"
1960's...31.8...37.4...26.7......55.4.....8.6...68...-1......7.1"......2.37"
1970's...30.6...37.3...22.1......57.5.....6.0...66...-2......8.0"......4.57"
1980's...31.3...37.4...26.1......57.4.....6.8...63...-2......7.9"......3.26"
1990's...34.8...41.4...25.6......60.9...11.2...66...-2......6.1"......4.47"
2000's...33.1...40.9...24.7......60.8.....9.8...72....1......7.2"......3.19"

2010's...32.5...37.3...28.6......58.0.....9.7...62.....4.....15.5"...............
1870 to
2009.....31.9...39.0...25.0......57.0.....7.9...67...-2......7.5"......3.50"

1980 to
2009.....33.1...39.9...25.5......59.7.....9.3...67...-1......7.1"......3.64"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Cfa said:

I must be the only one here that doesn't see the appeal in having a year's worth of snow fall in a single storm. Anything over a foot is overkill imo.

 

There is nothing like a ku that brings everything to a halt. Esp with a fire going and the Giants in the playoffs

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...