Met Winter 2016-17 Banter

[snywx]

18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it also depends where you live.  It's no accident the well inland people are downplaying the warmth.    On the coast, those maps are unlikely to yield snow unless we thread the needle.

But at the same time the past 5 or so years has left expectations unrealistic for those along the coast. Threading the needle was more often the case and closer to the norm for the coast untill the 09/10 season rolled along. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, snywx said:

But at the same time the past 5 or so years has left expectations unrealistic for those along the coast. Threading the needle for the coast was usually the norm till the 09/10 season rolled along. 

Fair point.   We have cashed in here like never before.   Would say a secondary max goes back to the year 2000.   Storms like 12/30/00, 2/16/03, 12/25/02, 12/5/02 etc were rare birds before the millenium.

[snywx]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Fair point.   We have cashed in here like never before.   Would say a secondary max goes back to the year 2000.   Storms like 12/30/00, 2/16/03, 12/25/02, 12/5/02 etc were rare birds before the millenium.

I think Northshorewx in an earlier post stated he is 13" above his long term avg in the last 14 yrs! lol.. Thats pretty wild. In the same time frame im about 5" above norm. 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, snywx said:

I think Northshorewx in an earlier post stated he is 13" above his long term avg in the last 14 yrs! lol.. Thats pretty wild. In the same time frame im about 5" above norm. 

If one pulled up stats for my area ONLY back to the year 2000, they would think this place is much snowier than it really is.  (when you look at the average back to 1900 or whenever reliable records become the norm)

[IrishRob17]

5 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

it also depends where you live.  It's no accident the well inland people are downplaying the warmth.    On the coast, those maps are unlikely to yield snow unless we thread the needle.

I wonder how far inland some will thing we are if Legoland gets built in Goshen. That will give some folks a new frame of reference, LOL

[nzucker]

4 hours ago, snywx said:

I think Northshorewx in an earlier post stated he is 13" above his long term avg in the last 14 yrs! lol.. Thats pretty wild. In the same time frame im about 5" above norm. 

Dobbs Ferry snowfall since 2009:

08-09: 45"

09-10: 68"

10-11: 70"

11-12: 21"

12-13: 52"

13-14: 74"

14-15: 56"

15-16: 32" 

Average: 52"

Historical Average (since 1945) : 36" 

 Percent of Normal: 144%

Says it all. It's been an absurd stretch. Only failed to meet average twice in eight seasons, and had 70"+ (200%) in two seasons.

[coastalplainsnowman]

 

I remember in 2000/2001 looking back at the previous 30 years to 1970 and finding that Long Island (I forget what station the data was from) had a grand total of something like 6 storms of 10" or more over those 30 years.  Back then seeing a snow map with 3-6 was a big deal.

 

[Rjay]

4 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Could go for a torched creme brulee. 

Elitist 

[BxEngine]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Elitist 

Elite eli

[Morris]

http://gizmodo.com/freak-snowfall-in-the-sahara-looks-unreal-1790320022

[WeatherFeen2000]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/12/20/forecast-north-pole-to-warm-50-degrees-above-normal-thursday-near-melting-point/?utm_term=.1bc7642e318f

 

We're screwed

 

 

 

 

[nzucker]

20 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/12/20/forecast-north-pole-to-warm-50-degrees-above-normal-thursday-near-melting-point/?utm_term=.1bc7642e318f

 

We're screwed

 

 

 

 

Russia is going to be as cold as the North Pole is warm. It's a warm arctic, cold continents pattern. Much of Canada will also be below normal.

[forkyfork]

i love how desperate everyone gets when the pattern is hostile for snow

[Brian5671]

59 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i love how desperate everyone gets when the pattern is hostile for snow

don't look at today's 12z runs-the torch is gone....

[MJO812]

Bye torch on the Euro

[forkyfork]

you don't need a torch for it to not snow

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

you don't need a torch for it to not snow

Who cares?  Cold at least gives us the chance.  Little to no chance with a mega torch.

[ForestHillWx]

In relation to that article from WaPo, which is a bit too laden with hysterics for me, when a sizeable s/w transports copious moisture and latent heat energy, north of 70N up towards the NP, how much heat energy is lost due to the black hole known as winter. Understood that I have generalized various components of physics.

But in all seriousness, the transport of that amount of heat energy to the north pole, is likely to result in some being lost. I'm curious if there is a way to calculate how much heat energy is radiated into the vaults of space.

 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

5 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

don't look at today's 12z runs-the torch is gone....

Interesting...I wish I woulda screen shot some of the posts this past week

 

[MJO812]

Colder pattern ahead on all the models starting around new year. 

Next storm to watch is the 29th

[dmillz25]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Colder pattern ahead on all the models starting around new year. 

Next storm to watch is the 29th

Remember when just a few days ago the models were showing a ****ty pattern through the whole period? Lol

[psv88]

This board is absolutely unreadable at the moment. The whole torch v. non torch fight is so stupid. The models showed above normal, weenies weren't happy and then the models show above normal but less so and the weenies are now yelling "what torch!" With every post. With every freaking post. 

We get it. It won't be 70. We get it. Time to move on already. You all are acting like 5 year olds. And we are entering the coldest time of the year, so even above normal temps for our nw posters can lead to snow for them. But you guys must know this.

4 degrees above normal down here precludes snow chances, not so nw. 

And with respect to the merits of the argument, obviously 4-5 degrees above normal is not a torch. A torch implies +10 or greater positive departures, like this past Sunday when I hit 60. That is a torch, not 50. 

Move on.

[Eduardo]

16 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Remember when just a few days ago the models were showing a ****ty pattern through the whole period? Lol

Vaguely reminds me of December 2013.  If memory serves, it was a weenie suicide fest as we torched around Xmas as Maine received an ice storm.  Pattern flipped abruptly and the first of many snowstorms hit on January 3rd.  Winter held on for quite awhile that year.

Definitely plenty of reasons for optimism IMO!

[IrishRob17]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This board is absolutely unreadable at the moment. The whole torch v. non torch fight is so stupid. The models showed above normal, weenies weren't happy and then the models show above normal but less so and the weenies are now yelling "what torch!" With every post. With every freaking post. 

We get it. It won't be 70. We get it. Time to move on already. You all are acting like 5 year olds. And we are entering the coldest time of the year, so even above normal temps for our nw posters can lead to snow for them. But you guys must know this.

4 degrees above normal down here precludes snow chances, not so nw. 

And with respect to the merits of the argument, obviously 4-5 degrees above normal is not a torch. A torch implies +10 or greater positive departures, like this past Sunday when I hit 60. That is a torch, not 50. 

Move on.

Please cite your source, thanks in advance.  

 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

Please cite your source, thanks in advance.  

 

My 20 years of following the weather and involvement with weather discussion.

[Eduardo]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This board is absolutely unreadable at the moment. The whole torch v. non torch fight is so stupid. The models showed above normal, weenies weren't happy and then the models show above normal but less so and the weenies are now yelling "what torch!" With every post. With every freaking post. 

We get it. It won't be 70. We get it. Time to move on already. You all are acting like 5 year olds. And we are entering the coldest time of the year, so even above normal temps for our nw posters can lead to snow for them. But you guys must know this.

4 degrees above normal down here precludes snow chances, not so nw. 

And with respect to the merits of the argument, obviously 4-5 degrees above normal is not a torch. A torch implies +10 or greater positive departures, like this past Sunday when I hit 60. That is a torch, not 50. 

Move on.

Hear hear!  I think it's time that we settle upon a reasonable definition of the (unscientific) term "torch."  Gets tossed around too freely these days.

For me, it has to mean more than merely "hostile to snowfall."  Where do we set the threshold though?  +10 departure?  Do we consider the duration of positive departures too?

Seems like a silly thing to tussle with, but it might make for more coherent discussion on here.

[BxEngine]

14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This board is absolutely unreadable at the moment. The whole torch v. non torch fight is so stupid. The models showed above normal, weenies weren't happy and then the models show above normal but less so and the weenies are now yelling "what torch!" With every post. With every freaking post. 

We get it. It won't be 70. We get it. Time to move on already. You all are acting like 5 year olds. And we are entering the coldest time of the year, so even above normal temps for our nw posters can lead to snow for them. But you guys must know this.

4 degrees above normal down here precludes snow chances, not so nw. 

And with respect to the merits of the argument, obviously 4-5 degrees above normal is not a torch. A torch implies +10 or greater positive departures, like this past Sunday when I hit 60. That is a torch, not 50. 

Move on.

Fights about the weather on a weather forum are much better than fights about locations and who can post where.

[IrishRob17]

2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Fights about the weather are much better than fights about locations and who can post where.

I'll be behind the school at 2:15pm, we can settle it there.

[BxEngine]

1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

I'll be behind the school at 2:15pm, we can settle it there.

Only if there is still snow on the ground. Cant fight in a torch.

[IrishRob17]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

Only if there is still snow on the ground. Cant fight in a torch.

Someone will get crushed, better close the blinds.