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Met Winter 2016-17 Banter

dmillz25

By dmillz25,
in New York City Metro

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hailstorm said:

He has every right to whine.

The pro-snow/cold folks in this board have been atrocious with their predictions so far this season.

It is downright deplorable and deceptive of them to state that NYC will experience a below-normal period this week. That is pure fabrication; just two days of below-average temps followed by insane warmth for the rest of December does not even closely resemble a cold pattern. I'm sure the general public will view this December as mild at the end.

In fact, no one on here should dare to deem an air mass to be cold unless it is almost certain that our temps will not rise above the 30s for at least 7 consecutive days.

Also, they should not even post any analysis until there is widespread model agreement that a truly cold pattern will take hold five days out.

Instead, everyone should just call it a day and follow Isotherm's prediction of an all-out torch winter. Let it play out. He has correctly nailed the past few winters with solid reasoning.

Yup...."December to remember" and calls for big long lasting cold have gone out the door.     GFS ensembles were awful with the glacier calls over the Northeast as well.  Honorable mention to models showing a big -NAO only to fall short yet again....

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North and West of Town

North and West of Town

Posted
Posted

I always enjoy reading different points of view and estimations here each winter, but it's really tough when everyone goes overboard declaring winter over on December 15th. I know there are forecasts, and favorable trends, but sometime it's not joyful when we're married to trends 45-60 days out. I mean, didn't we just mention that the cold December forecasts didn't pan out exactly as planned?

Anyway, I don't post here often, but I do enjoy when it's interesting and not fatalistic. 

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, North and West of Town said:

I always enjoy reading different points of view and estimations here each winter, but it's really tough when everyone goes overboard declaring winter over on December 15th. I know there are forecasts, and favorable trends, but sometime it's not joyful when we're married to trends 45-60 days out. I mean, didn't we just mention that the cold December forecasts didn't pan out exactly as planned?

Anyway, I don't post here often, but I do enjoy when it's interesting and not fatalistic. 

IMO, that is one of the problems of becoming emotionally invested in the weather.

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North and West of Town

North and West of Town

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

IMO, that is one of the problems of becoming emotionally invested in the weather.

Agreed. Don't get me wrong - probably like everyone else here, I love a good cold snap, snowstorm, thunderstorm, beautiful day, et al - but sometimes you're going to get what you want, and sometimes you won't, and we can't change that. Enjoy what we have when it's here.  

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, North and West of Town said:

Agreed. Don't get me wrong - probably like everyone else here, I love a good cold snap, snowstorm, thunderstorm, beautiful day, et al - but sometimes you're going to get what you want, and sometimes you won't, and we can't change that. Enjoy what we have when it's here.  

No worries, we are on the same page here, take 'em as they come.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Some data and thoughts concerning December:

12/1-15 anomaly: 0.5° below normal (through 11 am today). Breakdown of days: Above normal: 11 (73%); 5° or more above normal: 1 (7%); Below normal: 4 (27%); 5° or more below normal: 4 (27%).

The Arctic air for mid-December was well-modeled. The ECMWF was overly aggressive with early forecasts showing single-digit lows in New York City. The GFS did better. The coldest temperature will likely wind up in the mid-teens in NYC (some single-digits well outside the City), which is still impressive compared with outcomes from recent Decembers.

The latter half of the month still looks to be milder than normal. The ensembles continue to suggest a high probability that Christmas/Hanukkah will be above normal. The pattern evolution toward EPO+/strongly positive AO supports such an outcome.

Personally, I felt that the EPS was too cold with its December forecast (around 3° below normal if I recall correctly) and the CFSv2 was too warm (more than 4° above normal). I still felt that December would wind up somewhat warmer than normal (+2.1° was my guess in AmWx's December 2016 contest). I suspect that my guess will prove to have been too warm, though a somewhat warmer than normal December remains in play. It will be a fairly close call given the magnitude of the current Arctic shot and the additional cold shot early next week. A lot may depend on whether we see several surges of very warm air or whether the closing 10 days of the month average more than 2° above normal, as the monthly anomaly may be somewhat colder than 1° below normal through the 21st if the MOS MEX guidance is accurate.

With a reasonable prospect that NYC will pick up 1"-3" snow Saturday morning and perhaps a coating Sunday afternoon or evening, December's snowfall will probably wind up in the 1.5"-3.5" range. During the prior 10 years, the median December snowfall was 2.0".

December 2015 shows what a true nightmare is like. Some gruesome statistics from that month: Average high temperature: 56.3°, Average low temperature: 45.3°; Average monthly temperature: 50.8°, Days with 50° or warmer high temperatures: 24; Days with 60° or warmer high temperatures: 11; Lowest temperature: 34°; Highest temperature: 72°; Snowfall: Trace.

This December will probably have a mean temperature below 40° for the first time since 2013 and for only the second time in the last six years. It will also wind up as the snowiest since 2013 when 8.6" snow fell.

P.S. I enjoyed today's brief snow squall.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

I think people wouldn't be so down on this current situation if it weren't for the fact that were staring an ugly stable possibly long lasting crappy pattern in the face.  If it was mid december without much significant snow but prospects of a decent pattern heading into new years was on the table we would all be fine.  But were coming to grips that we may have to punt xmas to at least the first week of january.  That puts us into mid january still waiting for any significant snow, not all that different from last year in "ground truth" regardless of how we got there with temps. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Yup...."December to remember" and calls for big long lasting cold have gone out the door.     GFS ensembles were awful with the glacier calls over the Northeast as well.  Honorable mention to models showing a big -NAO only to fall short yet again....

We all know where the "Dec to remember" comment came from.  Legit question here, does the wxbell winter forecast represent both JB and Joe D or is it simply JB's? 

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think people wouldn't be so down on this current situation if it weren't for the fact that were staring an ugly stable possibly long lasting crappy pattern in the face.  If it was mid december without much significant snow but prospects of a decent pattern heading into new years was on the table we would all be fine.  But were coming to grips that we may have to punt xmas to at least the first week of january.  That puts us into mid january still waiting for any significant snow, not all that different from last year in "ground truth" regardless of how we got there with temps. 

Agreed, it was 70F on xmas last season and NYC saw a massive blizzard weeks later

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We all know where the "Dec to remember" comment came from.  Legit question here, does the wxbell winter forecast represent both JB and Joe D or is it simply JB's? 

I believe it's a collaboration b/w him and D'Aleo.   They have that pioneer model which has done well in the cold winters.   It's cold again this year, but I think it was run before the big pool of warm water in the N Pacific flipped to cold.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I believe it's a collaboration b/w him and D'Aleo.   They have that pioneer model which has done well in the cold winters.   It's cold again this year, but I think it was run before the big pool of warm water in the N Pacific flipped to cold.

I ask because Joe D has a video up where he uses Nina climo charts and the QBO to basically explain what is going on and is likely to happen, and he does a pretty good job explaining things as usual, but it clearly shows how with a nina and west qbo there is likely a +NAO and EPO and a huge eastern ridge, kinda like what all the long range guidance looks like lol.  He doesn't argue with it at all and seems to be simply explaining why this is likely and even flatly states that is why there isnt much snow along the east coast.  My "confusion" is if he is part of the process of the winter forecast, why is he stating all that when he has a winter forecast still running of cold and snowing in the very areas he just spent 10 minutes explaining why it will be warm and not snowy?  I personally have some reservations about the whole thing, the QBO isnt so westerly to necessarly have the same effect as some years factored into those analogs.  Plus the nina is pathetic and I would argue were in neutral.  However, we cant deny the drivers he mentioned are going to take over fo a while and dominate the pattern we just don't know if its a week or two or, ugh, more.  I am not sold on how long it lasts yet, but find it weird that he is seemingly trumpeting one thing on his video and another in his forecast.  Its only December 15, its NOT too late to adjust a winter forecast and save face, and more importantly not mislead by running a BS forecast you decided was wrong 2 weeks into a 12 week forecast the whole season. 

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