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Met Winter 2016-17 Banter

dmillz25

By dmillz25,
in New York City Metro

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snywx

snywx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

AVP's 1971-2000 average was 48"...fell to 46.5" for the 1981-2010. Even so, last winter clocked in at less than 1/3 of normal.

I know the pain brother. My long term avg here is right around 50" and last yr finished with roughly 18". By far the worst I've experienced since I've moved up here 20 or so yrs ago. 

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NortheastPAWx

NortheastPAWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, snywx said:

I know the pain brother. My long term avg here is in the low 50s and last yr finished with roughly 18". By far the worst I've experienced since I've moved up here 20 or so yrs ago. 

Yeah, 15-16 was definitely the worst of my life. Of course, I'm expecting the interior winter to happen this year now.

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snywx

snywx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Yeah, 15-16 was definitely the worst of my life. Of course, I'm expecting the interior winter to happen this year now.

The coast has def had the hot hand the past 10-15 yrs. Whats funny is that in that same stretch I've been above normal as well averaging 55.9" in a 14 yr span. 5.9" above normal to their 10" or so above normal in the same span just isn't as impressive. 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

13" above normal here on E. LI last 14 years (using BNL #'s).   That even includes two dud years in the mix.   Works out to 40% above normal for the 14 years...a 46" average annual total.  Pretty amazing stretch.   Hopefully it is not over!

It's really from islip east that's had the amazing stretch. Nassau has done well but nothing compared to out there 

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snywx

snywx

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

13" above normal here on E. LI last 14 years (using BNL #'s).   That even includes two dud years in the mix.   Works out to 40% above normal for the 14 years...a 46" average annual total.  Pretty amazing stretch.   Hopefully it is not over!

Yeah if your long term avg is 33" then yeah thats impressive. Eastern LI has really benefited in recent years. Growing up all I remember is you guys getting dry slotted time and time again.

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RUMG11

RUMG11

Posted
Posted

Any aviation insiders up in here? I got a flight out of Philly 7:45 am Saturday morning. What's my chances here? 

Ill start making calls tomorrow to change stuff up if there potential for flight cancellations.. I just don't know the threshold/criteria airlines use when making these determinations. 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RUMG11 said:

Any avaiation insiders up in here? I got a flight out of Philly 7:45 am Saturday morning. What's my chances here? 

Ill start making calls tomorrow to change stuff up if there potential for flight cancellations..

I would think that's a pretty bad time to fly. It will be all snow still and heavy snow at that. 

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RUMG11

RUMG11

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I think it has more to do with the airport. Since its a morning flight your plane will probably already be there, but the deicing process can take quite a while. 

Yeah, I'm not sure how good Philly is with this stuff. I know the storm is trending warmer and warmer, but it'll likely still be snow at 7:45 am. Just dunno what American Arlines snow threshold is before they pull the plug 

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RUMG11 said:

Yeah, I'm not sure how good Philly is with this stuff. I know the storm is trending warmer and warmer, but it'll likely still be snow at 7:45 am. Just dunno what American Arlines snow threshold is before they pull the plug 

I don't think they'll cancel unless they have to. The airport will be open and trying to keep up.

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Hailstorm

Hailstorm

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, snow1 said:

Can you stop crying? 

He has every right to whine.

The pro-snow/cold folks in this board have been atrocious with their predictions so far this season.

It is downright deplorable and deceptive of them to state that NYC will experience a below-normal period this week. That is pure fabrication; just two days of below-average temps followed by insane warmth for the rest of December does not even closely resemble a cold pattern. I'm sure the general public will view this December as mild at the end.

In fact, no one on here should dare to deem an air mass to be cold unless it is almost certain that our temps will not rise above the 30s for at least 7 consecutive days.

Also, they should not even post any analysis until there is widespread model agreement that a truly cold pattern will take hold five days out.

Instead, everyone should just call it a day and follow Isotherm's prediction of an all-out torch winter. Let it play out. He has correctly nailed the past few winters with solid reasoning.

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dmillz25

dmillz25

Posted
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Posted
1 minute ago, Hailstorm said:

He has every right to whine.

The pro-snow/cold folks in this board have been atrocious with their predictions so far this season.

It is downright deplorable and deceptive of them to state that NYC will experience a below-normal period this week. That is pure fabrication; just two days of below-average temps followed by insane warmth for the rest of December does not even closely resemble a cold pattern. I'm sure the general public will view this December as mild at the end.

In fact, no one on here should dare to deem an air mass to be cold unless it is almost certain that our temps will not rise above the 30s for at least 7 consecutive days.

In fact, they should not even post any analysis until there is widespread model agreement that a truly cold pattern will take hold five days out.

Instead, everyone should just call it a day and follow Isotherm's prediction of an all-out torch winter. Let it play out. He has correctly nailed the past few winters with solid reasoning.

isotherm never said its was going to be an all out torch

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BxEngine

BxEngine

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Hailstorm said:

He has every right to whine.

The pro-snow/cold folks in this board have been atrocious with their predictions so far this season.

It is downright deplorable and deceptive of them to state that NYC will experience a below-normal period this week. That is pure fabrication; just two days of below-average temps followed by insane warmth for the rest of December does not even closely resemble a cold pattern. I'm sure the general public will view this December as mild at the end.

In fact, no one on here should dare to deem an air mass to be cold unless it is almost certain that our temps will not rise above the 30s for at least 7 consecutive days.

Also, they should not even post any analysis until there is widespread model agreement that a truly cold pattern will take hold five days out.

Instead, everyone should just call it a day and follow Isotherm's prediction of an all-out torch winter. Let it play out. He has correctly nailed the past few winters with solid reasoning.

Word yo

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IrishRob17

IrishRob17

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Hailstorm said:

He has every right to whine.

The pro-snow/cold folks in this board have been atrocious with their predictions so far this season.

It is downright deplorable and deceptive of them to state that NYC will experience a below-normal period this week. That is pure fabrication; just two days of below-average temps followed by insane warmth for the rest of December does not even closely resemble a cold pattern. I'm sure the general public will view this December as mild at the end.

In fact, no one on here should dare to deem an air mass to be cold unless it is almost certain that our temps will not rise above the 30s for at least 7 consecutive days.

Also, they should not even post any analysis until there is widespread model agreement that a truly cold pattern will take hold five days out.

Instead, everyone should just call it a day and follow Isotherm's prediction of an all-out torch winter. Let it play out. He has correctly nailed the past few winters with solid reasoning.

Deplorable  

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Eduardo

Eduardo

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

Bluewave with the cancellation of winter in this mornings discussion. Toaster baths are being warmed up as we speak. 

I don't think anyone had cancelled winter per se.  Could be in for a dismal few weeks though.  Still plenty of winter left for good things to happen though.  If forced to endure a craptastic pattern, I'd rather get it over with now before we really start working towards the climatological peak of the season.

It only takes an epic week or two to completely turn a terrible winter into an awesome one (well, for most of us anyway).  Some dark days ahead for sure, but I remain hopeful!

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