Morris Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 On 2/16/2017 at 1:59 PM, Paragon said: Droughts can't be "permanent" anyway. If the climate changes, there is a new normal, therefore what would have been considered a drought years ago, no longer is. Expand If there were to be a permanent drought, the average doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 Crazy how Chicago is having a major ratter of a winter up to date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 On 2/16/2017 at 2:22 PM, dmillz25 said: Crazy how Chicago is having a major ratter of a winter up to date Expand only .6 of an inch of snow since 12/16/16. Possibly due to the lack of strong cutters this winter. Detroit, Cleveland Indy essentially snowless this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 On 2/16/2017 at 2:28 PM, Brian5671 said: only .6 of an inch of snow since 12/16/16. Possibly due to the lack of strong cutters this winter. Detroit, Cleveland Indy essentially snowless this winter. Expand Portland, Maine is the big winner so far with +21.7" snowfall departure through yesterday on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 On 2/16/2017 at 1:42 PM, Paragon said: They'd better get that hole fixed and quickly. I was hearing about how environmentalists warned them a decade ago that something like this could happen. Expand The Oroville Dam's spillway crisis is yet another example of decision makiers ignoring unfavorable information a.k.a. bad risk management. From The Mercury News: More than a decade ago, federal and state officials and some of California’s largest water agencies rejected concerns that the massive earthen spillway at Oroville Dam — at risk of collapse Sunday night and prompting the evacuation of 185,000 people — could erode during heavy winter rains and cause a catastrophe. http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/12/oroville-dam-feds-and-state-officials-ignored-warnings-12-years-ago/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 On 2/16/2017 at 1:34 PM, bluewave said: The wild times continue out west. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 524 AM PST Thu Feb 16 2017 The storm looks to be the strongest storm to hit Southwest California this season. It is likely the strongest within the last six years and possibly even as far back as December 2004 or January 1995. Rainfall amounts between 2-6 inches for the coast and valleys are expected with up to 5-10 inches for the south- facing foothills and coastal mountain slopes. As a result of the heavy rain and antecedent moist soil conditions, a flash flood watch remains in effect for Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties from Friday morning through Saturday morning. Expand Funny you posted this. I am out in LA through Saturday for a friends wedding. I was just reading this and debating if I should even say anything to my buddy. The wedding is tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 On 2/16/2017 at 3:50 PM, tdp146 said: Funny you posted this. I am out in LA through Saturday for a friends wedding. I was just reading this and debating if I should even say anything to my buddy. The wedding is tomorrow. Expand You should Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 CFS still going with the BN idea starting Feb. 27 after the GLC rainstorm on 25th or so. Actually has it near to BN everyday from 3/1--18 !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 On 2/16/2017 at 5:23 PM, CIK62 said: CFS still going with the BN idea starting Feb. 27 after the GLC rainstorm on 25th or so. Actually has it near to BN everyday from 3/1--18 !!! Expand 1st couple of weeks of March look promising. Let's hope it holds. I like the big -EPO shown on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 On 2/16/2017 at 5:42 PM, Brian5671 said: 1st couple of weeks of March look promising. Let's hope it holds. I like the big -EPO shown on the GFS Expand Pretty much everyone is on board with this and it would also fit the seasonal pattern. Note: Jan 8, Feb 9 dates of previous big snows this season, so maybe Mar 10? (although it should be Mar 13 based on the gap between dates- fitting to have a big storm to end the pattern; and I think we get a moderate one at the beginning or in the middle of the pattern, this pattern should be good enough for more than one snow or ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 On 2/16/2017 at 2:28 PM, Brian5671 said: only .6 of an inch of snow since 12/16/16. Possibly due to the lack of strong cutters this winter. Detroit, Cleveland Indy essentially snowless this winter. Expand Not a normal La Nina pattern. In the midwest they usually love La Ninas and hate El Ninos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 On 2/16/2017 at 6:04 PM, Paragon said: Pretty much everyone is on board with this and it would also fit the seasonal pattern. Note: Jan 8, Feb 9 dates of previous big snows this season, so maybe Mar 10? (although it should be Mar 13 based on the gap between dates- fitting to have a big storm to end the pattern; and I think we get a moderate one at the beginning or in the middle of the pattern, this pattern should be good enough for more than one snow or ice storm. Expand I have a business trip early March to FLL. Flying home on the 8th. Let's hope it arrives once I'm back home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Speaking of the EURO teleconnection projections, everything seems to come together by April Fool's Day----no fooling! Throw in an El Chichon Volcano type event and we are all set for an April 06, 1982 like blizzard. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 On 2/17/2017 at 12:44 AM, CIK62 said: Speaking of the EURO teleconnection projections, everything seems to come together by April Fool's Day----no fooling! Throw in an El Chichon Volcano type event and we are all set for an April 06, 1982 like blizzard. LOL Expand In all seriousness world wide we are due for a major volcanic eruption. The last one large enough to have global climactic impact was pinitubo back in the 90s. Something even larger would give us a nice cool down from the current global warming induced furnace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 California is just getting pounded. With another storm due to impact from Sunday-Tuesday. More than just Orville needs to be monitored for breach conditions. Especially with that 12.6" spot, just north of the Orville watershed....good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Hope we are not waiting for this: Referring to the 500mb heights, which should be averaging 5500-5520m att. Barely keeps us near normal after the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 I believe that if Feb. is at least +2.8degs., this winter will make the Top Ten --- what again? We seem destined to finish at >+4degs. right now, so In Like Flint are we. PS. March will have a better chance to be the coldest month than March 1960 had. With all our months finishing near 38deg., this March needs about >-5deg. or so, not the -10deg. of March 1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Congrats ABE.. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=PA&prodtype=discussion#AFDPHI Detailing ACY ABE and ILG for February as per PHL data process input. ABE projects 7th warmest with a 36.1 average, or 5.4 degrees above the norm of 30.7. ABE has less room to give on the down side. Winter (DJF) ABE seasonal average temp projects 34.9 or #6 in the POR back to the winter 1922-23. 0.7 to give to drop out of top 10 so #6 looks pretty solid. For ABE: 23 consecutive months of above normal temps through February of this year with last below normal period, again JFM 2015! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Hopefully we can get 1 of the many modeled cutters to trend.. GFS takes about 3 ULL's into the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 On 2/18/2017 at 3:41 AM, Stormlover74 said: WTF? Expand Kevin martin start a new website? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 On 2/18/2017 at 3:41 AM, Stormlover74 said: WTF? Expand Pending cat 6?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 On 2/18/2017 at 3:56 AM, BxEngine said: Kevin martin start a new website? Expand Contact Us – Southern California Weather Force.com NOTE: Strong filter is on. Any profanity used will be sent straight to the trash and no one here will read it. This is being sent to THE SERVER TECH – Not The Weather Center. Kevin Martin will not answer questions in this LINK. Use this for inquiring about membership and/or other interests you may have. The server tech will respond accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 On 2/18/2017 at 3:59 AM, Stormlover74 said: Contact Us – Southern California Weather Force.com NOTE: Strong filter is on. Any profanity used will be sent straight to the trash and no one here will read it. This is being sent to THE SERVER TECH – Not The Weather Center. Kevin Martin will not answer questions in this LINK. Use this for inquiring about membership and/or other interests you may have. The server tech will respond accordingly. Expand Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 On 2/18/2017 at 3:41 AM, Stormlover74 said: WTF? Expand About to make landfall just north of San Diego Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 I see the "eye" of Lucifer and I'm quite disappointed. I expected to see a 666 there instead....... All kidding aside, didn't a hurricane make landfall near San Diego back in 1858 or somewhere around there? Also, who named this thing Lucifer? According to TWC (who didn't name it) it's the strongest storm to hit So Cal in over 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 On 2/18/2017 at 3:56 AM, Dan76 said: Pending cat 6?? Expand It's Lucifer, it was born a Category 666 ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 Jamstec ENSO update. Not very comforting in the long term. Quote Feb. 18, 2017 Prediction from 1st Feb., 2017ENSO forecast:The SINTEX-F now clearly predicts an El Niño event from this coming summer. This may suggest a decadal turnabout in the tropical Pacific climate condition to El Niño-like state after a long spell of La Niña-like state. If this happens, such natural climate variability may double the global warming impact as we observed during the period from 1976 through 1998. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 On 2/18/2017 at 3:41 AM, Stormlover74 said: WTF? Expand I'm out in LA and the storm was like a typical nor easter. We didn't have any issues being right in the center of the city. I did see a couple trees down. Probably the most interesting aspect was watching locals mesmerized by seeing heavy rain. It was like people in Miami seeing snow for the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 On 2/18/2017 at 6:33 PM, tdp146 said: I'm out in LA and the storm was like a typical nor easter. We didn't have any issues being right in the center of the city. I did see a couple trees down. Probably the most interesting aspect was watching locals mesmerized by seeing heavy rain. It was like people in Miami seeing snow for the first time. I believe they had 2" at the airport so nothing crazySent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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