2016-17 Lakes/Ohio valley snowfall contest

[Roger Smith]

CURRENTLY CLOSEST FORECASTS

This table will be updated each time it snows at various locations. Some time in late March I will post a table of cumulative errors, in other words, contest standings ... as of MAY 3rd, 12 of 20 stations are in a situation where minimum forecast is still higher than snowfall to date. YXU has just edged past minimum forecast but that remains closest. That leaves seven others that are currently held by 2nd lowest (APN  GRR, DTW, YYZ), 4th lowest (MKE) , 7th lowest (LSE) and 10th lowest which is 7th highest in our field of 16 (GRB). One station (GRB) has passed contest average prediction. No stations have yet passed 1986-2015 average values.

(note APN confirmed Tr on 6th, the estimated amount removed from table)

 

LOC'n _ AVG FORECAST __ MIN FORECAST _ MAX FORECAST _ CURRENTLY _ CLOSEST FORECAST

APN _ 82.5 (+2.1) _____ 59.1 (BufWx) ___ 102.1 (DAFF) ______ 66.4 ____ 65.0 Ont snow (2nd low)

ORD _ 39.6 (+1.5) _____28.0 (Ont snow) __ 52.0 (Roger S) ____ 26.1 ____ 28.0 Ont snow

CLE _ 70.5 (+3.3) _____ 46.0 (Ont snow) __ 83.7 (SlimJim101) __37.3 _____46.0 Ont snow

CMH _ 28.2 (--0.2) _____15.6 (madwx) ____ 38.5 (Kokomo wx) __ 9.3 _____ 15.6 madwx

DTW _ 47.4 (+2.6) ____ 35.0 (Slow poke) __ 59.0 (Toronto 4) ___37.9 _____38.6 madwx

FWA _ 34.9 (+0.9) ____ 26.9 (DAFF) _______44.0 (OHweather) _ 18.5 _____26.9 DAFF

GRR _ 77.7 (+0.6) _____50.0 (Ont snow) __ 105.0 (Roger S) ____ 60.1 ____ 62.0 Slow Poke (2nd low)

GRB _ 50.7 (--3.5) ____ 35.5 (Buf wx) _____ 75.0 (OHweather) __ 53.2 _____55.9 Slimjim (7th highest)

IND _ 26.1 (+0.2) _____ 16.0 (Ont snow) ___ 38.6 (Kokomo wx) __9.7 _____ 16.0 Ont snow

LSE _ 45.1 (--1.0) _____ 31.4 (Stebo) ______ 65.0 (OHweather) __42.2_____ 42.3 mad wx (7th low)

YXU _ 81.4 (+5.7) _____64.0 (Slow poke) __ 110.0 (Roger S) ____ 66.1 ____ 64.0 Slow poke

SDF _ 13.8 (--0.1) ______6.0 (Ont snow) ____ 19.2 (weatherbo) ___ 2.7 ______ 6.0 Ont snow

MQT _200.1 (+0.9) ___ 160.0 (Slow poke) __ 250.2 (DAFF) _____ 154.0 ____ 160.0 Slow poke

MKE _ 45.7 (--3.5) _____ 33.4 (Stebo) ______ 57.0 (Roger S) ____ 37.6______ 38.0 Cyclone77 (4th low)

MSP _ 46.2 (--4.4) _____ 36.4 (Stebo) ______ 59.5 (weatherbo) __ 32.0 ______36.4 Stebo

MLI _ 30.7 (--2.8) _____ 22.8 (Buf wx) ______39.2 (confused kitten)_22.4 ____ 22.8 Buf wx

PAH _ 11.5 (+2.3) ______5.0 (Ont snow) ____ 20.0 (Stebo) ________1.2 ______ 5.0 Ont snow

PIA _ 25.7 (+0.8) _____ 19.7 (Buf wx) _______33.0 (Roger S) _____ 13.9 _____ 19.7 Buf wx

STL _ 17.2 (--1.2) ______ 8.0 (Ont snow) ____ 28.8 (Slimjim101) ____3.2 ______ 8.0 Ont snow

YYZ _ 47.4 (+4.9) _____ 26.0 (Ont snow) ____ 65.4 (Toronto4) ____ 32.6 _____ 34.0 slow poke (2nd low) 

 

total _ 1022.5 (+8.6) __ 811.0 (slow poke) __ 1172.0 (Roger S) ___ 726.4 _______ 811.0 Slow poke

[Roger Smith]

---- <<<< Updated standings for 2016-17 snowfall contest >>>> ----

These standings will be updated each day moving forward when there is additional snowfall (latest update May 3rd). The PAE segment indicates errors that can only increase, otherwise your total error is subject to decrease with future snowfalls. You want at least some more snow at all stations except those listed under locations for PAE. There you want no further snowfall to occur.

 

FORECASTER __ Total error (inches) ___ PAE (portion already established) __ Locations for PAE

 

Slow poke _______ 127.4 _______________22.1_________APN, DTW, GRB, LSE, MKE, YXU

Buffalo weather __ 204.8 _______________ 32.5 _____________APN, GRB, LSE, MKE

Ontario snow lover_210.8_______________ 28.1 _____________ GRR, GRB, LSE, YYZ

mad_wx ________ 227.3 ________________ 8.6 _____________ GRB

cyclone77 _______ 275.4 _______________ 10.4 _____________ GRB, LSE

 

1986-2015 avg ___287.5 ________________ 0.0

 

Toronto4 ________297.6 ________________3.6 ______________GRB

 

Contest average __ 301.1 _______________ 2.5 _____________ GRB

 

IWXwx __________327.6 _______________ 0.0

Stebo __________ 333.7 _______________ 26.8 _____________ GRB, LSE, MKE

hawkeye_wx ____ 343.0 ________________ 3.2______________ GRB

Kokomowx ______356.1 ________________ 0.0 

Slimjim 101 _____ 357.2 ________________ 0.0

OHweather _____ 366.6 _________________0.0

DAFF __________ 369.9 ________________15.8 ______________GRB, LSE

weatherbo ______ 384.4 ________________ 0.0

Confused kitten __ 414.1 ________________ 0.0 

Roger Smith _____462.0 ________________ 8.2 _____________ GRB

 

____________________________________________________________________________

(ANALYSIS --updated -- Slow poke leads Buffalo weather by 77.4" and Ontario snow lover by 83.4". All three have been passed by GRB and LSE so the outcome (among them at least) is not affected by further snow at these locations. Slow poke and Buffalo weather share MKE as an error accumulation site, Ontario snow lover can gain on both for another 4.4" -- the gain is double the amount, so if 4.4" falls there, and no other snow affecting the contest falls, Ontario snow lover would edge ahead of Buffalo weather by 4.6". Further snow at MKE would be irrelevant to the contest results (among these three). Beyond those dynamics, Slow poke loses ground with further snow at DTW and YXU, where Buffalo weather has 8.4" and 11.1" left to use up, so if that happened, the lead would shrink from 77.4" to 38.4", while for Ontario snow lover the ifgures are 13.1" and 38.3", probably cannot be totally used up, but needs a total of 41.0" at these two within those bounds to catch up. Now also, Buffalo weather loses ground with further snow at APN, but Slow poke has used his previous 1.5" left and is now accumulating errors there, so that Ontario snow lover has 2.6" or 5.2 advantage against the leader for the next 2.6" that falls at APN. Those are likely to happen so we could assume that the real lead is  respectively (ignoring all other considerations, that means really 72.2 over Ontario snow lover and 76.8 over Buffalo weather.) As to all other stations where these three have not exhausted their forecasts yet, the main challenges that I see for Slow poke are at MQT and YYZ. At MQT, Slow poke has 6.0" left to "use up" and Buffalo weather has 10.7" but Ontario snow lover has 54.0" ... So Buffalo weather can only gain 9.4" there but Ontario snow lover can erase his deficit with 38" over top of the 7.4" or 45.4" more. At YYZ, however, Ontario snow lover is already on defense having used up his prediction, and slow poke has 1.3" to go (a further 2.6" gain is likely there) but Buffalo weather has 14.3 to go, so additions from 1.9 to 14.3 will count double for Buffalo weather.

All things considered, slow poke looks fairly comfortable if MQT doesn't add a lot of new snow. Looking at fourth place mad_wx who has only passed forecast amount at GRB, there is a chance of catching the leader but it would require a substantial amount of new snow at stations mainly in Michigan and Ontario.

I will revisit this if the dynamics of the scoring race change, if you're below fourth, you will need a lot of snow in just the right locations. It happened to some extent in April 2016 so the contest is far from "done" yet. (added 18th, looks about done now though, only MQT has added any snow in two weeks).

[slow poke]

Thanks for putting this together again this year Roger, it would be pretty cool to win the contest, there are some smart people entered. I agree though that we're not done with snow yet unfortunately, we still have a month or more of snow opportunity time left.

[Roger Smith]

These amounts can still fall without changing the order of scoring (everyone would improve the same amount) ...

CLE _____ 8.7"

FWA ____ 8.4"

CMH ____ 6.3"

IND _____6.3"

MQT ____ 6.0"

PIA _____ 5.8"

STL _____ 4.8"

MSP ____ 4.4"

PAH _____3.8"

SDF _____ 3.3"

ORD _____1.9"

MLI _____ 0.4"

(any snow at the other eight stations could already change the order)

Of the above, probably MLI, ORD and MQT are the three most likely to achieve those amounts.

(last update through May 2nd)

 

[Roger Smith]

Update on snowfalls thru April 28th including 0.5" at MQT on 27th ... showing percentage of contest average forecast and minimum forecast (GRB first to pass the minimum forecast on Jan 30th, then GRR on Jan 31st, YYZ on Feb 12, with LSE added Feb 24th, APN March 1st, MKE and DTW March 13th, YXU March 19th).

... ... ... A previous post shows the totals to the end of MARCH ... ... ...

 

APN  had a mixed fall of rain and snow on 6th, the tables as of 19th have given only a trace amount of snow. I have removed the estimated 1.0" from all tables.

Snow also fell at GRR, DTW, CLE, FWA, YYZ and YXU on 6th, and at CLE and YYZ on 7th with 0.5" at MSP on 10th and

 9.0" at MQT on 11th, 0.1" on 16th, 0.3" on 17th, 0.2" 20th, 1.4" on 21st, 0.6" 23rd and 0.5" on 27th.

 

Loc'n _ Total __ % Contest Avg  ___ Contest Minimum (dates when passed)

 

MQT __ 153.1" _________(77%)____ 160.0

APN ____66.4" _________ (81%)____ 59.1 (passed Mar 1)

YXU ___ 66.1" * _______ (79%) ____ 64.0 (passed Mar 19)

GRR ___ 60.1" ________ (78%) _____50.0 (passed Jan 31)

GRB ____53.2" ____________ (105%) 35.5 (passed Jan 30) (contest avg Mar 12)

LSE ____ 42.2" ___________ (93%) _ 31.5 (passed Feb 24)

MKE ____37.6" __________ (86%) __ 33.4 (passed Mar 13)

DTW ___ 37.9" __________(79%) ___ 35.0 (passed Mar 13)

CLE ____ 37.3" ___ (52%) _________ 46.0

YYZ ____32.6" **_____ (72%) _____ 26.0 (passed Feb 12)

MSP ____32.0" _______(69%)______ 36.4

ORD ___ 26.1" ______ (66%) ______ 28.0

MLI ____ 22.4"________ (72%) ____ 22.8

FWA ___ 18.5" ___ (50%) _________ 26.9

PIA ____ 13.9" ____ (54%) ________ 19.7

IND ____ 9.7" _ (37%) ____________ 16.0

CMH ____9.3" _ (34%) ____________ 15.6

STL ___ 3.2" (17%) ________________8.0

SDF ___ 2.7" (18%) ________________6.0

PAH __ 1.2" (12%) _________________5.0

 

TOTAL __ 725.5" ____ (70.9%) ____811.0

 

Tiebreaker 1, ORD (Dec) ___ 17.7" (+8.6 on contest avg, +1.4" on max from KokomoWx) (settled )

Tiebreaker 2, IND (Jan) _____1.7  (min 5.2 from DAFF, mean 10.0, max 23.6) (settled)

Tiebreaker 3, DTW (Feb) ____ 2.2 (min 6.9 from DAFF, mean 14.3, max 22.0) (settled)

___________________________________________

* YXU  updated to April 30th, 0.0 cm on 30th, total of 66.1"

** YYZ  updated to Apr 30th, 0.0 cm,  total 82.7 cm or 32.6".

[Roger Smith]

The contest is more or less finished, I believe, although further snowfall at MQT is likely this month. The table in the previous post shows the totals at all stations at the end of April. Previous posts show the contest standings and a few other factoids, and it can be seen that contest leader Slow Poke has a lead (in terms of total error amounts) of almost 80" over nearest pursuer Buffalo Weather. They both have small amounts left to "use up" at MQT after which third place Ontario snow lover would start gaining on both of them as that forecaster has a lot more left to use up. So the contest essentially hinges on how much further snow will fall at MQT, since I would imagine that all other locations have probably finished for their seasons (APN, GRB and one or two others could conceivably add small amounts). 

Any further snowfalls will be reported in a new post and the previous post is retired to capture the end of April status, but rather than an entire new table, I will just show MQT and contest totals as they change, adding any other stations that report new snowfalls. 

The season runs to June 30th at which point the contest will be final. I don't know if MQT has recorded any June snowfalls in recent years, they do happen in northern Ontario from time to time. 

 

 

[KokomoWX]

Congratulations to Slowpoke for consecutive wins.  

[Roger Smith]

Additional snowfalls in May

MQT 0.9" on 2nd, total now 154.0 

contest total now 726.4"

... contest summaries have been updated 

[michsnowfreak]

Overall a 2nd consecutive subpar with terms for the sub. But looking at snow stats locally is still mind boggling how much of a surplus of snow has fallen here compared to normal the last 10 years.

[slow poke]

11 hours ago, KokomoWX said:

Congratulations to Slowpoke for consecutive wins.  

Thanks KokomoWX , it's probably pretty safe to say we're done with snow for this season. Thanks again for starting this contest Roger, always fun to see what others are thinking when it comes to snowfall amounts for a given season. Won't be long till we start the 17-18 contest, maybe 5 months or so, for what it's worth, I'm thinking cooler then average with slightly higher then normal snowfall pretty much everywhere but Detroit! LOL....

[michsnowfreak]

38 minutes ago, slow poke said:

Thanks KokomoWX , it's probably pretty safe to say we're done with snow for this season. Thanks again for starting this contest Roger, always fun to see what others are thinking when it comes to snowfall amounts for a given season. Won't be long till we start the 17-18 contest, maybe 5 months or so, for what it's worth, I'm thinking cooler then average with slightly higher then normal snowfall pretty much everywhere but Detroit! LOL....

Lol. So what are you thinking then for Detroit?