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10-27 First flakes OBS


UlsterCountySnowZ

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On October 26, 2016 at 8:28 AM, TriPol said:

Any chance for a flurry or two in the NYC area?

The forecast sounding for 12z on Thursday in NYC shows the chance of some sleet at the very start.

It has a shallow warm layer around 800 mb with a subfreezing layer right below at 850-900 mb.

 

Date: 30 hour AVN valid 12Z THU 27 OCT 16
Station: 40.60,-74.13
Latitude:   40.60
Longitude: -74.13
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1020    87   5.2  -0.3  68  5.5   2.8  61   7 276.8 277.4 275.0 286.8  3.66
  1 1000   249   4.0  -2.0  65  6.0   1.6  69  12 277.2 277.8 274.8 286.3  3.31
  2  950   665   1.4  -3.5  70  4.9  -0.5 107  11 278.6 279.2 275.2 287.3  3.10
  3  900  1098  -1.2  -4.6  78  3.4  -2.5 156   8 280.2 280.7 276.0 288.7  3.02
  4  850  1554  -0.0  -3.3  78  3.3  -1.4 225  14 286.1 286.7 279.6 296.2  3.51
  5  800  2040   0.4   0.0  97  0.4   0.3 245  26 291.6 292.5 283.6 305.5  4.80
  6  750  2559   0.2  -0.8  94  0.9  -0.3 255  34 296.8 297.6 285.7 311.0  4.83
  7  700  3110  -2.6  -3.5  94  0.9  -3.0 260  38 299.6 300.4 286.2 312.3  4
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7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Looking at hi res radar, u less poorly depicted,  the mix line does not wanna hold its ground, if radars correct most of us will be pellets to rain by 10am

The mix line was suppose to set up right along the NY/NJ border. We should start seeing a changeover by 10-11. Im just happy to see snow falling and actually sticking nonetheless

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On 10/24/2016 at 0:29 PM, forkyfork said:

if you live anywhere within the metro area expect a cold rain from start to finish. temps are ~40 on the gfs when precip starts. lol

Wrong , started as snow than went to sleet   Now rain and sleet

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Radar looked promising, but I'm nearly all sleet at this point, few flakes mixed in... weatherboards not even worth measuring, 1/4 inch maybe, but enough to coat the trees and grass. I'll take it

Same here.. light coating on all non-paved surfaces.

32° Light freezing rain/Sleet 

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