UlsterCountySnowZ Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 GFS has slowing increased totals southward run by run with a front end snow chance on a sweeping front Thursday. Euro/ggem/nam all have the storm with front end snows, but accumulations vary, GFS is by far the most bullish, euro is a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted October 24, 2016 Author Share Posted October 24, 2016 Closer shot at GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 If I had to make a prediction for NJ, I'd say you would want to be at least 600ft plus, maybe more. I only expect some flakes to fly here. It really all depends how early the precip comes in, and if there's enough cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted October 24, 2016 Author Share Posted October 24, 2016 I really don't expect much in terms of accumulations, but some snow flying in the air would be worth it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Its been trending colder with each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 On 10/24/2016 at 2:06 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I really don't expect much in terms of accumulations, but some snow flying in the air would be worth it Expand Yeah, I think you're in a pretty good location compared to where I am for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Upton.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 stop using wxbell snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 On 10/24/2016 at 4:13 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Happy? Expand Slightly colder than last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 if you live anywhere within the metro area expect a cold rain from start to finish. temps are ~40 on the gfs when precip starts. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 On 10/24/2016 at 4:29 PM, forkyfork said: if you live anywhere within the metro area expect a cold rain from start to finish. temps are ~40 on the gfs when precip starts. lol Expand Nice day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Starting to look real interesting for areas 40+ miles NW of NYC. 12z run looks colder than 06z on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted October 24, 2016 Author Share Posted October 24, 2016 GGEM cuts the snow line off around 84, north is a dusting maybe 1-2", you gotta go to Albany points north for higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Its just nice to see snow in the forecast again. I consider any accumulation this early in the game as a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted October 24, 2016 Author Share Posted October 24, 2016 On 10/24/2016 at 4:37 PM, snywx said: Its just nice to see snow in the forecast again. I consider any accumulation this early in the game as a bonus Expand Considering the last 2 winters have been south of 84, a couple slushy inches washed away by cold rain would put me in a great mood to start the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 On 10/24/2016 at 4:34 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GGEM cuts the snow line off around 84, north is a dusting maybe 1-2", you gotta go to Albany points north for higher Expand Colder than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 On 10/24/2016 at 4:32 PM, Snow88 said: Nice day Expand Fall like! And below avg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 On 10/24/2016 at 5:08 PM, Allsnow said: Fall like! And below avg Expand It's about time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted October 24, 2016 Author Share Posted October 24, 2016 Euro is finally on board with advisory level snow for the NW burbs before a changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted October 25, 2016 Author Share Posted October 25, 2016 00z euro still on board for 2-3+ for extreme NW Burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Eps has 1-2 for far nw jersey and pocs. Temps are in the 30's near the burbs Thursday morning so I wouldn't be surprised if some areas see cats paws/mix to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/24/2016 at 4:29 PM, forkyfork said: if you live anywhere within the metro area expect a cold rain from start to finish. temps are ~40 on the gfs when precip starts. lol Expand Temps have tended colder on last nights gfs run. Not saying it snows on the coast but a brief mix to rain not out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 IMO unless you are in Northern Rockland county on northward, this is a cold rain from start to finish. I can see areas from Northern Rockland, orange and SullivanCounty pick up a nice 1-4 inches. Depending on elevation and evaporational cooling of course. NYC metro on south will have to wait until deep into November to see any appreciable snow fall threats if not later, while the pattern transitions to troughiness in the east and Ridging in the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/25/2016 at 4:22 PM, REDMK6GLI said: IMO unless you are in Northern Rockland county on northward, this is a cold rain from start to finish. I can see areas from Northern Rockland, orange and SullivanCounty pick up a nice 1-4 inches. Depending on elevation and evaporational cooling of course. NYC metro on south will have to wait until deep into November to see any appreciable snow fall threats if not later, while the pattern transitions to troughiness in the east and Ridging in the west Expand Even up here its gonna be elevation driven. Anyone under 500' will prob only see wet flakes with maybe a coating. You are gonna have to go above 1000' to see any legit accumulation (1-3"). As for MBY im expecting 1" the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/25/2016 at 4:22 PM, REDMK6GLI said: IMO unless you are in Northern Rockland county on northward, this is a cold rain from start to finish. I can see areas from Northern Rockland, orange and SullivanCounty pick up a nice 1-4 inches. Depending on elevation and evaporational cooling of course. NYC metro on south will have to wait until deep into November to see any appreciable snow fall threats if not later, while the pattern transitions to troughiness in the east and Ridging in the west Expand Rockland is NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 the models are slowing down the start time which doesn't bode well for the snow hopers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/25/2016 at 4:48 PM, BxEngine said: Rockland is NYC metro. Expand I should have said COASTAL PLAIN. Clearly you are not on the coastal plain in Rockland county lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/25/2016 at 4:57 PM, forkyfork said: the models are slowing down the start time which doesn't bode well for the snow hopers Expand Nope it does not. However, atleast now on some of the longer range forecast models we are seeing a more significant change to a more conducive pattern for snow as we head deeper into November. This includes IMMEDIATE NYC METRO as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 On 10/25/2016 at 4:22 PM, REDMK6GLI said: IMO unless you are in Northern Rockland county on northward, this is a cold rain from start to finish. I can see areas from Northern Rockland, orange and SullivanCounty pick up a nice 1-4 inches. Depending on elevation and evaporational cooling of course. NYC metro on south will have to wait until deep into November to see any appreciable snow fall threats if not later, while the pattern transitions to troughiness in the east and Ridging in the west Expand Even northern Rockland county is not seeing 1-4 inches. Maybe 1-4 flakes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted October 26, 2016 Author Share Posted October 26, 2016 GFS/Nam still jackpot parts of Sullivan with 3-6", 84 northward a general 1-2"... I still highly doubt actual accumulation unless 800+ft elevation, for my neck of the woods, I'm expecting white rain, maybe a grassy dusting to an inch, if precip can move in fast and hang on longer... WAA snows usually come in faster than modeled, with better intensity, regardless it's all getting washed away by noon, but I'd take it after last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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