Governor McCrory Hurricane Rating Proposal

[NWNC2015]

Most were focused on the media headlines of Category 1 and Tropical Storm in North Carolina. Should we look at something more than just the wind speeds in the eyewall that affect very few?

Link to WRAL story:

http://www.wral.com/mccrory-wants-changes-to-hurricane-ratings/16104107/

 

[DopplerWx]

This would just open a can of worms, what is the NHC supposed to do?  Issue hurricane warnings for inland areas that models show could have >5" of rain?  >10"?  What is considered a cat 3?  120mph winds?  a storm with 75mph winds but 10" of rainfall forecasted?

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, DopplerWx said:

This would just open a can of worms, what is the NHC supposed to do?  Issue hurricane warnings for inland areas that models show could have >5" of rain?  >10"?  What is considered a cat 3?  120mph winds?  a storm with 75mph winds but 10" of rainfall forecasted?

I agree. That's why you have flood warnings. Our states Emergency Management just has to work more closer with NOAA to identify when flooding will become a widespread issue. A tropical depression or any other type of storm can drop more rain than a cat 5 hurricane (if path and duration is right).   

[jshetley]

23 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I agree. That's why you have flood warnings. Our states Emergency Management just has to work more closer with NOAA to identify when flooding will become a widespread issue. A tropical depression or any other type of storm can drop more rain than a cat 5 hurricane (if path and duration is right).   

Yeah just look back at Alberto in 1994. It was only a tropical storm, but it stalled for days in GA and devastated many areas there. 

[the ghost of leroy]

Maybe he'd have more credibility with NOAA if official NC policy wasn't an anti-science denial of climate change.  

[nrgjeff]

Integrated Kinetic Energy IKE or other total energy measurement might be better, especially for wind. IKE can also be helpful for storm surge since size matters.

[NWNC2015]

I like how other countries do it who experience more of this weather, no cat label but words like severe, strong, code red, et cetera. Too much focus from the weather channel and local media on Cat label let's be honest. More focus should be on track and inland impacts vs the coastal county who sees X winds. 

[J.C.]

I wish they would report the hurricanes actual sustained winds near the surface rather than what the reconnaissance plane says.  If a Hurricane is reported to have sustained winds of 75 MPH, there is never any sustained winds anywhere close to that, maybe a one or two gusts close, but that is it.   

[the ghost of leroy]

1 hour ago, J.C. said:

I wish they would report the hurricanes actual sustained winds near the surface rather than what the reconnaissance plane says.  If a Hurricane is reported to have sustained winds of 75 MPH, there is never any sustained winds anywhere close to that, maybe a one or two gusts close, but that is it.   

that's what they do now. recon measures ACTUAL winds at the surface with dropsondes.  just guessing and making up a number because landfalling hurricanes experience frictional effects seems like a step back.

[NWNC2015]

I would give it a category raise or bump up just for threatening land. And then minus one for the fish or offshore out to sea non-impact storms. Public isn't interested in the CAT5 going north-east of Bermuda. 

[jburns]

In the US, three out of four deaths in hurricanes are caused by water not wind.  Nine out of ten news stories about an approaching hurricane focus on wind speed with a mention at the end of flooding also expected. I'm not sure of the solution but an effort should be made to deemphasize wind speed and increase the discussions of the danger of widespread flooding. 

[NWNC2015]

Esp. in short weather segments in the local news, top of the hour, etc. all local mets do is layout the "newest advisory" with the focus on latest and greatest recon info. 

The public needs track, timing, and inland impacts. Raleigh, Charlotte, doesn't need to know which beach might get 155mph winds. That beach is going to be long evacuated anyways. 

Generic Sample:

Code Yellow Flood Potential X based on antecedent conditions or amounts X, Storm Surge X, Inland Winds <= 50 mph

Code Orange Flood Potential X based on antecedent conditions or amounts X, Storm Surge X, Inland Winds 51-100 mph

Code Red Flood Potential X based on antecedent conditions or amounts X, Storm Surge X, Inland Winds > 100 mph

[jburns]

14 hours ago, NWNC2015 said:

Esp. in short weather segments in the local news, top of the hour, etc. all local mets do is layout the "newest advisory" with the focus on latest and greatest recon info. 

The public needs track, timing, and inland impacts. Raleigh, Charlotte, doesn't need to know which beach might get 155mph winds. That beach is going to be long evacuated anyways. 

Generic Sample:

Code Yellow Flood Potential X based on antecedent conditions or amounts X, Storm Surge X, Inland Winds <= 50 mph

Code Orange Flood Potential X based on antecedent conditions or amounts X, Storm Surge X, Inland Winds 51-100 mph

Code Red Flood Potential X based on antecedent conditions or amounts X, Storm Surge X, Inland Winds > 100 mph

 

I'm not a fan of color alerts.  The didn't work with terror after 9/11 and I doubt they would be any more effective with hurricanes.