Jim Martin Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Here is what CoachLB and LoveSN+ are referring to. This morning's 12z GFS in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 The lack of snow cover over southern Canada is not good for cold down here later on... some snow should fall over the Northern Plains and southern Canada next week..but GFS and Euro differ on how much cold will get dumped down after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 First freeze and hard freeze here this morning at 26. MLI also hit 26, and DVN bottomed out at 23. See ya later mosquitoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Yup growing season officially donezo, bottomed out at 29 last night, hopefully mowing season door has shut as well. The weather has been zzzz lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 point for tonight is 33 imby, with clear skies and light wind, I'd wager we overperform and go lower. I'm expecting ~30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Now we are getting in range of next weekend's projected storm system... This afternoon's GFS model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 going to have no snow on opening firearm day for the second year in a row. 2 years ago there was 32" on the ground imby after a 42" 3 day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 It has not only been warm this November it has been sunny as well. November it generally a very cloudy month here in West Michigan with GRR have on average only a 26% chance of sunshine, but this year so far in the first 11 days with have had 7 clear days and 3 partly cloudy days and only 2 cloudy days. Last year GR had 6 clear days in the whole month of November in 2014 and 2013 there was 1 clear day each. In 2013 there was 0 clear days and in 2011 there were 5 clear days. And with the sun out today and several sunny days this week we look to have a much sunnier November than average here in Grand Rapids. BTW the sunniest November was in 1939 were 56.6% of possible sunshine was reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 While should turn colder for a while after next week and yes we even have a chance of seeing some snow. But snow in November is very common here, in fact only two November in Grand Rapids history have not had any reported snow fall. They were the back to back Novembers of 1906 and 1907. Here in Grand Rapids there were 4 other winters with a Trace reported 1931, 1946, 1984 and 2001. And three November with 0.1” reported 1905, 1927, and 2010. All other November have had more than .2” of snow with the most being 31.0” in 2014 and 26.9” in 1951 for 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 Looking at the 12Z GFs on Tropical Tidbits, looks like lots of changes for snow may be in the future. The drought may be ending! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 Nice looking cold shot setting up for this weekend. GEFS and EPS diverge in pattern >240 hr. GEFS tries to build in an eastern trough, and EPS has western trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 12z Euro drops the late week system down to 982mb over western MN Thursday night. Huge blizzard over the western Dakotas. Frontal system associated with it looks pretty benign until passing through the MS valley area. You folks to the east could get some showers and storms. Looks like a big bag of wind and a cool off here. Still more exciting than the last 3-4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 8 hours ago, weatherbo said: going to have no snow on opening firearm day for the second year in a row. 2 years ago there was 32" on the ground imby after a 42" 3 day storm. Such a good month. I really like Marquettes detail in their snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 57 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 12z Euro drops the late week system down to 982mb over western MN Thursday night. Huge blizzard over the western Dakotas. Frontal system associated with it looks pretty benign until passing through the MS valley area. You folks to the east could get some showers and storms. Looks like a big bag of wind and a cool off here. Still more exciting than the last 3-4 weeks. Yeah, its Mid November. Let the cold and flakes fly! The last few runs of all models bring in enough cold for some snow from next weekend on. The AO goes negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 IWX mentioned the S word for the first time today, mentioning the possibility of some lake enhancement with the post frontal trough next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 18z gfs is a torch the entire run pretty much outside of that transient cold shot next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 8 hours ago, slimjim101 said: While should turn colder for a while after next week and yes we even have a chance of seeing some snow. But snow in November is very common here, in fact only two November in Grand Rapids history have not had any reported snow fall. They were the back to back Novembers of 1906 and 1907. Here in Grand Rapids there were 4 other winters with a Trace reported 1931, 1946, 1984 and 2001. And three November with 0.1” reported 1905, 1927, and 2010. All other November have had more than .2” of snow with the most being 31.0” in 2014 and 26.9” in 1951 for 2nd By looking at the GFS, you will have snow over the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Got up to 57 here today. Right near average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 18 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Got up to 57 here today. Right near average. 58 here... 19 degrees above the norm. Feels like it's never going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 15 minutes ago, weatherbo said: 58 here... 19 degrees above the norm. Feels like it's never going to snow. Wow! That's crazy. At least it's only November. With the cold air this weekend I'm sure you'll get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 45 minutes ago, weatherbo said: 58 here... 19 degrees above the norm. Feels like it's never going to snow. Wow, it was warmer up there than here today. I know that it's crazy, but I did put up some Christmas lights today so I wouldn't have to do it when it's cold. (Not lighting them up yet). I must be missing something by not visiting the political thread per your sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 14 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Wow, it was warmer up there than here today. I know that it's crazy, but I did put up some Christmas lights today so I wouldn't have to do it when it's cold. (Not lighting them up yet). I must be missing something by not visiting the political thread per your sig. Don't do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 2 hours ago, weatherbo said: Don't do it PR is a no-no, never go there. ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 They need Bob Ross to paint happy trees over there in PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Euros cooler than the GFS with the upcoming systems, something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 It has been not only mild this November it has also been much sunnier than average. Here in West Michigan we not have had 8 sunny days and 3 partly cloudy days. I can not recall such a sunny period in November. Even with the cool down we are now so much above average (+7.0) that we should end the month above average. Of course, the expected big “turn around” is now being expected in December. While it may happen then or it could happen in January or February or it may not happen until March. While our string of above average months will end, I am not good enough to forecast when that will happen. But it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 GFS continues to bring the pain to the northern MW and Plains. Dumps almost 2 feet of wind driven snow over northwest MN by Saturday. 45-55mph wind gusts along the heavy snow swath as well. Very impressive baroclinic zone over MN Friday. MSP area could be in the 60s, while a few hundred miles north/west will be in a full-on blizzard. Glanced at the GEM too for the heck of it, and got a nice laugh. It completely blanks the areas the Euro and GFS have consistently dumped heavy snow on, and instead dumps the heavy snow from Iowa into Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Classic fall system. Will be nice to see one of those again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: GFS continues to bring the pain to the northern MW and Plains. Dumps almost 2 feet of wind driven snow over northwest MN by Saturday. 45-55mph wind gusts along the heavy snow swath as well. Very impressive baroclinic zone over MN Friday. MSP area could be in the 60s, while a few hundred miles north/west will be in a full-on blizzard. Glanced at the GEM too for the heck of it, and got a nice laugh. It completely blanks the areas the Euro and GFS have consistently dumped heavy snow on, and instead dumps the heavy snow from Iowa into Wisconsin. I saw the 12z global Gem as well. and damn, talk about a big shift. it wasn't too far off from the GFS. Further south, yes, but still not too far off. Then this run comes in, and wow talk about a dive south. it goes from blasting areas from the North shore to St Cloud to Alexandria to Aberdeen; to like you said, go Ironwood to Wausau to Rochester MN to Des Moines. Definitely have to not consider this Canadian Global run much more than weenie candy, unless the Euro pulls a surprise in this upcoming run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 11 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said: I saw the 12z global Gem as well. and damn, talk about a big shift. it wasn't too far off from the GFS. Further south, yes, but still not too far off. Then this run comes in, and wow talk about a dive south. it goes from blasting areas from the North shore to St Cloud to Alexandria to Aberdeen; to like you said, go Ironwood to Wausau to Rochester MN to Des Moines. Definitely have to not consider this Canadian Global run much more than weenie candy, unless the Euro pulls a surprise in this upcoming run. The GFS has been sinking the heavy snow further south over the last several runs since 0z. Not nearly to the extent the GEM is, but there is a trend. Should be a fun few days of model watching. But you're right, the 12z GEM is pure candy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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