November 2016 General Discussion

[Chitown Storm]

Clear skies and no wind overnight should do the trick here in MSP tonight. I still have raspberries growing as of this morning. Heck I still have a tomato plant with fruit on it. I pulled the dock out of the lake 3 weeks ago. Going forward I'm letting the weather dictate when I take it out, not the calendar. I'm missing some awesome weather on the water. 

[slimjim101]

So far Grand Rapids average mean temperature for this November is 53.0° and the is +8.9° Over at Lansing the mean is 52.8 and that is good for +9.3° and in Muskegon the mean so far is 52.5 and that is +8.6° While that will change as we get deeper into the month there is a good chance that this month will be warmer than average in west Michigan. Tonight, looks to be the first freeze (32°) here at GRR if so the frost free season this year will be either 212 or 213 days depending of if it occurs before or after midnight (the last freeze at GRR was April 13^th) Of note is that so far this year only April has been below average and April is the only month that has been below average going all the way back to last August. I would say that we are overdue for month(s) of below average temperatures it just a question of when.

 

[weatherbo]

Feeling a little more like November today. Had some snow showers earlier which left skiff of snow on the deck. Coldest night of the season coming tonight with a low forecasted to be 22. Coldest imby has been 24.

normals are 40/25. Running 12.8 above for the month to date.

[Younar]

22 minutes ago, Chitown Storm said:

Clear skies and no wind overnight should do the trick here in MSP tonight. I still have raspberries growing as of this morning. Heck I still have a tomato plant with fruit on it. I pulled the dock out of the lake 3 weeks ago. Going forward I'm letting the weather dictate when I take it out, not the calendar. I'm missing some awesome weather on the water. 

Yeah my geraniums and petunias are still going strong. I even have a date with the lawn mower this weekend... hopefully my last one of the season but may need to bust it out again next weekend depending on how tonight goes. I like the cooler look For our neck of the woods in the long range on the models but as always is the case, it keeps getting pushed back. I think initially the "pattern change"/transient cool shot was advertised on the GFS for this weekend. Alas it still looks like a week plus out.

[hawkeye_wx]

The rural CR airport location has already had a few freezes, but tonight will be the first for us in the city.  It has been nice having some of my tender salvias in full bloom into mid November, but I'm ready to get everything cut down for winter.

[slimjim101]

There is still little evidence of a substantial cool down and there are some indications that it may now stay warm into the start of December.
Here is some of Accuweather’s Brett Anderson’s ideas for the end of November and the start of December.
“Despite some high latitude blocking, the forecast model continues the idea that milder, Pacific air will continue to flood much of the country through the end of the month, with just brief incursions of cold air from the north. A strong trough over the north Pacific is the dominant factor right now and it will likely remain that way for the next 2-3 weeks”
And he goes on to state
“The problem for those who want to see a sustained outbreak of cold air is the fact that the core of the Arctic air is currently on the other side of the pole (over Siberia) and there are no immediate signs that it will shift to our side of the pole. Until we see a shift in the North Pacific pattern it will be very difficult to get Arctic air into southern Canada and the northern US.”
That is his interpretation of the ECMWF forecast model weeklies
 

[DAFF]

1 hour ago, slimjim101 said:

There is still little evidence of a substantial cool down and there are some indications that it may now stay warm into the start of December.
Here is some of Accuweather’s Brett Anderson’s ideas for the end of November and the start of December.
“Despite some high latitude blocking, the forecast model continues the idea that milder, Pacific air will continue to flood much of the country through the end of the month, with just brief incursions of cold air from the north. A strong trough over the north Pacific is the dominant factor right now and it will likely remain that way for the next 2-3 weeks”
And he goes on to state
“The problem for those who want to see a sustained outbreak of cold air is the fact that the core of the Arctic air is currently on the other side of the pole (over Siberia) and there are no immediate signs that it will shift to our side of the pole. Until we see a shift in the North Pacific pattern it will be very difficult to get Arctic air into southern Canada and the northern US.”
That is his interpretation of the ECMWF forecast model weeklies
 

Seems to be a logical explanation to me. As we inch closer to winter these swings of temperatures are heading in the right direction, slow and steady colder over the past few weeks. While a big blast of cold generally in this time frame of fall/winter is short lived, with warmth rebounding back in as quickly as the cold hit. Sustained cold will be here before we know it.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

18Z GFS gives a widespread 1-3 inches of snow in the pre 240 hour range. That would be nice.

[GTAWX1993]

3 hours ago, slimjim101 said:

There is still little evidence of a substantial cool down and there are some indications that it may now stay warm into the start of December.
Here is some of Accuweather’s Brett Anderson’s ideas for the end of November and the start of December.
“Despite some high latitude blocking, the forecast model continues the idea that milder, Pacific air will continue to flood much of the country through the end of the month, with just brief incursions of cold air from the north. A strong trough over the north Pacific is the dominant factor right now and it will likely remain that way for the next 2-3 weeks”
And he goes on to state
“The problem for those who want to see a sustained outbreak of cold air is the fact that the core of the Arctic air is currently on the other side of the pole (over Siberia) and there are no immediate signs that it will shift to our side of the pole. Until we see a shift in the North Pacific pattern it will be very difficult to get Arctic air into southern Canada and the northern US.”
That is his interpretation of the ECMWF forecast model weeklies
 

I am betting that there will be more below normal temperatures in the 2nd half of December than the 1st half, but with the way 2016 has been, who knows.

[GTAWX1993]

8 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Feeling a little more like November today. Had some snow showers earlier which left skiff of snow on the deck. Coldest night of the season coming tonight with a low forecasted to be 22. Coldest imby has been 24.

normals are 40/25. Running 12.8 above for the month to date.

I wore my winter jacket for the first time since October 27th today. It was quite cold out in the wind today, even though daytime highs were not far off from seasonal.

[GTAWX1993]

8 hours ago, slimjim101 said:

So far Grand Rapids average mean temperature for this November is 53.0° and the is +8.9° Over at Lansing the mean is 52.8 and that is good for +9.3° and in Muskegon the mean so far is 52.5 and that is +8.6° While that will change as we get deeper into the month there is a good chance that this month will be warmer than average in west Michigan. Tonight, looks to be the first freeze (32°) here at GRR if so the frost free season this year will be either 212 or 213 days depending of if it occurs before or after midnight (the last freeze at GRR was April 13^th) Of note is that so far this year only April has been below average and April is the only month that has been below average going all the way back to last August. I would say that we are overdue for month(s) of below average temperatures it just a question of when.

 

 

This November has been very similar to 1975 here. That coming winter had a normal December, cold January, and mild February-March.

[michsnowfreak]

Sunrise this morning.

 

[Jim Martin]

28 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Sunrise this morning.

 

Not a bad way to start the day.

[stormtrackertf]

The last night it dropped to 32 or lower at Detroit was April 12th. Tonight, that streak should be ended pretty easily. Already below freezing IMBY, also for the first time since April 12th.

Were there any frost/freeze headlines for Wayne county this fall? Not the most uncommon thing to happen in an UHI, but it's always interesting when we hold off on any true freezes until after the growing season has ended, thus never getting any headlines for it locally.

[cyclone77]

Lol, MLI missed tying the latest freeze on record by less than an hour.  Temp dipped to freezing sometime between 11pm and midnight.  

[snowlover2]

27 here right now. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[IWXwx]

18 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Lol, MLI missed tying the latest freeze on record by less than an hour.  Temp dipped to freezing sometime between 11pm and midnight.  

Wow, that's as close as you can come. I think FWA made it for a tie, but I'll have to check.

Sitting at 26° right now, so not only the first 32, but right into a hard freeze.

[michsnowfreak]

DTW got down to 29, DET 28, and mby 28. The cold spot, of course, ARB at 17F, though pretty much everyone was solidly in the 20s. Also, working on 8 hours below freezing at DTW, more in outlying areas, so this certainly should end any remaining bugs or what not.

[csnavywx]

Sooner or later, AA and AGW was going to start to bite. Well, it's later:

[slimjim101]

Grand Rapids (GRR) finally got down to 32° But it looks like it happened after midnight so 2016 will now be the second latest first 32 reading in GRR history (first place remains November 14^th 1918)  Here at my house I had a low of 22° at my colder location (low spot in back yard) to 25 nearer to the house.  Nice clear crisp morning here with lots of frost. Right now at 8:40 its 27° IMBY.

 

[csnavywx]

Even if you did have a Pacific pattern that was favorable at this point, we'd still be struggling to go below average. As it stands, we don't have a link to any decent cold air source, except maybe a pathetically small region over the Canadian Archipelago. If you think that map in the last post was just an aberration, you'd only be half right, it's been like that all fall:

[Chitown Storm]

Looks like the streak lives on for another week at this point. Only got down to 34 at the MSP airport. Although many of the suburbs got down into the upper 20s. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The CR airport is usually one of the colder spots, but, oddly, it was among the least cold this morning, briefly dipping below 30(to 28) intra-hour.  Many locations across the state reached the mid 20s.  Here in the city, the school weather stations bottomed out in the low 30s.  I'm guessing 30 or 31 here in my yard.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Got down to 24 last night. 

[GTAWX1993]

Temperatures got down into the 24F-27F range here last night. The coldest since probably April 10th 2016.

[hlcater]

24 here...

[harrisale]

21 F for the low last night. The cold starting to return as small talk. 

[KM_F]

31 was the low here in NE Iowa.

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[LoveSN+]

Ohio weenie 12Z GFS run.

[CoachLB]

Yea for the NE. Cold rain for the western half.