November 2016 General Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

flakes in the UP

 

[weatherbo]

stop torturing weenies.

41 and a due north wind this afternoon...Normal high is 42.  Gonna bounce back up quick.  This weekend Marquette reached 70, being only the second time this late since 1885.  For the month, running 12.9 above the norm.

[Chambana]

Alek can't handle the new trend of bi yearly 20" ORD crush jobs. Those freakin groundhogs man! 

[Jonger]

Alek is trying too hard. Like storm timing is a perfected science 11 days out. it's the same storm.

[BuffaloWeather]

Most if not all of the cold air is now gone in the long range. Going to be until December for us to get any cold air. Quite the shift in the last few weeks.

[GTAWX1993]

This fall has so far been similar to 2005 here in the Great Lakes (The weather since mid-June in general has been similar to that year), which also had a cool ENSO Neutral/weak La Nina scenario. The early November warmth that year started to break down on the 16th, and it was generally chilly the rest of the month well into the 1st few weeks of December. So far, it does not look like we will see any sustainable periods of below normal temperatures until at least December.

[osubrett2]

It's not even this dead in late July or early August, yikes.

But a typical "Ohio gray" day outside. Afternoon temperature in the upper 40s, overcast skies, windy. Days like these is what makes this time of year depressing.

[Hoosier]

56 minutes ago, osubrett2 said:

It's not even this dead in late July or early August, yikes.

But a typical "Ohio gray" day outside. Afternoon temperature in the upper 40s, overcast skies, windy. Days like these is what makes this time of year depressing.

Election hangover? 

[Chambana]

Boy I tell you hawat (hank hill voice) this is the sunniest damn fall I've ever seen, the lack of dark gray, rain filled leaf dropping days has been discouraging .

[IWXwx]

3 hours ago, osubrett2 said:

It's not even this dead in late July or early August, yikes.

But a typical "Ohio gray" day outside. Afternoon temperature in the upper 40s, overcast skies, windy. Days like these is what makes this time of year depressing.

It is very quiet. I've really enjoyed the weather this fall, but within two weeks I'll be weenieing out at the extended op GFS.

EDIT: Josh will be vehemently disagreeing with the depressing statement.

[GTAWX1993]

6 hours ago, osubrett2 said:

It's not even this dead in late July or early August, yikes.

But a typical "Ohio gray" day outside. Afternoon temperature in the upper 40s, overcast skies, windy. Days like these is what makes this time of year depressing.

Today has felt super cold here, even though it has been in reality just an average November day. This is what happens when the first 8 days are so warm. The sunshine and warmth return tomorrow .

[Younar]

Interesting commentary in the MPX afternoon AFD about the current state of the PDO, our La Nina and the [potential] evolution of our pattern.
 

Taking a look at the current La Nina pattern and associated winter
weather bias, it usually means a cooler northern United States.
However, this hasn`t been the case. There is another longer range
parameter Meteorologist look at which is called PDO or Pacific
Decadal Oscillation. Since the fall of 2014, this parameter has
been positive, which means warmer waters flowing northward from
the tropics. This is typical for an El Nino pattern and has been
mostly correct for our weather over the past two winters. Only in
the past 3 months has the PDO shifted cooler or negative, which is
a sign of cooler La Nina waters flowing northward toward the Gulf
of Alaska. Usually this shift is associated with an La Nina
pattern which is currently developing. However, in an La Nina
pattern the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest is usually cooler. This
hasn`t happened and was wondering what will develop in the next
month of two. There is an article on the PDO/La Nina comparison
which discusses this issue. (www.agweb.com/blog/the- weather-
whisperer /duel-in-the- pacific). What was stated is if the PDO is
more in control, we could see the change in the next month to a
more cooler pattern. La Nina basically correlates to this fact of
a cooler pattern, but it just hasn`t developed yet.

[Jim Martin]

Interesting...

[GTAWX1993]

11 hours ago, Younar said:

Interesting commentary in the MPX afternoon AFD about the current state of the PDO, our La Nina and the [potential] evolution of our pattern.
 

Taking a look at the current La Nina pattern and associated winter
weather bias, it usually means a cooler northern United States.
However, this hasn`t been the case. There is another longer range
parameter Meteorologist look at which is called PDO or Pacific
Decadal Oscillation. Since the fall of 2014, this parameter has
been positive, which means warmer waters flowing northward from
the tropics. This is typical for an El Nino pattern and has been
mostly correct for our weather over the past two winters. Only in
the past 3 months has the PDO shifted cooler or negative, which is
a sign of cooler La Nina waters flowing northward toward the Gulf
of Alaska. Usually this shift is associated with an La Nina
pattern which is currently developing. However, in an La Nina
pattern the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest is usually cooler. This
hasn`t happened and was wondering what will develop in the next
month of two. There is an article on the PDO/La Nina comparison
which discusses this issue. (www.agweb.com/blog/the- weather-
whisperer /duel-in-the- pacific). What was stated is if the PDO is
more in control, we could see the change in the next month to a
more cooler pattern. La Nina basically correlates to this fact of
a cooler pattern, but it just hasn`t developed yet.

The GFS currently shows the cold moving in by around the 23rd. I am just wondering if this will be the big flip, or just another brief deviation from the warmth like what was seen in late October. Regardless, I would not be surprised one bit if there is huge lake-effect snow in the typical lake-effect areas some time during the last 8 days of the month.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

1 hour ago, GTAWX1993 said:

The GFS currently shows the cold moving in by around the 23rd. I am just wondering if this will be the big flip, or just another brief deviation from the warmth like what was seen in late October. Regardless, I would not be surprised one bit if there is huge lake-effect snow in the typical lake-effect areas some time during the last 8 days of the month.

Agreed, the 06Z GFS even shows some LES on it after the big storm out west moves through as rain and has cold air behind it.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

This would be one dramatic shift.

[slimjim101]

 

Today is yet another great warm, sunny November day. And we are now at +8.9 for the moth and even with the cool down for Friday and Saturday we look to be back up to near or above average for next week once again.  It looks like there is a very good chance that Grand Rapids will record it’s first official 32 night on Friday/Saturday depending if it is reached before or after midnight will depend of if we will have a tie for second latest first 32 or move into second place. First place is November 14, 1918 that looks to be a safe record. The current second place is November 11th 1897.  So this November is in some long time standings as for the first official 32 reading.  I know many locations have had lows of 32 and colder in the GRR area (I have gotten down to 30) but they are NOT official and will not go into the record books.

As for lake effect snow later on this month.  That would not surprise me at all as most Novembers we get some lake snows. It would be more unusual not to. 

[nwohweather]

Kind of disappointed in the lack of severe so far. I was hoping that our rocking August was a sign of an active fall coming

[snowlover2]

3 hours ago, GTAWX1993 said:

The GFS currently shows the cold moving in by around the 23rd. I am just wondering if this will be the big flip, or just another brief deviation from the warmth like what was seen in late October. Regardless, I would not be surprised one bit if there is huge lake-effect snow in the typical lake-effect areas some time during the last 8 days of the month.

Thinking its the expected flip. 0z GFS caught back onto it and 6z GFS got colder. Waiting on if the 12z keeps it going.

[LoveSN+]

12Z still shows some cold, but certainly nothing compared to the 6Z. As always, this is D10+ and as we know, is certainly prone to error. 

[GTAWX1993]

4 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

Thinking its the expected flip. 0z GFS caught back onto it and 6z GFS got colder. Waiting on if the 12z keeps it going.

If it does flip, it will be exactly like 2005. Like I mentioned before, the mid June-November timeframe this year has been extremely similar to 2005 here in the Great Lakes region, at least where I am. It almost seems like I am reliving it again, only that I now work and am not in school.

 

2005-06 has also been a commonly used winter analog for quite some time, as it was also a cool ENSO Neutral-weak La Nina year, plus with similar SSTs around the world, except I doubt that we will get a blowtorch January like we did that year.

[Maxim]

highly doubt we see a "flip" this month given the +PDO and that perennial aleutian low. don't have much of a cold air source right now either. 

 

could see a top 5 warmest November for many cities in this subforum.

[GTAWX1993]

6 hours ago, slimjim101 said:

 

Today is yet another great warm, sunny November day. And we are now at +8.9 for the moth and even with the cool down for Friday and Saturday we look to be back up to near or above average for next week once again.  It looks like there is a very good chance that Grand Rapids will record it’s first official 32 night on Friday/Saturday depending if it is reached before or after midnight will depend of if we will have a tie for second latest first 32 or move into second place. First place is November 14, 1918 that looks to be a safe record. The current second place is November 11th 1897.  So this November is in some long time standings as for the first official 32 reading.  I know many locations have had lows of 32 and colder in the GRR area (I have gotten down to 30) but they are NOT official and will not go into the record books.

As for lake effect snow later on this month.  That would not surprise me at all as most Novembers we get some lake snows. It would be more unusual not to. 

Back-to-back warmest November's on record for 2016 and 2015 could be likely in parts of the GL as well. Also, back-to-back warmest falls.

[GTAWX1993]

18 minutes ago, Maxim said:

highly doubt we see a "flip" this month given the +PDO and that perennial aleutian low. don't have much of a cold air source right now either. 

 

could see a top 5 warmest November for many cities in this subforum.

I keep getting this gut feeling that whatever cold we get in late November, may just be a brief deviation from the overall warm pattern. I at this point do not see us getting colder than normal for sustained periods until December at the earliest. I do not think we are heading towards a 2011-12 or even 2015-16 either though.

[GTAWX1993]

6 hours ago, slimjim101 said:

 

Today is yet another great warm, sunny November day. And we are now at +8.9 for the moth and even with the cool down for Friday and Saturday we look to be back up to near or above average for next week once again.  It looks like there is a very good chance that Grand Rapids will record it’s first official 32 night on Friday/Saturday depending if it is reached before or after midnight will depend of if we will have a tie for second latest first 32 or move into second place. First place is November 14, 1918 that looks to be a safe record. The current second place is November 11th 1897.  So this November is in some long time standings as for the first official 32 reading.  I know many locations have had lows of 32 and colder in the GRR area (I have gotten down to 30) but they are NOT official and will not go into the record books.

As for lake effect snow later on this month.  That would not surprise me at all as most Novembers we get some lake snows. It would be more unusual not to. 

Around 60F here with wall to wall sun. The warmest November 10th since 2002 here as well (Except November 10th that year was stormy!)

[cyclone77]

18 years ago today.  Massive Midwest superstorm.  I could watch this video loop for hours.  What an amazing storm system.

 

 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

And the 0Z GFS has the LES back, first taste of model madness.

[IWXwx]

FWA will tie the record today for the longest days in a row above freezing, 211 (1938), as it hasn't been or below 32° since April 14th. It won't be broken though as the expected low is 28 for the airport overnight.

Talk about a long growing season...

[Younar]

3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

FWA will tie the record today for the longest days in a row above freezing, 211 (1938), as it hasn't been or below 32° since April 14th. It won't be broken though as the expected low is 28 for the airport overnight.

Talk about a long growing season...

We are now at 213 days at MSP... tonight could do it as the point forecast for the airport is calling for 32. If we don't get it tonight, tack at least another week on to the tally. Previous record was 207 days. Average first freeze is mid October. This is getting ridiculous... no wait, it already is and has been for awhile.

 

[ConfusedKitten]

50 minutes ago, Younar said:

We are now at 213 days at MSP... tonight could do it as the point forecast for the airport is calling for 32. If we don't get it tonight, tack at least another week on to the tally. Previous record was 207 days. Average first freeze is mid October. This is getting ridiculous... no wait, it already is and has been for awhile.

 

Crazy that parts of Northern Alabama had frost this morning but Minneapolis still hasn't.

https://mobile.twitter.com/spann/status/797068421817102336