HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 18Z GFS keeps everything almost all snow next Thursday north of the 80/90 corridor, something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 5 hours ago, Jim Marusak said: most of the 12z runs are in, and I don't know about anyone else, but I'm starting to see a general pattern here on where the possibility of heavy snow (6+"/15+ cms snow) is increasing rapidly for the end of the week and this weekend. if I were to outline an area across the northern plains and the western Great Lakes that would be candidates for Winter Storm Watches, I'd go with roughly inside the area bounded by the following observing stations as a starting point: Fargo ND (KFAR) > Aberdeen SD (KABR) > Watertown SD (KATY) > Sioux Falls SD (KFSD) > Redwood Falls MN (KRWF) > St Cloud MN (KSTC) > Duluth MN (KDLH) > Thunder Bay ON (CYQT) > Chapleau ON (CYLD) > Kapuskasing ON (CYYU) > Sioux Lookout ON (CYXL) > International Falls MN/Fort Frances ON (KINL). I know that area will probably change, and there's a lot that can change thermo-wise and otherwise the next couple of days. But as a rough starting point, that's what it looks like to me that could be used as a base area in which to adjust around. Agree? disagree? got adjustments to that you'd like to make? Sounds about right to me. Still looks like the Willmar to Grand Rapids corridor gets the most. MSP still in line for a few inches of wet snow. Looks like timing is the biggest question at this point, but I'm sure that will be sorted out in the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 18Z GFS keeps everything almost all snow next Thursday north of the 80/90 corridor, something to keep an eye on.It'll go north and west, it always does this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 We had a pretty nice afternoon after a chilly, very foggy morning. We are expected to reach the low 70s Thursday and wake up to at least 50s Friday morning, if not low 60s. I'm looking forward to the first cold weekend of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 11 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: The ECMWF had a full blown cane developing in the southern caribbean after Thanksgiving day 8-10.....................right bro, right. There is an invest there and it has a 80% chance of developing by day 5. Considering the location and time of year, it isn't completely unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 We were up in Bay City area yesterday and today and boy was the weather just great! lots of sun and warm temperatures. The highs were in the mid to upper 50's both days we were there. The foretasted highs for Thursday and Friday are in upper 60's well the record high here in Grand Rapids for both days is 70 set in 1958 for both dates. For Thursday there was also a 70 reading in 1953 and there were highs of 69 on the 17th in 1954 and there were readings of 69 on the 18th in 1979 and 1953. In 1958 November ended on the cold and snowy side and the rest of the winter of 1958/59 was very cold and snowy in West Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Note re snowfall contest ... There was a slight error in the table of 1986-2015 average values in post #1 of the contest thread. Apparently I posted last year's contest averages. These were generally about 10 per cent lower than the long-term averages. As a result, the contest deadline has been extended from next hour (06z) to same time on Friday night (19:06z). If you entered and based any forecasts on the averages, you have some time to edit your forecasts. This also opens up a chance for one or two more entries, contest will now close on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 0Z Euro looks... Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 It is very foggy here this morning with temperatures in the upper 30’s The next 3 days look to be much warmer than average after Friday we look to settle into the coldest we have seen here in West Michigan since early April. Also, we have a good chance of seeing some snow this weekend as well and that also would be the first snow many areas have seen also since early April. This is around the time we generally receive our first one inch of snow so this is within the expected time frame for snow. (average first date for one inch at GRR is around November 19th) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 A few inches of snow and 50 mph gusts along the high ridge here in N Marquette County Saturday should make for a fun weather day. Going to have to go down to the lakeshore in Big Bay and check out the waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Some trees around here still have a decent amount of leaves. That should largely be taken care of in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Tomorrow may approach the record at ORD. Record high is 74. MOS and the raw output looks out to lunch, showing mid to upper 60s. Given 925 mb temps near 18C, fairly strong southerly low level flow and what should be ample sunshine, I see no reason not to expect temps over 70. LOT is going with 72, which seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Agree with Hoosier. Think low 70's close to a lock. Question becomes how much above that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 35 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Agree with Hoosier. Think low 70's close to a lock. Question becomes how much above that Given the temps just off the deck, I'd put the maximum potential in the 75-77 range. Not predicting that will happen but within the realm of possibility. The days are pretty short this time of year, which doesn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Point for here tomorrow is 75. The record at MLI is 74, so it looks like a good chance at a new record. Gonna be pretty windy in the afternoon, with south winds gusting up to 30mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 We are at an all-time low for snow cover in the US for November. Canada doesn't look much better. That should change drastically by the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 I'm not all that optimistic about snowfall this Winter here. Pattern this Fall so far has been warm, progressive, lots of dry fronts, and as pointed out above snow cover is greatly lacking in North America. If I go out on a limb now I'd say at or slightly below normal Winter temps and a better than even chance of below normal snowfall ~20-25". Now, we could certainly see a good pattern lock in, but even this shot of early Wintery weather this weekend won't last beyond two days then it's back to at/above normal by Tuesday. What has my interest piqued is next Wednesday/Thursday and whether we get a trof to lock in over the Central US or is it right back to a progressive pattern? I really don't want a repeat of 2011-2012 as that was a horrible Winter. We had two weeks of legit Winter but never got really cold and snow depth hit 4-5" for about one week I think. Most of our snow that Winter was gone within two days when we did get any. There were businesses that didn't make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Lowest snowfall across Canada in history. I think Canadian snowcover is much more important in good winters across the Great Lakes than Siberian snow cover which is at a very high level this year. With Neutral Enso conditions this year will be a great analog going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Rather big shift SE with the heavy snow band in MN on the 0z 12k and 4k NAM. Central MN gonna get whacked hard. I'm just hoping for flakes but let's see if the globals follow suit with the shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Here is what Chitown Storm is referring to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, Chitown Storm said: Rather big shift SE with the heavy snow band in MN on the 0z 12k and 4K NAM. Central MN gonna get whacked hard. I'm just hoping for the flakes but let's see if the globals follow suit with the shift. Noticed this as well. Sometimes the NAM does catch shifts like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 33 minutes ago, Chitown Storm said: Rather big shift SE with the heavy snow band in MN on the 0z 12k and 4K NAM. Central MN gonna get whacked hard. I'm just hoping for the flakes but let's see if the globals follow suit with the shift. Looks like no meaningful adjustments on the GFS (for us at least). Verbatim we'll get some flakes but nothing more than a car topper by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 HRRR for tomorrow. This looks more realistic than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: HRRR for tomorrow. This looks more realistic than other models. That's gonna feel awesome. Stark contrast to what we'll be seeing 30-36hrs later when flakes could be flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Having yet another clear day here in West Michigan. This must be one of the sunniest November’s that we have had. So far GRR has reported 8 clear days 6 partly cloudy days and only 2 cloudy days today should add to the clear days total. Remember November, December and January are our cloudiest months on average we only have around 26% of possible sunshine in November. The record for the most sunshine is 56% in 1939 and the record lowest in 5% in 1992. This year should be closer (if not over) 1939. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 11 hours ago, Younar said: Looks like no meaningful adjustments on the GFS (for us at least). Verbatim we'll get some flakes but nothing more than a car topper by the looks of it. Yeah this won't be much for us but the NAM and the Euro keep the low thru extreme SE MN, allowing the cold air arrive before most of the precip moves to the east. There could be a nice period of heavy snow in the metro. Last week I was hoping to just see flakes before December. Now we should see some tomorrow and next week looks like there is some potential as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 10 hours ago, cyclone77 said: That's gonna feel awesome. Stark contrast to what we'll be seeing 30-36hrs later when flakes could be flying. Already 72 at MLI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimjim101 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 I am now up to 67° at my house. I am getting ready to go for my walk and then put the outside Christmas decorations up. It look to be a great day to do that. While I would not call this summer like today it sure is late September early October like (or late April early May) BTW the record high for this date is 70 set in 1958 the current reading at GRR is now 66° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 76 in St Louis and 74 in Moline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 The general trend in the models today is an eastward shift in the heavy snow axis. Another interesting aspect is the slowing of the low, allowing more of the precip to fall in the cold sector. The 18z 4k NAM almost goes sub 990 and hangs the low back in SE MN. Heavy snow into W IA and S MN. Not saying the Twin Cities is going to get hit hard, but it's getting interesting. They may need to pull those watches/warnings a bit to the east if the trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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