Jim Marusak Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 6 minutes ago, Chitown Storm said: The GFS has been sinking the heavy snow further south over the last several runs since 0z. Not nearly to the extent the GEM is, but there is a trend. Should be a fun few days of model watching. But you're right, the 12z GEM is pure candy at this point. if I'm seeing the operational Euro come in correctly on Pivotal, it looks a lot faster than either the GFS or the GGEM by at least a gear or two, and just a shade south of the current GFS. definitely going to be a fun few days. and one of these days I have to subscribe to someplace like eurowx.com or something like that to get higher resolution Euro maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Just now, Jim Marusak said: if I'm seeing the operational Euro come in correctly on Pivotal, it looks a lot faster than either the GFS or the GGEM by at least a gear or two, and just a shade south of the current GFS. definitely going to be a fun few days. and one of these days I have to subscribe to someplace like eurowx.com or something like that to get higher resolution Euro maps. Yeah the Euro has been consistently faster than the GFS for the past few days, and the new 12z may be the quickest yet. It's a little weaker with the storm (988mb vs <985 ) than previous runs, but man it still delivers the goods. Absolutely smokes the Willmar/Brainerd/Grand Rapids corridor Friday. Even the MSP area gets a few inches on the back side behind the departing low. This is gonna be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Glad to see something to watch, and as always, I enjoy reading your guys take on model trends. Based off the current track, I wouldn't be surprised to see 6-8" of lake enhancement/effect after the low passes. 42 and fog this afternoon, but still above normal. Won't be long now until the snow is here. Currently running a foot below the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Wow, the Euro shows 70-75kts at 900mb immediately behind the departing low over eastern MN from MSP up to Mcgregor at 18z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Just a reminder that there's a snowfall contest thread open, entries must be in by end of Tuesday 15th or 06z Wed 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 The idea of snow has everyone in maximum weenie mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 4 hours ago, cyclone77 said: GFS continues to bring the pain to the northern MW and Plains. Dumps almost 2 feet of wind driven snow over northwest MN by Saturday. 45-55mph wind gusts along the heavy snow swath as well. Very impressive baroclinic zone over MN Friday. MSP area could be in the 60s, while a few hundred miles north/west will be in a full-on blizzard. Glanced at the GEM too for the heck of it, and got a nice laugh. It completely blanks the areas the Euro and GFS have consistently dumped heavy snow on, and instead dumps the heavy snow from Iowa into Wisconsin. Canadian really is not a good model anymore. It struggles. I would take it's solution that as it gives me snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 The GFS' southern march seems to have halted with today's 18z run. Maybe we can score a slushy dusting on the backend here in the twin cities. The ground is a furnace with all the warmth this fall so temps would have to crash real quickly for any meaningful accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 1 hour ago, Younar said: The GFS' southern march seems to have halted with today's 18z run. Maybe we can score a slushy dusting on the backend here in the twin cities. The ground is a furnace with all the warmth this fall so temps would have to crash real quickly for any meaningful accumulation. You're right that the 18z stalled. But, the 12z Euro was a very nice step in the right direction. The low was centered almost right over the metro compared to the 12z run yesterday that had the low near the SD/ND/MN border. As Cyclone mentioned, the TC still got a few inches on the backend. The GFS is the farthest NW at the point. Still too early to say which model has the best handle on things. Expect more flip flops thru Wed. At least we have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 23 minutes ago, Chitown Storm said: You're right that the 18z stalled. But, the 12z Euro was a very nice step in the right direction. The low was centered almost right over the metro compared to the 12z run yesterday that had the low near the SD/ND/MN border. As Cyclone mentioned, the TC still got a few inches on the backend. The GFS is the farthest NW at the point. Still too early to say which model has the best handle on things. Expect more flip flops thru Wed. At least we have something to track. Yeah I noticed that about the euro after I posted. Also the EPS is about 60 miles even further south east than the op... down near red wing. Which also represents a big jump east from the previous EPS run so the op has some support. The op is pretty much right over my head at the same point in time. I'll take whatever we can get and be happy with it (even if just our first freeze of the season at MSP lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Huge ring around the moon tonight here, never seen one that big before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 0Z GFS is further north but gets the synoptic snows further south. And the GEM shifted back west, as probably expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Euro another tick weaker with the system. Now only deepens it briefly to 989mb before quickly filling, and hence a bit further southeast as well. Still gives the MSP area a few inches of wet snow on the back side before the system rapidly departs. Despite a slightly further southeast track compared to the 12z the main snow swath remains about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Euro is too fast imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 13 minutes ago, Maxim said: Euro is too fast imo. Any reason you think this or just stabbing into the dark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Finally! Saturday...Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after noon. Widespread blowing snow after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Breezy. Saturday Night...Snow likely. Areas of blowing snow. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Blustery. Sunday...Snow likely. Patchy blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Blustery. Sunday Night...A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 3 hours ago, Stebo said: Any reason you think this or just stabbing into the dark? no... for one, it's an outlier. and two, this system goes negative tilt well before it even reaches our subforum, as well as a high amplitude upper level pattern to go along with it, which more times than not would favor a slower solution than what the euro is depicting. there's no reason to buy into the faster euro solutions just yet, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 could see some decent wrap-around snow showers as the system departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTAWX1993 Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 It looks like the warm pattern may break down by the 20th, and Friday could approach record highs in some locations. My area's warmest November 18th is around 68F back in 1958, and we could reach the mid 60s on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 GFS has sped up the system over the past few runs. Now has the low deep into Iowa at 12z Fri, vs out in Nebraska in previous runs. Point has some flakes in it for the first time for us Fri night/Sat morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Huge ring around the moon tonight here, never seen one that big before.Had one around the sun here yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 From a few days ago...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 151 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2016 /251 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2016/ ..ROCKFORD SETS RECORD FOR LATEST FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ON FRIDAY EVENING NOVEMBER 11, THE OFFICIAL TEMPERATURE AT ROCKFORD HAD DROPPED TO 32 DEGREES. THIS WAS THE FIRST FREEZING TEMPERATURE OF THE AUTUMN SEASON AND IS THE LATEST FIRST FREEZE ON RECORD (DATING BACK TO 1905). IT BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF NOVEMBER 4, 1973 BY AN ENTIRE WEEK. THE NORMAL FIRST FREEZE FOR ROCKFORD IS OCTOBER 8. THE LENGTH OF TIME BETWEEN THE LAST SPRING FREEZE AND THE FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE, SOMETIMES REFERRED TO AS THE GROWING SEASON, WAS TECHNICALLY NOT A RECORD IN 2016 FOR ROCKFORD. THIS WAS BECAUSE THE LAST SPRING FREEZE ON MAY 15 WAS LATE COMPARED TO THE NORMAL OF APRIL 28. HOWEVER, THE LOW ON MAY 15 WAS ONLY 31 DEGREES AND IT WAS THE ONLY SUBFREEZING LOW AFTER APRIL 12 AND LIKELY DID NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON MOST AGRICULTURE. HAD APRIL 12 BEEN THE FINAL FREEZE, THE 213 DAYS BETWEEN LAST AND FIRST FREEZE WOULD HAVE BEEN A RECORD TOPPING THE 203 DAYS IN 1973. THIS YEAR'S GROWING SEASON LENGTH FOR ROCKFORD WILL OFFICIALLY GO DOWN AS 179 DAYS. THE NORMAL IS 162 DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Check out that block on today's day 11-15 GFS. Interesting, very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 7 hours ago, Maxim said: no... for one, it's an outlier. and two, this system goes negative tilt well before it even reaches our subforum, as well as a high amplitude upper level pattern to go along with it, which more times than not would favor a slower solution than what the euro is depicting. there's no reason to buy into the faster euro solutions just yet, but we'll see. That is much better, since you have a low amount of posts I just wanted to get a read on your posting, One liners with no information don't really do much for the threads, when you expand on the posts like this it is much better. I will say be careful with the Euro, it has been known to be too fast lately since the last update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Had one around the sun here yesterday. Great shot, I couldn't get a good one with my phone last night, the ring was so huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 most of the 12z runs are in, and I don't know about anyone else, but I'm starting to see a general pattern here on where the possibility of heavy snow (6+"/15+ cms snow) is increasing rapidly for the end of the week and this weekend. if I were to outline an area across the northern plains and the western Great Lakes that would be candidates for Winter Storm Watches, I'd go with roughly inside the area bounded by the following observing stations as a starting point: Fargo ND (KFAR) > Aberdeen SD (KABR) > Watertown SD (KATY) > Sioux Falls SD (KFSD) > Redwood Falls MN (KRWF) > St Cloud MN (KSTC) > Duluth MN (KDLH) > Thunder Bay ON (CYQT) > Chapleau ON (CYLD) > Kapuskasing ON (CYYU) > Sioux Lookout ON (CYXL) > International Falls MN/Fort Frances ON (KINL). I know that area will probably change, and there's a lot that can change thermo-wise and otherwise the next couple of days. But as a rough starting point, that's what it looks like to me that could be used as a base area in which to adjust around. Agree? disagree? got adjustments to that you'd like to make? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 ORD had 3+ hours of 0M vis this morning with the fog...KORD 151551Z 33005KT 0SM R10L/1600V2400FT FG OVC002 08/08 A2991 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP133 T00780078KORD 151451Z 35004KT 0SM R10L/0800V1200FT FG VV002 07/07 A2990 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP128 T00720072 50009KORD 151351Z 34005KT 0SM R10L/0700V0800FT FG VV002 07/06 A2991 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/16 SLP131 T00670061KORD 151308Z 33004KT 0SM R10L/1200V2200FT FG VV002 06/06 A2989 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 T00610056 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: ORD had 3+ hours of 0M vis this morning with the fog... KORD 151551Z 33005KT 0SM R10L/1600V2400FT FG OVC002 08/08 A2991 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP133 T00780078 KORD 151451Z 35004KT 0SM R10L/0800V1200FT FG VV002 07/07 A2990 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP128 T00720072 50009 KORD 151351Z 34005KT 0SM R10L/0700V0800FT FG VV002 07/06 A2991 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/16 SLP131 T00670061 KORD 151308Z 33004KT 0SM R10L/1200V2200FT FG VV002 06/06 A2989 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 T00610056 Tower in the fog, the surface vis was 1/16th at worst. Still pretty incredible to be at 0SM with the tower vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Last reminder for snowfall contest, deadline is end of today in CST. If you come across this notice after today and want to enter for the fun of it, I will score late entries made in second half of November (not any made after Nov 30) but your contest rank cannot be higher than sixth if you enter late. We have a reasonable number of entries so far and quite a few of them look optimistic for snowfall in the region. I will post a summary of the forecasts (just averages, not individual numbers) on this thread tomorrow or possibly Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 I seen ground temps and the overall mild pattern mentioned In earlier posts and if the snow could accumulate given the mild weather, let's not forget winter storm atlas that occurred October 3rd-5th 2013, dropping 12-50" of heavy heavy wet snow. Really looking back, that early early October blizzard, the November tornado outbreak, and the waves of arctic air that starting occurring in early December really make me reflect on just how truly historic 2013-2014 was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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