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November 2016 General Discussion


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Looks like the umpteenth round of above-normal temps that began Halloween weekend will continue at least into the first day or so of November, at least here in Central Illinois. 

FWIW Weather Channel's 10-day forecast currently has 75 predicted for Tuesday (Nov. 1): https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/62704:4:US

 

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With a forecasted high in the upper 60’s the start of November could be the warmest here in GR since 2000. And as we have not had a reading of 32° yet at GRR this will be the latest that Grand Rapids had not reached freezing since 1940 (November 6)  I know there is a lot of people looking for a big "flip" in mid to late November and that very will may happen but then again it may not,  If indeed there is a big flip to much colder conditions then there is a good chance of a good amount of lake effect but there also more than just lake temperatures for good lake effect to happen. Stay tuned!

 

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FWA tied their record high at 78° ('91. '46, '22) yesterday per an IWX PNS. However, threaded extremes show a 79° (1897, the first year for record keeping at Fort Wayne).

November will begin with another high temp record (79° - 1950) being threatened. The 83° (1910) on Wednesday looks safe. This is the latest 80°+ record at FWA.

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If it even happens, I think we wait until week 3 for the ridge to retrograde west and bring cooler temps to the eastern half of the country. 

Week 1: record warmth for many

Week 2: well above normal in plains, trending closer to normal in east..still warm

Week 3: slightly below possible, focusing in the east. may stay above normal in the plains

In my opinion. 

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17 hours ago, Jonger said:

Hoping to get rid of the non stop ridge we have seen for several months now. The other side of the planet has stolen out cold for weeks now. October isn't a big deal, but good stuff can happen  here in 2 weeks or so with a trough.

And he says this is perhaps lagging a bit. Panel 4 looking nice:

 

 

20161031 JB on CFS 45d snow.PNG

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Ryan Maue tweeted out that models are latching onto the idea of a very cold second half of November, coincides well with the advertised pattern change mid month. 

6-10 as well as 8-14 day temp and precip maps show well above normal temps and much below average precipitation form much of the sub Certainly do not want to start a drought on the heel of winter. 

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This is a wrap up for GRR for the month of October.

 With October 2016 now in the record books it’s time to look and see how it was here in Grand Rapids. For the month, the mean temperature was 54.7° (+3.7°) Making it the warmest October since 2008.  The warmest high was 79° on the 5th and the coldest low was 33° on the 32th making this October the first time since 1971 that GRR did not officially have a 32° reading in October and we have a good this year being the latest year without a 32 reading since 1940 (November 6th) in fact the all-time record of November 14th 1918 is in play.  There was 6.15” of precipitation (+2.89”) and no snow was reported at GRR.  On a side note there are still a lot of leaves on the trees and the color is still good. This is by far the latest I can remember this many leaves still on the trees this late in the year.  I have a good reference point as we just had Halloween and my birthday is November 7th

 

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I think around the 20th is reasonable to target for getting some below normal temps in. That's about how long it'll take to flip from this very warm pattern. The month should easily average warmer than normal for almost the entire sub unless the last 10 days are record cold...which I somehow doubt. 

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51 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I think around the 20th is reasonable to target for getting some below normal temps in. That's about how long it'll take to flip from this very warm pattern. The month should easily average warmer than normal for almost the entire sub unless the last 10 days are record cold...which I somehow doubt. 

I'd probably go a week later but there will be a flip late month, I am not buying the mid month flip because these things are always delayed a week or so, that said the flip is coming by December.

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4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

lol, weenies talking snow when it's going to be in the 60s all month

1/3rd of October was in the 40's and 50's here. I'm skeptical we are going up from this point.

You're going to be so miserable running between trains/subways in a couple months. Gonna be nonstop complaints until May.

You should look into moving here.

subdivision-in-clermont-fl.jpg

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

I'd probably go a week later but there will be a flip late month, I am not buying the mid month flip because these things are always delayed a week or so, that said the flip is coming by December.

I think either way it's better by December for sure. Some of the better analogs had warm falls and flipped by or during December, and the ensembles are hinting at an improving pattern consistently later in the runs. Patience will probably be key over the next few weeks. 

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56 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I think either way it's better by December for sure. Some of the better analogs had warm falls and flipped by or during December, and the ensembles are hinting at an improving pattern consistently later in the runs. Patience will probably be key over the next few weeks. 

Honestly, I'd rather have good patterns later on anyways, having a good pattern in November usually doesn't yield for the region outside MN WI and the UP.

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Just now, Stebo said:

Honestly, I'd rather have good patterns later on anyways, having a good pattern in November usually doesn't yield for the region outside MN WI and the UP.

I prefer a front loaded winter for sure. Annoying when it starts late and drags on.

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The high at the airport so far of 73° will make this the warmest November 1st since 1990 when it reached 74.  While the record high for today here in Grand Rapids is very warm 81 set in 1950 (that is the all time record high for the month) but todays high (so far) of 73 will be good for 4th place behind the 81 in 1950, 76 in 1944 and that 74 set in 1990.  But note just last November GRR had 4 days in a row of 73, 76, 75, 72 and then a day of 67° that probably was the longest streak of such warm days in November.

On a side note the last white Christmas here in Grand Rapids was in 2013 While two years dose not seem like a long time for here that is.

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2 hours ago, Jonger said:

1/3rd of October was in the 40's and 50's here. I'm skeptical we are going up from this point.

You're going to be so miserable running between trains/subways in a couple months. Gonna be nonstop complaints until May.

You should look into moving here.

subdivision-in-clermont-fl.jpg

:lol: If things play out, in a couple months that'll look good to a lot on here. Maybe even myself :lol:

 

20161101 BAMwx on analog yrs.PNG

20161101 BAMwx on cold Dec via tele's.PNG

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29 minutes ago, ConfusedKitten said:

Wow it's only 67 up here in London, maybe I should take a brief vacation down to Southeast Michigan AKA Florida. Seriously though it's nice to open my windows for once.

Warm front pretty much stalled near the border. High of 68 here today was enjoyable.

Should be nice and warm for World Series game six tonight! Currently 77 in Cleveland. 

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