CIK62 Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: i checked the calendar it is november 10 What does the date have to do with whether or not it is above normal? I am not saying we should be having snow yet. Fact is we are in the 21st. consecutive AN month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, CIK62 said: What does the date have to do with whether or not it is above normal? I am not saying we should be having snow yet. Fact is we are in the 21st. consecutive AN month. He was responding to my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 10, 2016 Author Share Posted November 10, 2016 56 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Its. November. 10th. This times 10000000000000. Sheesh people are acting like winter is half way through already when it hasn't even started yet. Yeah the proposed pattern change hasn't occurred but it's still early. I'll worry if it hasn't changed in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 On 11/8/2016 at 4:44 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I hear you.. but man have things taken an ugly turn for any cooling this month . Looks like Tgiving dinners are moving outside this year as families slap on sunscreen instead of sweaters Not everyone is surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 Check out those CFS Weeklies. But be sure to be wearing your sunglasses-----the off the scale bright purples might burn your retina. They just lay waste to the next 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: Check out those CFS Weeklies. But be sure to be wearing your sunglasses-----the off the scale bright purples might burn your retina. They just lay waste to the next 30 days. It's accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 16 hours ago, snowman19 said: Until there is a complete and total flip of the pattern in this graphic, we are not getting cold. Source regions are just getting torched. This looks to continue for at least the next 10 days at minimum It really isn't showing any signs of letting up just yet. The theme remains the same with record warmth in the Arctic and cold and snow in Eurasia. The PAC JET will continue until further notice keeping the mild Pacific air in place over North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 11, 2016 Author Share Posted November 11, 2016 Yep looks like transient cold shots until the Pac jet finally lets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 Just an amazing early winter pattern for Eurasia under this regime. http://www.thelocal.se/20161110/stockholm-just-set-a-new-snow-record Stockholm had its snowiest November day in 111 years Published: 10 Nov 2016 06:51 GMT+01:00 Stockholm was covered by at least 30 centimetres of snow early on Thursday morning, more than on any other November day since records began in 1905, according to national weather agency SMHI. The previous November record was in 1985 and 2004 when the snow was 29 centimetres thick (however, that does not even come close to the all-time record for Stockholm: 76 centimetres in March 1909). “In the morning around 21 centimetres had fallen. During the day another 15 to 20 centimetres fell,” SMHI meteorologist Elisabeth Saarnak told Aftonbladet on Wednesday. On Thursday morning at 7am the snow was 39 centimetres thick at SMHI's weather station in Stockholm. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYnMPTJUD-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It really isn't showing any signs of letting up just yet. The theme remains the same with record warmth in the Arctic and cold and snow in Eurasia. The PAC JET will continue until further notice keeping the mild Pacific air in place over North America. I agree Chris, there is just not high there. I mean nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 11, 2016 Author Share Posted November 11, 2016 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's interesting that most of the weekly guidance like Euro and JMA are showing a potentially significant -AO drop in early December. But they maintain the PAC Jet and keep a trough out West or near the West Coast. We saw a pattern like this in December 2012 where the -AO ridge built down a little too far into SE Canada for cold here. I am not sure how this will play out yet. Is it leftover niño forcing that is causing the entrapment of the cold in Eurasia? Like it's forcing lower heights in the bering sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 Just now, bluewave said: It's interesting that most of the weekly guidance like Euro and JMA are showing a potentially significant -AO drop in early December. But they maintain the PAC Jet and keep a trough out West or near the West Coast. We saw a pattern like this in December 2012 where the -AO ridge build down a little too far into SE Canada for cold here. I am not sure how this will play out yet. Meh, fast PAC jet is just lights out . It becomes the bully. We would need some real anomalous help on the Atlantic side just to be in the game , let alone run it . I walked away from the November flip a few days ago . Even with the flip I thought it wouldn't erase the front , now I am looking forward to tranquil fall temps . I'm not punting winter at all . Just the calls for an early start were premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 1 minute ago, PB GFI said: Meh, fast PAC jet is just lights out . It becomes the bully. We would need some real anomalous help on the Atlantic side just to be in the game , let alone run it . I walked away from the November flip a few days ago . Even with the flip I thought it wouldn't erase the front , now I am looking forward to tranquil fall temps . I'm not punting winter at all . Just the calls for an early start were premature. If the PAC jet firehose continues into the winter I think we are toast. I would like to see the PAC jet start to ease up within the next few weeks, hopefully that will happen. Certainly to early be be punting winter that is for sure but if we don't see the PAC easing up in the next few weeks I think we might be in trouble for December at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 On 10/27/2016 at 10:00 AM, PB GFI said: Some of the guidance and maybe a few hints which are pointing to the trough settling in the east week 3 and 4 . JMA CFS Chris , I posted this on Oct 27 . I used a lot more than just the JMA . They all went to the trough in the east week 3 and 4 which is the period we are in now. All of the guidance missed the fast flow , so yes the new JMA retrogrates the ridge NW again, I am not sure I buy it yet after what the above guidance showed which was my bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 It's amazing how mild and transient this cold shot turned into. NYC is not even going to go below 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 11, 2016 Author Share Posted November 11, 2016 18 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It's amazing how mild and transient this cold shot turned into. NYC is not even going to go below 32 Forecasted low of 32 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 8 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Forecasted low of 32 here You should get close to 32 but the wait will be longer for NYC proper etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 11, 2016 Author Share Posted November 11, 2016 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: You should get close to 32 but the wait will be longer for NYC proper etc Yeah KNYC should get down to 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 10 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Yeah KNYC should get down to 35. Yeah, it's still on the early side for a first freeze in NYC. The average NYC first freeze date for 2010's climo has been between November 6th and December 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 11, 2016 Author Share Posted November 11, 2016 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it's still on the early side for a first freeze in NYC. The average NYC first freeze date for 2010's climo has been between November 6th and December 10th. I think it would take until December for NYC to get it's first freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 2 hours ago, PB GFI said: Meh, fast PAC jet is just lights out . It becomes the bully. We would need some real anomalous help on the Atlantic side just to be in the game , let alone run it . I walked away from the November flip a few days ago . Even with the flip I thought it wouldn't erase the front , now I am looking forward to tranquil fall temps . I'm not punting winter at all . Just the calls for an early start were premature. Great post. I'm seeing a lot of "-AO coming, east is going to get very cold". No we're not. Not with a roaring Pacific jet. Like you said, we can stay above normal to normal even with a strong -AO if the Pacific jetstream doesn't let up and keeps flooding Canada with Pacific maritime air. The arctic air just wants to stay bottled up in Eurasia so far. Bluewave made a good point, 2012 is a very good example of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 46 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I think it would take until December for NYC to get it's first freeze We'll see...Here are the first freeze dates for NYC since 2010: 11/24/15 11/18/14 11/12/13 11/6/12 12/10/11 12/4/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 Hitting 60 again today, highs forecast to remain 55-60 over the next week...still waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: It's amazing how mild and transient this cold shot turned into. NYC is not even going to go below 32 I never saw an actual forecast that had 32 or lower in NYC. The Sat high temps are whats really gone milder and the cold shot is done after that. Its turning out to be just a slightly below norm day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 On 11/8/2016 at 6:18 PM, PB GFI said: Good call. I did post that the back end of November would not negate the front part its warmth . Now I am not sure there is even a back end. The LR guidance is fast into the WC So wheels up and I will just circle . I see no change in pattern for at least a month if not longer, JB looks to go down in flames with his December forecast. Sometimes patterns just lock in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 15 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I see no change in pattern for at least a month if not longer, JB looks to go down in flames with his December forecast. Sometimes patterns just lock in He knows, but he wasn't alone .There were a few others that thought there was a mid month flip and think December will turn. Did not happen at all. I am going to wait until the next set of "flip." guidance gets inside the 6 to 10 because ALL of the 10 to 15 and week 3 and 4 stuff is just missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 1 minute ago, PB GFI said: He knows, but he wasn't alone .There were a few others that thought there was a mid month flip and think December will turn. Did not happen at all. I am going to wait until the next set of "flip." guidance gets inside the 6 to 10 because ALL of the 10 to 15 and week 3 and 4 stuff is just missing something. The fixation on guidance is the problem, not the other way around. The Euro weeklies were terrible last November but yet there are still talked about every week, the skill of long range forecasting over two weeks in duration is actually worse than a coin flip. I prefer to look at the current pattern compared to the previous week and observe the changes, if the pattern is stable it's likely to persist. We often need large events to change it. The overmodeling of blocking over Greenland (-NAO) is a problem in the guidance that needs more investigating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 10 minutes ago, qg_omega said: The fixation on guidance is the problem, not the other way around. The Euro weeklies were terrible last November but yet there are still talked about every week, the skill of long range forecasting over two weeks in duration is actually worse than a coin flip. I prefer to look at the current pattern compared to the previous week and observe the changes, if the pattern is stable it's likely to persist. We often need large events to change it. The overmodeling of blocking over Greenland (-NAO) is a problem in the guidance that needs more investigating. If a "current " pattern looks bad that doesn't mean that the guidance will not pick up an evolution in one region that forces a reaction in another and forecasts a change in the different latitudes . Chris and I spoke last year about the weeklies on several occasions on how we just ignored them after week 3. They are brutal and are run off that days run of the ensembles and are just a crap shoot. There are times where the guidance in the 10 to 15 picks up changes and it's right. However so far the forcing in the Pacific is one piece that is overwhelming the pattern and this may take some time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 maybe there won't be a "flip." we're in the era of stagnant patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 7 minutes ago, forkyfork said: maybe there won't be a "flip." we're in the era of stagnant patterns You called 2011-2012 right before December because of the GOA low. Any similarities to this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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