snywx Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Tied it, 25 again this morning 28° here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 after a low of 44, sunny and 64 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Yet another day that the highs beat guidance as the firehose PAC Jet continues to flood NOAM with warmth. Caldwell SUNNY 70 30 22 CALM 30.05F Somerville SUNNY 70 28 21 SW6 30.04F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Given our tendency to lock patterns in place that firehouse could last for months. Looks very bad for winter lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 PB disappeared unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: PB disappeared unfortunately Hey Kev, I was only N days 1 thru 10 .The GFS ensembles agree with N ish I posted last week that the 1st start was a false one and that I thought the 15th thru the 25th would be BN. That doesn't look good . But should I thow Dec and Jan away on November 8th ? I don't take a seasons temp 6 weeks before it's start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Hey Kev, I was only N days 1 thru 10 .The GFS ensembles agree I posted last week that the 1st start was a false one and that I thought the 15th thru the 25th would be BN. That doesn't look good . But should I thow Dec and Jan away on November 8th. I don't take a seasons temp 6 weeks before it's start. I hear you.. but man have things taken an ugly turn for any cooling this month . Looks like Tgiving dinners are moving outside this year as families slap on sunscreen instead of sweaters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I hear you.. but man have things taken an ugly turn for any cooling this month . Looks like Tgiving dinners are moving outside this year as families slap on sunscreen instead of sweaters Yeh guidance aside it's a stumble out of the gate in days 10 thru 25 . I own that . I am still cold in Dec/Jan , luckily it's only Nov 8th and I think this gets straightened out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 1966 which is on my analog list had a mild Thanksgiving...A very mild first week of December before the pattern changed for the better...to get a cold December the arctic oscillation must be negative...very few cold Decembers had a positive AO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 8, 2016 Author Share Posted November 8, 2016 9 minutes ago, uncle W said: 1966 which is on my analog list had a mild Thanksgiving...A very mild first week of December before the pattern changed for the better...to get a cold December the arctic oscillation must be negative...very few cold Decembers had a positive AO... Delayed but not denied is what that sounds like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Honestly, I like to use December 10th as a target date. If we are not seeing substantial changes taking place in the pattern at that point then it may be time to start becoming concerned about a dud winter. This obviously does not always apply but may be a good target date to look at for this winter especially since the consensus seems to be for an early start to winter this year versus last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 1 hour ago, PB GFI said: Yeh guidance aside it's a stumble out of the gate in days 10 thru 25 . I own that . I am still cold in Dec/Jan , luckily it's only Nov 8th and I think this gets straightened out . November is on track for my +2 to +4 forecasted last month, early look on December is same as Nov +2 to +4 we are actually in a very stable wave pattern with all the cold air locked on the other side of the globe. Don't expect any negative NAO to help us as blocking will be overmodeled in the long range. I also like a negative pna to start December with a zonal PAC flow. We also lost our warm pool south of AK as the bearing seas low continues to produce very strong storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 9 minutes ago, qg_omega said: November is on track for my +2 to +4 forecasted last month, early look on December is same as Nov +2 to +4 we are actually in a very stable wave pattern with all the cold air locked on the other side of the globe. Don't expect any negative NAO to help us as blocking will be overmodeled in the long range. I also like a negative pna to start December with a zonal PAC flow. We also lost our warm pool south of AK as the bearing seas low continues to produce very strong storms. Good call. I did post that the back end of November would not negate the front part its warmth . Now I am not sure there is even a back end. The LR guidance is fast into the WC So wheels up and I will just circle . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 FWIW, (not much) I thought the 18z GEFS looked a bit better in the long range. More height rises in Alaska and Western Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 2 hours ago, PB GFI said: Good call. I did post that the back end of November would not negate the front part its warmth . Now I am not sure there is even a back end. The LR guidance is fast into the WC So wheels up and I will just circle . Really wanted a good start to winter, I'll be in the Adirondacks for turkey day would have loved to get first ski in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 From the CFS I would estimate another 7 BN days for the rest of the month. But there may be 5BN in the first 8 in Dec. Next 7 days should match the first 8 at +4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 14 hours ago, PB GFI said: Hey Kev, I was only N days 1 thru 10 .The GFS ensembles agree with N ish I posted last week that the 1st start was a false one and that I thought the 15th thru the 25th would be BN. That doesn't look good . But should I thow Dec and Jan away on November 8th ? I don't take a seasons temp 6 weeks before it's start. Yeah, we'll just have to wait and see how long this firehose PAC Jet keeps flooding North America with mild Pacific air. I just ran the numbers for October and the PAC Jet from 30-50N across the Pacific set a new record for intensity by a decent sized margin. You can see the ensembles bring the trough into the Western US in the 6-10 day period which will continue the warmth into later this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 Cold shot not looking that cold anymore. We will probably be in the 60's Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 CPC is still an infernal bore for the next 15 days, but with a near zero confidence level. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 6 hours ago, Allsnow said: Cold shot not looking that cold anymore. We will probably be in the 60's Sunday. not much cold air in our source regions....actually had an average temp day here, but of course it was with clouds and some very light showers...we were close to 70 yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 On 11/8/2016 at 8:26 PM, qg_omega said: Really wanted a good start to winter, I'll be in the Adirondacks for turkey day would have loved to get first ski in Bring a mt bike rather than skis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 On 11/8/2016 at 6:45 AM, bluewave said: Pacific air will continue to dominate the pattern as long as this impressive Pacific Jet keeps going and the Arctic air is locked up in Eurasia. Until there is a complete and total flip of the pattern in this graphic, we are not getting cold. Source regions are just getting torched. This looks to continue for at least the next 10 days at minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 I'm starting to get a sinking feeling in my stomach that we have another 11/12 on the way. We need a complete and utter pattern change. Even with a -nao and ao with all the cold air stuck in Asia and little or no snow in Canada even a northerly flow isn't going to cut it. Bring on the pattern change because the current weather is painful for a weather lover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I'm starting to get a sinking feeling in my stomach that we have another 11/12 on the way. We need a complete and utter pattern change. Even with a -nao and ao with all the cold air stuck in Asia and little or no snow in Canada even a northerly flow isn't going to cut it. Bring on the pattern change because the current weather is painful for a weather lover Just hate when the one eye pig in over Alaska. It has given us many bad winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Just hate when the one eye pig in over Alaska. It has given us many bad winter. Exactly. And this is why we need a complete patter change. Another ratter winter will put the nail in the coffin for allot of smaller ski resorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 We don't really need cold for snow, and cold doesn't guarantee snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly. And this is why we need a complete patter change. Another ratter winter will put the nail in the coffin for allot of smaller ski resorts. 1 hour ago, Cfa said: We don't really need cold for snow, and cold doesn't guarantee snow. Agree. Last year was a perfect example of getting lucky. I hate to roll the dice like that again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 Its. November. 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 GFSx at it again. +4 degrees over the next 7 with just one BN day. Chance for some clouds later in period is good, for precipitation not so good. Have you been filling your canteens for next summer's water shortages? http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Reservoir update: http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/drinking_water/maplevels_wide.shtml We are -15.2%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 12 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Its. November. 10th. i checked the calendar it is november 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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