PB GFI Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 39 minutes ago, BxEngine said: You have another link to cansips? This shows +2 or so. He was posting forecasts of + 6 to + 8 forecasts ad nauseum last January and February as we finished + 2 for each. This is not new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 37 minutes ago, bluewave said: The one interesting thing about the EPS is that it's finally showing the ridge shifting to the West Coast by day 10. But any below normal days will still be Pacific air masses as the Arctic air remains in Eurasia through at least the next 10 days. Yeh that wall looks firm through mid month. I do think we are colder week 3 and 4 than we are week 1 and 2 . The question is by how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 46 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Yeh that wall looks firm through mid month. I do think we are colder week 3 and 4 than we are week 1 and 2 . The question is by how much. We would need to see a sustained -EPO block develop and weaken the firehouse Pac Jet enough so some Arctic air could filter into Canada later in November. But the challenge would be if the EPO ridge can't build strongly enough and the PAC Jet undercuts the ridge delivering more Pacific air into North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: We would need to see a sustained -EPO block develop and weaken the firehouse Pac Jet enough so some Arctic air could filter into Canada later in November. But the challenge would be if the EPO ridge can't build strongly enough and the PAC Jet undercuts the ridge delivering more Pacific air into North America. I don't think we overcome the pos anomaly for the month . But when you switch out the 500 you will be cooler on the back end than the front. But the front is probably too far AN to erase . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Looks like the first legit lake effect event next weekend . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 12 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Looks like the first legit lake effect event next weekend . Possible first flakes for our area Lake regions might be piling up next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Highes again surpassed guidance today making into the 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 On November 4, 2016 at 0:34 PM, SnoSki14 said: Looks mild & dry for weeks to come and I'll take it. Looks like the record -AO in October is having zero effect as we soared AN and continue to do so. I see that playing into the winter where the -AO means nothing and all the cold stays in Eurasia. Wouldn't be surprised to see another very warm, dry winter if this continues. The AO tends to not have or I should say, often does not have a huge impact before mid or late December. We've seen many cases where it's negative in late fall or early winter and it's a relatively mild pattern. That is much more unlikely though as you approach January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Sunset (60°): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 16 of the 17 coldest Decembers since 1950 had a negative ao on average...16 of the 19 warmest Decembers had a plus AO on average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 17 minutes ago, uncle W said: 16 of the 17 coldest Decembers since 1950 had a negative ao on average...16 of the 19 warmest Decembers had a plus AO on average... 15 of the 20 snowiest Decembers had a negative ao on average...12 of 15 of the least snowiest Decembers had a positive ao on average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Sunset (60°): Peter Lik would charge 5k for a 48 x 48 of that. Frame that , great shot Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 During November, the AO's correlation with temperatures in the NYC area reaches 0.4 to 0.5. By mid-to-late November, it's a powerful influence on the area's temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Peter Lik would charge 5k for a 48 x 48 of that. Frame that , great shot Don. Thanks for the very kind words. Nature did the hard work. it was a gorgeous day overall and I got lucky to stop by for the sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 46 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Peter Lik would charge 5k for a 48 x 48 of that. Frame that , great shot Don. Lik would never publish such a beautiful and authentic image. He'd boost saturation 50 points or so, Photoshop in a wolf or the moon or something, and convince classless rich people that it's "fine art"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 EPS keeps getting colder for next weekend. Looks like a shot of some chilly air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: Lik would never publish such a beautiful and authentic image. He'd boost saturation 50 points or so, Photoshop in a wolf or the moon or something, and convince classless rich people that it's "fine art"... His game is he would charge 5k a piece and call it a limited edition. say 500 or so . Sell out. Then in 3 years re issue 1000 more . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: EPS keeps getting colder for next weekend. Looks like a shot of some chilly air With lake effect snow and snow flakes for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 Well that would kill viewing the supermoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 41 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Well that would kill viewing the supermoon Which is only imperceptibly bigger or brighter than a conventional full moon, so we'll gladly sacrifice it for a shot at the first interesting weather in months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 The calls for a change between the 10th and 15th can be seen when you combined the 6z GEFS day 6 to 10 with the Euro Control day 11 thru 15 850 anomalies ( dont worry the EPS is also BN in the 11 thru 15 ) and you get an idea of where the pattern should be headed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 On November 5, 2016 at 8:47 AM, bluewave said: The one interesting thing about the EPS is that it's finally showing the ridge shifting to the West Coast by day 10. But any below normal days will still be Pacific air masses as the Arctic air remains in Eurasia through at least the next 10 days. This still seems early to me PB. That was a very warm run for us on the 12z GEFS. The EPS is also trending warmer. In the short run, BN temps will be a reality this upcoming weekend. Aside from that, we look mostly AN through at least the 20th. That said, I do like the cold anomalies that begin showing up in much of the western CONUS after the 20th. That gives me hope that a pattern shift is on the way and we could start seeing more BN temps after the 25th or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 Gfs has flakes for everyone next weekend with lake effect. Nice pattern starting mid month on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 2 hours ago, jbenedet said: This still seems early to me PB. That was a very warm run for us on the 12z GEFS. The EPS is also trending warmer. In the short run, BN temps will be a reality this upcoming weekend. Aside from that, we look mostly AN through at least the 20th. That said, I do like the cold anomalies that begin showing up in much of the western CONUS after the 20th. That gives me hope that a pattern shift is on the way and we could start seeing more BN temps after the 25th or so... I think we are both on the same path. I am going to stick with just after the 15th as my starting point here. The entire pattern actually begins to change by day 5 at 500. You can see the retrogression in the GOA which kick starts the reversal at 500. I think the lag extends 5 day ish from there . I will agree that the 2M start off N but this goes BN by the 20th. The 18z GFS ensembles are getting colder and look like the Euro ensembles. I do want to see the models hold serve , but I am back out on a limb. I think the step down begins just after the 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 11 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I think we are both on the same path. I am going to stick with just after the 15th as my starting point here. The entire pattern actually begins to change by day 5 at 500. You can see the retrogression in the GOA which kick starts the reversal at 500. I think the lag extends 5 day ish from there . I will agree that the 2M start off N but this goes BN by the 20th. The 18z GFS ensembles are getting colder and look like the Euro ensembles. I do want to see the models hold serve , but I am back out on a limb. I think the step down begins just after the 15th November still looks solidly above normal, December remains to be seen I think we may go negative pna towards the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 20 minutes ago, qg_omega said: November still looks solidly above normal, December remains to be seen I think we may go negative pna towards the end of the month It's going to be difficult to erase the early monthly positive departures. If the last 10 days of November are BN and if there are snow chances I think most will take a + 2 overall if that's how we finish. I am BN for both December and January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 9 minutes ago, PB GFI said: It's going to be difficult to erase the early monthly positive departures. If the last 10 days of November are BN and if there are snow chances I think most will take a + 2 overall if that's how we finish. I am BN for both December and January Pretty impressive trough this weekend with very low thicknesses, it's too bad the source region is so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 23 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Pretty impressive trough this weekend with very low thicknesses, it's too bad the source region is so warm. It's only the first shot .But N at best is probably my thinking now. The retrogression at 500 starts around day 5 and the source region will begin to change by day 12 thru 15. The back end of the forecast period finally starts to bring in the colder anomalies. But we are starting to change the pattern between days 5 and 10 , the results come just after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 19 hours ago, PB GFI said: It's going to be difficult to erase the early monthly positive departures. If the last 10 days of November are BN and if there are snow chances I think most will take a + 2 overall if that's how we finish. I am BN for both December and January It's going to be very hard to get snow at the coast with water temps as warm as they are. We're going to need a perfectly placed low like November 12 to make it happen. With a straight northerly flow. Any hint of east and it's game over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 50 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It's going to be very hard to get snow at the coast with water temps as warm as they are. We're going to need a perfectly placed low like November 12 to make it happen. With a straight northerly flow. Any hint of east and it's game over I think that's going to be a problem 1st half of winter. 2nd half of winter, it will help us..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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