November 2016 Pattern Discussion

[snywx]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

25 for the low IMBY, which Upton had spot on in their forecast, with heavy, heavy frost.  

25° here as well..

[Allsnow]

Two cold shots coming this weekend as we escape the brunt of the torch 

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

Yeh , a good rule has been that the first start is usually a false one . I may have missed on the 6 thru 10 here ( which is BN on the GFS )   I  have since fallen back to day 15 - 30 , instead of day 10 -25 as my DN period .

The guidance does suggest that`s the case . I posted last week how the first shot would be polar pacific air . ( so not cold )  but N . 

A miss is a miss . 

 

The GFS ensembles agree 

6 - 10 / the EURO is warmer , so I DONT buy this . 

 

 

But I am buying this one  .

Day 10 -15 

 

I like the two cold shots, the first on day 4, and the second on day 12 because they are CP and arctic based. The latter looks longer in duration and more robust. The first should provide about 2 days of BN, and the second, 3-4 days. That being said, the PV remains well north in the arctic circle, and these arctic blasts are only transitory as lobes break off from time to time and progress south and east, and after they swing through we go back towards the main theme which is a more zonal/PAC influenced flow.

[CIK62]

Latest CANSIPS is a killjoy.   Does show any blue shades anywhere in the USA for the next 12months.   For us that would mean 32 consecutive AN months, if we excuse June 2015 which still had 17 to 13 above normal days, while coming in at -.20.    When do you stop calling normal the normal?

[NortheastPAWx]

7 hours ago, jbenedet said:

I like the two cold shots, the first on day 4, and the second on day 12 because they are CP and arctic based. The latter looks longer in duration and more robust. The first should provide about 2 days of BN, and the second, 3-4 days. That being said, the PV remains well north in the arctic circle, and these arctic blasts are only transitory as lobes break off from time to time and progress south and east, and after they swing through we go back towards the main theme which is a more zonal/PAC influenced flow.

So basically the same trend since about February or so.

[winterwarlock]

Yet another Indian summer day in shorts and t shirt

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

21 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Latest CANSIPS is a killjoy.   Does show any blue shades anywhere in the USA for the next 12months.   For us that would mean 32 consecutive AN months, if we excuse June 2015 which still had 17 to 13 above normal days, while coming in at -.20.    When do you stop calling normal the normal?

Entirely possible. But it doesn't mean we don't snow. 9-10 was a snowy winter and above normal. Though we are getting close to and I suspect will see a point where it's just to warm to snow here in the comming decades 

[bluewave]

70 degree temps showing up this hour puts us in the Nov 1-10 (70) degree high club which has been growing since 2000.

Nov 1-10 (70's) since 2000:

2016

2015

2013

2009

2005

2003

2001

[forkyfork]

the models backed off on the strength of the cold airmass this weekend

[dmillz25]

24 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the models backed off on the strength of the cold airmass this weekend

Blah still looks about N

[bluewave]

Eurasia is currently the place to be if you like cold and snow. The first half of November will be dominated by record warmth from the Upper Midwest

north to the Arctic with mild Pacific air over North America. Long range guidance continues to suggest a step down in temps for the second half of November.

 

 

 

 

[ForestHillWx]

I think the amount of cold and snow hammering Siberia, is going be fantastic for us down the line. 5-10 degrees below normal, in an area where average temps are close to freezing now; should pile up the snow coverage rapidly.

[Cfa]

These clouds need to go.

[Allsnow]

Clouds killing the torch today. Yesterday was nicer 

[bluewave]

Be interesting to see if we can get a coastal storm with an easterly fetch around the high astro tides associated with the Nov 14th supermoon.

We will only need a .5 foot surge for minor and a 1.5 surge for moderate coastal flooding since the astro tide will be very high.

http://www.space.com/34515-supermoon-guide.html

This full moon will be not only the closest and brightest supermoon of 2016 but also the largest since 1948, Bob Berman, an astronomer at the Slooh Community Observatory, told Space.com. What's more, the full moon won't come this close to Earth again until Nov. 25, 2034, according to a statement from NASA

[psv88]

4 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

I think the amount of cold and snow hammering Siberia, is going be fantastic for us down the line. 5-10 degrees below normal, in an area where average temps are close to freezing now; should pile up the snow coverage rapidly.

Wasn't there great snowpack in Siberia last November? I recall that, and i recall us torching all winter.

[PB GFI]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Be interesting to see if we can get a coastal storm with an easterly fetch around the high astro tides associated with the Nov 14th supermoon.

We will only need a .5 foot surge for minor and a 1.5 surge for moderate coastal flooding since the astro tide will be very high.

http://www.space.com/34515-supermoon-guide.html

This full moon will be not only the closest and brightest supermoon of 2016 but also the largest since 1948, Bob Berman, an astronomer at the Slooh Community Observatory, told Space.com. What's more, the full moon won't come this close to Earth again until Nov. 25, 2034, according to a statement from NASA

 

[BombsAway1288]

8 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Lol. Well that would be something else now, wouldn't it

[Rtd208]

11 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Lol. Well that would be something else now, wouldn't it

If only, but the way we have been going I won't believe it until it's actually happening. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Be interesting to see if we can get a coastal storm with an easterly fetch around the high astro tides associated with the Nov 14th supermoon.

We will only need a .5 foot surge for minor and a 1.5 surge for moderate coastal flooding since the astro tide will be very high.

http://www.space.com/34515-supermoon-guide.html

This full moon will be not only the closest and brightest supermoon of 2016 but also the largest since 1948, Bob Berman, an astronomer at the Slooh Community Observatory, told Space.com. What's more, the full moon won't come this close to Earth again until Nov. 25, 2034, according to a statement from NASA

I was just thinking about that yesterday. With the moon at its closest approach would the tides be higher then spring tides. Even a minor coastal will bring moderate flooding. A major coastal and we are talking widespread major coastal flooding not seen since Sandy. (Obviously not as high unless we are talking a December 92 type low)

[Fantom X]

42 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Wasn't there great snowpack in Siberia last November? I recall that, and i recall us torching all winter.

Super El Nino overwhelmed the pattern   

[cleetussnow]

15 minutes ago, Fantom X said:

Super El Nino overwhelmed the pattern   

I think a big cold anomoly anywhere within the 60th parallel is a positive sign at THIS stage of the game.  Should mean a broken up PV, and at some point down the line we should benefit.  Big fan of the -AO at present

[tdp146]

On 11/2/2016 at 0:33 PM, winterwarlock said:

Yet another Indian summer day in shorts and t shirt

Couldn't believe I was out walking the dog in shorts last night, again. The cold weather earlier in the week also didn't end the growing season IMBY like I thought. Not that I am really getting much production anymore. Just hope for a couple more sunny/warm days to ripen up whats left of the tomatoes and peppers. 

[PB GFI]

EURO op 

Day 7/8/9/10 are BN . 

Gone is yesterday`s torch in the 6 to 10 . 

[Dan76]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Be interesting to see if we can get a coastal storm with an easterly fetch around the high astro tides associated with the Nov 14th supermoon.

We will only need a .5 foot surge for minor and a 1.5 surge for moderate coastal flooding since the astro tide will be very high.

http://www.space.com/34515-supermoon-guide.html

This full moon will be not only the closest and brightest supermoon of 2016 but also the largest since 1948, Bob Berman, an astronomer at the Slooh Community Observatory, told Space.com. What's more, the full moon won't come this close to Earth again until Nov. 25, 2034, according to a statement from NASA

Mon-Wednesday look to be the highest  http://ny.usharbors.com/monthly-tides/New York-Long Island/Jones Inlet/2016-11  Same as last month

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Mon-Wednesday look to be the highest  http://ny.usharbors.com/monthly-tides/New York-Long Island/Jones Inlet/2016-11  Same as last month

The 6.45 level on the Sandy Hook gauge is about the highest astro tide that we see during the year. Minor flooding usually begins at the 6.7-7.0 level.

We usually get tides around that level with the highest astro tides during the year. But we seldom get the biggest storms to coincide with the

peak astro tides of the year. It was a very similar astro tide to October 17th.

10/17

Mon

09:05 AM

6.44 H

11/15

Tue

07:46 AM

6.45 H

[dWave]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Clouds killing the torch today. Yesterday was nicer 

Still managed 74 here though. Low to mid 70s not bad. I thought it might  stuck around  69, 70 with the clouds pretty much all day. 

[CIK62]

15 Day Outlook still shows type AB blood type  around here, oh I mean weather type.  LOL   The little nudge west  of the mid-western ridge and retrograde of AtlanticO trough delayed or is it not going to happen at all!?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

Yesterday some blue color was fighting it's way west from AtlanticO.

[BombsAway1288]

5 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

If only, but the way we have been going I won't believe it until it's actually happening. 

Very much agreed. The trend for god know how long has been to show hope in the medium/long range, only to weaken or completely take away threats. I just got a job deicing planes at EWR so I'm praying for an active season. Only time will tell. 

[Rtd208]

4 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Very much agreed. The trend for god know how long has been to show hope in the medium/long range, only to weaken or completely take away threats. I just got a job deicing planes at EWR so I'm praying for an active season. Only time will tell. 

In order for me to buy what a couple of the models are showing for next weekend we are going to have to be within 72 hours of the event. If it is still showing a storm at that time then I will buy it. But I will admit, seeing what the GFS was showing at 12z does get me a little excited.