ForestHillWx Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 Patience is key. The cold annomalies in Siberia are fantastic. Should produce an excellent snow pack, which may bode well for us in JFM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 9 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Yes the 5 day mean will look like that because there are a few plus 10s in it early on. BUT we are already BN on November 5 6 7 . That's the first shot but now I agree that the Colder shot looks to reload around the 11th as the source region for that changes to arctic. That NEG will get stuck in the east through months end . I would not be surprised if we are cold all the way through December. It's an early start this year and somewhere between the 10th and 15th most will recognize the pattern change/changing. The second shot is where the real reshuffling in the EP and Arctic takes place. Thankfully the torch is over after the 5th Models like to rush pattern changes so it may be AN to closer to N and then finally BN by mid to later in the month. Can't wait to see the Euro monthly update November 8th for December after the Oct 8th bullish December forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Models like to rush pattern changes so it may be AN to closer to N and then finally BN by mid to later in the month. I agree the first shot is almost always a false start. But after last year , we are now sitting here deciding whether our start time is Nov 10 vs Nov 15 , I will take that as a huge win . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 climatology speaking below freezing temperatures usually come during the second half of November in the city...if this winter is similar to 1966-67 there will be some all out blow torch's and periods of extreme cold...not to mention frequent snows at times...October will end up averaging close to 59.0...I think November end up averaging around 48.0 which is a little above average...Max of 70 the first half and a 28 min the second half... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 50 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 12z EPS is a little more bullish on that trough near the NE day 6-10 for the step down to near or below normal. So we may very well see the last 70 potential of the fall this week before the ridge starts pulling back to the NW. Much different pattern from last November where we were talking about a record warm November in the +5 range. Yep, the warmup coming is roughly 3 days then it turns into that Then 11 to 15 and I think 25 look BN. I agree, this has sped up and by day 11 LP N In the Barents Sea releases and the source region changes. It's why I believed the torch was short lived and the colder anomalies would show up before mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 I liked the 12z EPS today. You can see the Aleutian low retrograde, which in turn pumps up the +PNA, like it's been advertising. More importantly to me if you look at the 850 wind field in the arctic, look at what starts happening with the vectors. It's a slow process. From days 5 - 15, the winds start veering around towards Canada instead of into Siberia like they are now. That would start loading Canada up with some colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Looks like a cold shot this weekend for us while the rest of the country bakes in a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, at first it just looks like some stale cold to near normal before we have a shot at getting into something colder later on. But it should be a gradual process since there is still so much warmth across North America.The really warm 70+ temps should be limited to this week. Quite the departure from what we saw last November. Yeh better source region day 10 and beyond , Days 5 - 10 are N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 2 hours ago, PB GFI said: Yeh better source region day 10 and beyond , Days 5 - 10 are N Nov 10-15 look BN for the northeast, but looks like we go back to zonal flow and day 15 to 20, looks N to AN. It remains to be seen if these cold shots are meaningful signs of a pattern shift or something more transitory (i.e temporary disruptions in the existing pattern). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 18 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Nov 10-15 look BN for the northeast, but looks like we go back to zonal flow and day 15 to 20, looks N to AN. It remains to be seen if these cold shots are meaningful signs of a pattern shift or something more transitory (i.e temporary disruptions in the existing pattern). J looking at the guidance we may roll right through Mid DECEMBER , Euro weeklies look the same , At Day 15 , you still streaming air out of N Canada down into the lakes . It just naturally finds its way into the base of the trough , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 3 hours ago, PB GFI said: J looking at the guidance we may roll right through Mid DECEMBER , Euro weeklies look the same , At Day 15 , you still streaming air out of N Canada down into the lakes . It just naturally finds its way into the base of the trough , Yea I get it, generally a weak long-wave trough in the east. But honestly, that H500 is not exciting at all--way too much PAC influence, and no available cold source in Canada. H500 looks N to slight AN in the northeast after the 15th, once the PV lobe swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Pacific air dominates North America for the first half of November with all the Arctic air stuck in Eurasia. Need the ensembles to be correct about about the EPO drop second half to get it colder. Most impressive thing on this map is the record warmth in Arctic and all the cold and snow in Eurasia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Pacific air dominates North America for the first half of November with all the Arctic air stuck in Eurasia. Need the ensembles to be correct about about the EPO drop second half to get it colder. Most impressive thing on this map is the record warmth in Arctic and all the cold and snow in Eurasia. The good news for snow lovers is there is no way that will continue into the winter. If the AO stays that negative eventually the cold is coming to this side of the pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 EPS Parallel has the entire CONUS BN days 25-32. https://t.co/SniDfO6WQI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 50 minutes ago, Morris said: EPS Parallel has the entire CONUS BN days 25-32. https://t.co/SniDfO6WQI We all know what happened last year. The cold was advertised for December but we know what turned out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Pacific air dominates North America for the first half of November with all the Arctic air stuck in Eurasia. Need the ensembles to be correct about about the EPO drop second half to get it colder. Most impressive thing on this map is the record warmth in Arctic and all the cold and snow in Eurasia. Its amazing that day 5 thru 10 is colder than I thought and days 10 thru 15 is warmer than I thought. The weeklies are so cold from Nov 20 through Dec 10 I'm not sure if can even look at them seriously , it's just too far out not to mention they scode last year. 10 of my 15 days in my forecast are flipped so I am gona need to pin day 10 thru 15 down before I look at fantasy land . My one idea is that the model is not seeing the cold on the longer range on the EPS because there are some warm members skewing the mean. Or is day 5 to 10 the first shot and it pulls back then comes ? Not sure ... Take 5 days at a time, the next 5 should be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 I don't see anything to be enthused about insofar as protracted cold, and certainly snow, through D15 at least (probably beyond) at this juncture. High angular momentum state w/ intensifying m/l jet implicates generally warm conditions for most of the CONUS w/ the PV perturbation induced blocking forcing most of the cold into Asia/Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 The big big story for November is the forecasted record warmth stretching almost coast to coast, one of the strongest ridges on record looks to take hold over the center of the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 3 hours ago, Isotherm said: I don't see anything to be enthused about insofar as protracted cold, and certainly snow, through D15 at least (probably beyond) at this juncture. High angular momentum state w/ intensifying m/l jet implicates generally warm conditions for most of the CONUS w/ the PV perturbation induced blocking forcing most of the cold into Asia/Europe. Although I am reluctantly retreating from the 10th to 15th for the more prologned start I hate disagreeing with you here as I would rather have you on my side. I still like day 15 thru 25 . I may get a decent shot day 5 thru 10 , I was surprised at the backing off day 10 thru 15. This is not last year and we will not be under a ridge all November like last year . Expect that from the WC to the MISS the second half of the month will feature a trough in the east Don't buy the coast to coast that includes this area bllsht. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Current temp is 37 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 1, 2016 Author Share Posted November 1, 2016 39 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 15 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The good news for snow lovers is there is no way that will continue into the winter. If the AO stays that negative eventually the cold is coming to this side of the pole 13 hours ago, PB GFI said: Its amazing that day 5 thru 10 is colder than I thought and days 10 thru 15 is warmer than I thought. The weeklies are so cold from Nov 20 through Dec 10 I'm not sure if can even look at them seriously , it's just too far out not to mention they scode last year. 10 of my 15 days in my forecast are flipped so I am gona need to pin day 10 thru 15 down before I look at fantasy land . My one idea is that the model is not seeing the cold on the longer range on the EPS because there are some warm members skewing the mean. Or is day 5 to 10 the first shot and it pulls back then comes ? Not sure ... Take 5 days at a time, the next 5 should be nice. Yeah, it's a very slow process on the EPS weeklies. There is about a one week lag from the EPO going negative around the 14th along with the AO for the cold to arrive around November 20th to December 10th. You can also see the cold anomalies in Eurasia fading slightly as the Eastern half of the US gets colder. Very solid -EPO/-AO pattern November 14th-December 10th. If that pattern verifies, it could produce an early accumulating snowfall more than a trace post November 20th which would be early for us. Ryan Maue freebie...be interesting to see if the new EPS weeklies with upgraded ocean model gets this right They would redeem themselves from the big miss last December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Another frosty start 33 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 32. Lots of frost. 7 degrees below forecast low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 25 for the low IMBY, which Upton had spot on in their forecast, with heavy, heavy frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 12 hours ago, PB GFI said: Although I am reluctantly retreating from the 10th to 15th for the more prologned start I hate disagreeing with you here as I would rather have you on my side. I still like day 15 thru 25 . I may get a decent shot day 5 thru 10 , I was surprised at the backing off day 10 thru 15. This is not last year and we will not be under a ridge all November like last year . Expect that from the WC to the MISS the second half of the month will feature a trough in the east Don't buy the coast to coast that includes this area bllsht. Heh, that's a dangerous cycle to get into PB--to keep pushing the start point back, where the model accuracy remains the lowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 On 11/1/2016 at 10:14 AM, jbenedet said: Heh, that's a dangerous cycle to get into PB--to keep pushing the start point back, where the model accuracy remains the lowest. Yeh , a good rule has been that the first start is usually a false one . I may have missed on the 6 thru 10 here ( which is BN on the GFS ) I have since fallen back to day 15 - 30 , instead of day 10 -25 as my DN period . The guidance does suggest that`s the case . I posted last week how the first shot would be polar pacific air . ( so not cold ) but N . A miss is a miss . The GFS ensembles agree 6 - 10 / the EURO is warmer , so I DONT buy this . But I am buying this one . Day 10 -15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 13 hours ago, PB GFI said: Although I am reluctantly retreating from the 10th to 15th for the more prologned start I hate disagreeing with you here as I would rather have you on my side. I still like day 15 thru 25 . I may get a decent shot day 5 thru 10 , I was surprised at the backing off day 10 thru 15. This is not last year and we will not be under a ridge all November like last year . Expect that from the WC to the MISS the second half of the month will feature a trough in the east Don't buy the coast to coast that includes this area bllsht. Paul, I think the real key will be monitoring variables such as ENSO, MJO, and LF tropical forcing along with other background indicators which will provide clues as to the z500 evolution. Right now, the difficult question is the extent to which we will continue to experience a heightened angular momentum / El Nino type regime w/ the GOAK troughing? Will ENSO sufficiently couple such that the atmospheric response is more retracted jet by December? Will have to see how things progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 thursday is our next chance of 80. wednesday will probably beat guidance too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: We are only about 10 days away from the November 1995 and 2002 analog coming into play. I think we'll have a pretty good idea by then how this will turn out. If if see that H500 verify with the continuing retrograde of the ridge back to western NOAM, then we could see an early accumulation snow late November early December like 1995 and 2002. I agree and I think we will begin to see that look at 500 . I think there is snow @ KNYC before Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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