November 2016 Pattern Discussion

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The pattern is finally going to take on a classic La Niña look. It was just a matter of time. Models are showing a strong aleutian ridge developing and an RNA (-PNA). This is a classic westerly QBO during a  La Niña pattern

 

The models add a more poleward extension of the classic NP La Nina ridge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The models add a more poleward extension of the classic NP La Nina ridge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes sir! HM and Isotherm wrote about this. Classic La Nina during westerly QBO, poleward aleutian ridges. Modoki Ninas favor this as well

[WEATHERBUFF]

A classic La Nina is better for the interior.

[PB GFI]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The models add a more poleward extension of the classic NP La Nina ridge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The idea of the retrogression and differences at 500 by the 20th worked really well .

Since the 20th which was the target date NYC- 8 - 7 -7 -5- 2 , look for Sunday/Monday to be BN as well. 

NYC is now only +1.3 for November . I didn't think the back 10 would erase the front 20 but it was good too see the period cut into the departures .

 

Dec and Jan are my 2 favored months and I am just colder than Tom ( Isotherm) in Dec who likes the 15th into early January. 

I think we both hate February. 

We could rally from early December onward  as a -EPO appears.

The one way this goes wrong is if the AO goes POS ( it does head to N in the guidance)  , you don't want to lose the higher heights in the upper latitudes. 

We had a -PNA -AO in Dec 2010 , but typically have those 2 together are killers, so why take chances. 

 

 

[NortheastPAWx]

4 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

A classic La Nina is better for the interior.

Yeah, how many times over the past six years have we heard how the interior will get its...

[SnowGoose69]

9 hours ago, PB GFI said:

The idea of the retrogression and differences at 500 by the 20th worked really well .

Since the 20th which was the target date NYC- 8 - 7 -7 -5- 2 , look for Sunday/Monday to be BN as well. 

NYC is now only +1.3 for November . I didn't think the back 10 would erase the front 20 but it was good too see the period cut into the departures .

 

Dec and Jan are my 2 favored months and I am just colder than Tom ( Isotherm) in Dec who likes the 15th into early January. 

I think we both hate February. 

We could rally from early December onward  as a -EPO appears.

The one way this goes wrong is if the AO goes POS ( it does head to N in the guidance)  , you don't want to lose the higher heights in the upper latitudes. 

We had a -PNA -AO in Dec 2010 , but typically have those 2 together are killers, so why take chances. 

 

 

Unfortunately with a La Niña the AO flipping positive is often a risk in the 2nd half of January or sometimes even a bit earlier than that.  Given this La Niña has some unusual characteristics though it's hard to say how it'll behave. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

 

If the poleward extension of that ridge can result in a more neutral or negative epo than is typically the case for a La Nina December, then January may work

out colder than the canonical La Nina. This was the case in the La Nina winters of 67-68, 83-84, 84-85, and 08-09.

Problem developing for December is that you have a strongly negative PNA as well as a strengthening SE ridge. The AO and NAO are starting to head towards neutral and some of the new members have them going slightly positive. This looks to continue through mid December at least

[PB GFI]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

 

If the poleward extension of that ridge can result in a more neutral or negative epo than is typically the case for a La Nina December, then January may work

out colder than the canonical La Nina. This was the case in the La Nina winters of 67-68, 83-84, 84-85, and 08-09.

 

You can see the changes in the Pacific now. 

Both the EPO and WPO are going NEG. 

Cold signals in the east it is supported very well by the the EPS at 500 days 5 thru 15.

Check out how cold the EPS ensemble anomalies turn after day 5 thru 15  . I posted the maps away

The 2M change in November literally flipped on the 20th.

If those maps are right, early December is probably cold.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

2 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

You can see the changes in the Pacific now. 

Both the EPO and WPO are going NEG. 

Cold signals in the east it is supported very well by the the EPS at 500 days 5 thru 15.

Check out how cold the EPS ensemble anomalies turn after day 5 thru 15  . I posted the maps away

The 2M change in November literally flipped on the 20th.

If those maps are right, early December is probably cold.

looks to be below Avg after the Dec 2-5 warmth 

[PB GFI]

9 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

looks to be below Avg after the Dec 2-5 warmth 

The 3rd 4th and 5th look BN to me on the EPS.

[PB GFI]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

 

The ensembles the last few days have been hitting the -EPO/-WPO and 50/50 low harder to start December. So the pattern looks cooler than just a few days ago.

But we'll see how things go later on when the -AO is expected to fade. If the 50/50 gets stuck in place, then that will tend to dampen the SE Ridge.

 

 

 

 

I never thought the last 10 days of November would catch the front but November is likely to finish very close to + 1ish 

I like my Dec - 3 

I think the sustained  torch pattern is gone for a while .

 

Now let's see if this turn colder can put points on the board over the next 2 to 3 weeks. 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

18 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

The 3rd 4th and 5th look BN to me on the EPS.

Your correct 1st and 2nd look to be warmest, then cool off with mostly BN temps, followed by just a 1-2 day stretch around Dec 6 of ~0 to +1 then it cools back off

[PB GFI]

40 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Your correct 1st and 2nd look to be warmest, then cool off with mostly BN temps, followed by just a 1-2 day stretch around Dec 6 of ~0 to +1 then it cools back off

 

Agreed. 

[EastonSN+]

This is going to be one of those years with a lot of change over events like 92 93. 1 to 4 inches then ice and rain. In these types of gradient patterns we usually see average snowfall. Just my 2 cents from tracking for 25 yrs.

[PB GFI]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

Both the EPS and GEFS are on the same page developing a strong North Pacific block centered near the Bering Sea to start December.

They also keep that 50/50 trough close to the Northeast US.

 

 

 

 

 

The Atlantic trough just deepens in the LR.

So redevelopers could be common. 

The bigger key for me is the-WPO/-EPO developing. 

That jet is bending off Siberia into Canada it finds its way into Manitoba and down through the lakes . 

 

Thats a cold pattern 

 

[Allsnow]

Euro is wet this week close to 3 inches of rain

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

We have been getting quite a bit of blocking help on the Pacific side since the 13-14 winter. Even last winter with the super El Nino we pulled a rare January -EPO out of the hat.

 

 

It looks like the series of wet and windy storms this week sets the 50/50 low in place after they move through into early December.

hopefully we can get a system to stay weak enough to give us a snow chance around the 5th

[WEATHERBUFF]

15 hours ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Yeah, how many times over the past six years have we heard how the interior will get its...

I know, but we are due!

[PB GFI]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

We have been getting quite a bit of blocking help on the Pacific side since the 13-14 winter. Even last winter with the super El Nino we pulled a rare January -EPO out of the hat.

 

 

It looks like the series of wet and windy storms this week sets the 50/50 low in place after they move through into early December.

 

 

The 6 thru 15 is just flat out cold on the EPS.

 

Have to see if that sticks around in the guidance in the coming days. 

 

Impressive 

[PB GFI]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

 

It will be interesting to see if the new upgraded weeklies are correct in keeping this general pattern going right into January.

 

I saw them. Aggressive cold  no ? 

I hate the skill after week 3 , the old ones killed me  last year. 

But I agree they do show the ridge near H/B for the month.

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, PB GFI said:

 

I saw them. Aggressive cold  no ? 

I hate the skill after week 3 , the old ones killed me  last year. 

But I agree they do show the ridge near H/B for the month.

Yeah, the new upgraded weeklies have been showing some skill with the pattern through day 14-21.

In any event, a block near Alaska and Greenland to start December is a departure from recent years

 

 

December 2011-2015 500 mb composite

 

 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the new upgraded weeklies have been showing some skill with the pattern through day 14-21.

In any event, a block near Alaska and Greenland to start December is a departure from recent years

 

 

December 2011-2015 500 mb composite

 

 

The modeling wants to put the mean trough in the Rockies, Plains and Upper Midwest as he head into December 

[packbacker]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The modeling wants to put the mean trough in the Rockies, Plains and Upper Midwest as he head into December 

Wonder if we just end up seeing a typical weak -ENSO/+QBO pattern setup as the predominate pattern.  So far no sign of a displaced GOA ridge...so far (knock on wood).

I think most here would take that pattern...

 

[PB GFI]

46 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Wonder if we just end up seeing a typical weak -ENSO/+QBO pattern setup as the predominate pattern.  So far no sign of a displaced GOA ridge...so far (knock on wood).

I think most here would take that pattern...

 

 

My only problem with the 6z GFS digging the vortex into SE Canada was yesterday it displaced it all over the N Hemisphere from 0z to 18z.

 

But you can see a -EPO/-WPO developing and that should send HP through the lakes enough so that confluence should deflect those ejection lows out of the 4 corners. 

 

The EPS is centering the NEG deep into S cali and the NEG PNA is being filled with air from Canada not Hawaii.

So your not dealing with any mild PAC air, that's done .

We do have to deal with the SE ridge being kicked up and the idea is that enough of a gradient could set up to mitigate that. 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

My only problem with the 6z GFS digging the vortex into SE Canada was yesterday it displaced it all over the N Hemisphere from 0z to 18z.

 

But you can see a -EPO/-WPO developing and that should send HP through the lakes enough so that confluence should deflect those ejection lows out of the 4 corners. 

 

The EPS is centering the NEG deep into S cali and the NEG PNA is being filled with air from Canada not Hawaii.

So your not dealing with any mild PAC air, that's done .

We do have to deal with the SE ridge being kicked up and the idea is that enough of a gradient could set up to mitigate that. 

The bar has been set so high for December warmth here the last 5 years that I will consider the month cold if NYC averages under 40 +2.5 and 70 max.

[PB GFI]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The bar has been set so high for December warmth here the last 5 years that I will consider the month cold if NYC averages under 40 +2.5 and 70 max.

I will take a + 2 winter with a favorable 500 

 

on record with a colder Dec than that. 

[PB GFI]

1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Wonder if we just end up seeing a typical weak -ENSO/+QBO pattern setup as the predominate pattern.  So far no sign of a displaced GOA ridge...so far (knock on wood).

I think most here would take that pattern...

 

 

The 12z GFS went right to this.

Weenie run.

[MJO812]

Storm to watch for Dec 4-7 timeframe?

[dmillz25]

5 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

The 12z GFS went right to this.

Weenie run.

Nice arctic outbreak it's showing 

[PB GFI]

Just now, dmillz25 said:

Nice arctic outbreak it's showing 

 

The vortex is over Manitoba. The entire N Hemisphere is cold .

Days 10 thru 15 are cold and snowy but its 1 OP that  weenies out in L/R , caution.

 

I want to see the EPS as it hinted at coast to coast cold yesterday in its day 8 to 15