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November 2016 Pattern Discussion


dmillz25

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1 hour ago, pazzo83 said:

Past 3 days really have.  From about 10pm Saturday until late last night, we had basically sustained 20-30mph winds here with gusts hitting 50-60.  Don't remember a period of quite that length with such consistent strong winds.  Oh the joys of Battery Park City in the winter...

I can't believe the winds still up today. It's been a complete nightmare for me doing leaf cleanup. The wind here at Columbia on a west wind comes right up the hill in riverside park off the Hudson with all the leaves with it.

 

As far as temps last night it was all about the wind. West Hampton was only a couple degrees cooler then the park. Tonight if winds go calm they will drop in to the upper teens while the park sits around 40

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That was certainly one of the longest stretches of wind advisory type winds I can remember. Through it all I still haven't hit freezing and more surprising is that I still have a ton of leaves on the tree in my backyard. Usually have the guys do fall clean up today. Had to push it to next week 

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1 hour ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

It looks like maybe we could get one in the summer.....we are due!

I doubt we would see a departure like that in the summer months. Correct me if I'm wrong but that would mean an avg. daily high of around 100 for the entire month. That's not happening, at least not in this lifetime

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44 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I can't believe the winds still up today. It's been a complete nightmare for me doing leaf cleanup. The wind here at Columbia on a west wind comes right up the hill in riverside park off the Hudson with all the leaves with it.

 

As far as temps last night it was all about the wind. West Hampton was only a couple degrees cooler then the park. Tonight if winds go calm they will drop in to the upper teens while the park sits around 40

 

21 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

That was certainly one of the longest stretches of wind advisory type winds I can remember. Through it all I still haven't hit freezing and more surprising is that I still have a ton of leaves on the tree in my backyard. Usually have the guys do fall clean up today. Had to push it to next week 

 

It produced the second lowest blowout tides of the year here on the Great South Bay. There were numerous boats at low tide sitting on the sand at the marinas.

 

BT.gif

 

BOT.gif

 

 

 

 

 

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Had my first freeze in Dobbs on Monday, 11/21, with a low of 32F. Last night got down to 33F. Cold daytime highs have been a bigger story.

And it would be impossible to be +13 in summer. Not enough jet stream variation in those months considering the mean jet is in northern Canada. Summer departures are usually from -4 to +4, and depend more on local conditions than 500mb.

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2 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Had my first freeze in Dobbs on Monday, 11/21, with a low of 32F. Last night got down to 33F. Cold daytime highs have been a bigger story.

And it would be impossible to be +13 in summer. Not enough jet stream variation i  those months considering the mean jet is in northern Canada. Summer departures are usually from -4 to +4.

If we ever get a +13 summer month, it's time to start prepping Mars.

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8 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

If we ever get a +13 summer month, it's time to start prepping Mars.

We had a very warm summer 2016 and yet June was average, July around +2, and August near +3.5. Nowhere close to +13.

The exact numbers for KNYC were June @ +0.8F, July @+2.2F, and August @ +4.0F. One of the warmer summer$ in recent times, but the total departure was +2.3F. Definitely noticeable as a warm summer even though it was nothing compared to the Dec 2015 or Dec 2006 departure and incessant warmth..

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I believe the only areas of the US that have experienced near +10 departures during the summer have been on the Great Plains during extreme drought.

There may have also been departures approaching these levels over portions of the interior Western US.

 

Wichita Falls, TX summer 2011 extreme drought and heat

Jun...+9.8

Jul...+8.1

Aug...+9.9

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1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said:

I doubt we would see a departure like that in the summer months. Correct me if I'm wrong but that would mean an avg. daily high of around 100 for the entire month. That's not happening, at least not in this lifetime

We have had 5+ departures, so something a little higher may happen.

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I believe the only areas of the US that have experienced near +10 departures during the summer have been on the Great Plains during extreme drought.

There may have also been departures approaching these levels over portions of the interior Western US.

 

Wichita Falls, TX summer 2011 extreme drought and heat

Jun...+9.8

Jul...+8.1

Aug...+9.9

Wow... not a single day in July '11 had a high below 100F.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCWC/2011/7/23/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=Wichita Falls&req_state=TX&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=76302&reqdb.magic=7&reqdb.wmo=99999

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10 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Austin, TX hit its all time record high of 111F in Aug 2011 and also had upward of 50-60 days or more above 100 that summer. Also, wildfires created almost constant smoky conditions in the city. Summers down there are brutal enough under normal conditions, I can't imagine days above 110F (and the heat there often isn't a dry heat). The only part of the country that's hotter is the desert Southwest. 

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22 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

It's even more remarkable when you consider that the average JJA temperature in Phoenix is 93 and that summer Wichita Falls averaged 91.9.

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I can't believe the winds still up today. It's been a complete nightmare for me doing leaf cleanup. The wind here at Columbia on a west wind comes right up the hill in riverside park off the Hudson with all the leaves with it.

 

As far as temps last night it was all about the wind. West Hampton was only a couple degrees cooler then the park. Tonight if winds go calm they will drop in to the upper teens while the park sits around 40

Just finished doing my leaves. Leaves were like snowdrifts around my yard, all the leaves from the block blew right into my property, complete nightmare. I may hire someone to do it next year. Ive spent the last 4 weekends doing the leaves, combined 16 hours of time. Huge waste of time.

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Just finished doing my leaves. Leaves were like snowdrifts around my yard, all the leaves from the block blew right into my property, complete nightmare. I may hire someone to do it next year. Ive spent the last 4 weekends doing the leaves, combined 16 hours of time. Huge waste of time.

Yeah, I go the maintenance route.  Twice a week I fill up half a bag or so with little piles as they collect.  Like you said though, even with the trees surrounding our whole property being bare, I still had to gather up some massive piles today from the wind blowing other people's leaves back over.  Seems like the neighborhood is pretty leaf-free now, so maybe just one more bag to fill this season.

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53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Turning out to be a much cooler November than last year in NYC  despite all the warmth across the remainder of North America.

NYC

Nov 16...50.3...+1.4...so far

Nov 15...52.8...+5.1

In the beginning of the month the ensembles had us in our own little world relative to the rest of the country. They did pretty well with that. 

 

 

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone 

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23 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

In the beginning of the month the ensembles had us in our own little world relative to the rest of the country. They did pretty well with that. 

 

 

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone 

 

The ridge was just far enough to the west for the major +11.2 warmth to be focused around the Bismarck, ND area.

 

16.gif

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the models are correct about the EPO and WPO drop the next few weeks which would cool North America off if it verifies.

Hopefully, they do a better job on this than they did with the -AO forecast a week ago which was too strong.

 

CyCkj99XUAASmjp.jpg-small.jpg

 

 

The pattern is finally going to take on a classic La Niña look. It was just a matter of time. Models are showing a strong aleutian ridge developing and an RNA (-PNA). This is a classic westerly QBO during a  La Niña pattern

 

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