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November 2016 Pattern Discussion


dmillz25

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13 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

34 here in Haverstraw and 38 at the park. Can the city finally hit the freezing mark?

Guidance has been consistently too cold the last few days so no freeze yet in NYC. If NYC can't sneak in a freeze next week, then we'll have 

our first NYC freeze of season in December. Delayed first freezes into December for NYC have been becoming more common since 1998.

Delayed first freezes in NYC into December since 1998:

2011

2010

2009

2006

2001

1998

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

For some perspective, if today's forecast is reasonably accurate, November 2016 will now be colder than December 2015 was.

Yeah, NYC is 50.8 through 11/22 with the forecast for it to drop over the remainder of the month. Last December finished right at 50.8.

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39 minutes ago, doncat said:

And this month will still finish a couple of degrees above normal but beat last Dec...that's how amazingly warm Dec was.

Yeah, last December was the 3rd extreme warm departure month in the US since 2006. It will be interesting to see where and when the next one occurs.

Dec 15....NYC....+13.3

Mar 12....MSP....+15.5

Jan 06.....BIS.....+16.6

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52 minutes ago, doncat said:

And this month will still finish a couple of degrees above normal but beat last Dec...that's how amazingly warm Dec was.

December 2015 was historic. Another comparison:

Lows 50° or above:

December 2015: 11 days; November 2016: 2 days (November record: 12 days, 1931)

Highs 60° or above:

December 2015: 11 days; November 2016: 12 days

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27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, last December was the 3rd extreme warm departure month in the US since 2006. It will be interesting to see where and when the next one occurs.

Dec 15....NYC....+13.3

Mar 12....MSP....+15.5

Jan 06.....BIS.....+16.6

It looks like maybe we could get one in the summer.....we are due!

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Just now, ForestHillWx said:

24 this morning out my way...had the winter feel to it.

Past 3 days really have.  From about 10pm Saturday until late last night, we had basically sustained 20-30mph winds here with gusts hitting 50-60.  Don't remember a period of quite that length with such consistent strong winds.  Oh the joys of Battery Park City in the winter...

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36 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Low of 35 in the park - onto December we go.

First freezes in December have become more common in recent years.

December First Freezes:

1902
1907
1948
1963
1985
1998
2001
2006
2009
2010
2011

Latest: December 22, 1998

Winters with 30" or More Snowfall:

 

1907-08: 33.4”
1948-49: 46.6”
1963-64: 44.7”
2009-10: 51.4”
2010-11: 61.9”

Winters with < 15" Snowfall:

1985-86: 13.0”
1998-99: 12.7”
2001-02:   3.5”
2006-07: 12.4”
2011-12:   7.4”

 

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