PB GFI Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 15 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Due to the insanely warm western Atlantic SSTs I think we may have southeast ridge issues through early January at times. JB and a few other mets pointed this out back in October and it makes sense I'm not saying it can't develop but there's a trough through the CONUS. Our problem is the PACIFIC, I don't see any ridge popping yet. Watch day 10 just away from the coast, I like that system for the interior . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 1 hour ago, PB GFI said: There's no SE ridge , or at least I don't see it.It's all trough stuck under high heights. I tried cutting and pasting the 10 day 500 mb OP and EPS. I am on my phone, can you throw up what you are seeing, I'm Just not seeing that . Look again it's not dominant but it's there. That system around the 30th-1st will be a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Look again it's not dominant but it's there. That system around the 30th-1st will be a cutter The 30th Center probably runs to Beckley , there's a chance it redevelops to our east, but too late for the coast. Yesterday that was going to Chicago, that probably comes under the high heights in H/B. That could be a decent interior event. There's no SE ridge in the means at 500 . That jet does buckle in the SE , but that's more of a PAC issue that a SE problem. The trough just bowls through. When you look at the 500 , you can see all trough in the East. Our issue is the Pacific. Just the way I see it my man , those higher heights near Cuba never extend N after 216. Maybe we are seeing the same anomaly but I think it's too far S to even look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 6 hours ago, bluewave said: The Pacific still doesn't want to play ball. That's a pretty ugly PAC, though heights are starting to build in the GoA. Looks to me as if we may see a lot of redevelopers/SWFEs that benefit the interior due to the massive NAO block, could be a very snowy period for New England and Upstate. I suspect Nov 30/Dec 1 is a cutter, but what happens before and after is up in the air. We have a near perfect 50/50 low and powerful -NAO. If that PAC ridge can build just slightly more, could see a very big snowstorm. Otherwise, expect a lot of mixed events with a gradient across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 6 hours ago, bluewave said: You will need the Pacific to cooperate if you want that block to pay off at least in around 10 days or so. Otherwise you just get a very fast flow with a parade of storms running across the area from the SW. This. Very unfavorable Pacific. You can get all the -AO and -NAO you want but with a garbage Pacific you will have big issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: This. Very unfavorable Pacific. You can get all the -AO and -NAO you want but with a garbage Pacific you will have big issues The main question now is the trough shifting into the Western US a transition pattern or does it get stuck there? Trough stuck off the West Coast since the beginning of October Euro and GFS shift trough into Western US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 48 minutes ago, bluewave said: The main question now is the trough shifting into the Western US a transition pattern or does it get stuck there? Trough stuck off the West Coast since the beginning of October Euro and GFS shift trough into Western US Looks like we need to wait until middle December for the trough to move east. South east ridge and troughing in the west means get ready for cutter s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like we need to wait until middle December for the trough to move east. South east ridge and troughing in the west means get ready for cutter s Yea man. Looks like a full-latitude trough dumps in the west come early December. That would definitely have lakes cutters written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yea man. Looks like a full-latitude trough dumps in the west come early December. That would definitely have lakes cutters written all over it It depends, with a negative NAO you can sometimes get some sort of minor snow event with a western trof, as long as the system doesn't deepen too much or too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 22, 2016 Author Share Posted November 22, 2016 Maybe one of these cutters can deepen and change up the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It depends, with a negative NAO you can sometimes get some sort of minor snow event with a western trof, as long as the system doesn't deepen too much or too early True, snow events are still doable but need to be more thread the needle. Here's a good illustration of the problem if anyone is looking for arctic cold. No cross-polar flow, everything is blocked up in Eurasia still and you have a firehose Pacific jet. This is just Pacific polar air flooding in on our side of the pole. The Pacific is staying ugly with fast flow for the foreseeable future: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 35 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like we need to wait until middle December for the trough to move east. South east ridge and troughing in the west means get ready for cutter s Yeh , it's there this morning. When I saw that at 0z I cursed you . Not sure how long it's there again my issues are the PAC , that has legs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 46 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like we need to wait until middle December for the trough to move east. South east ridge and troughing in the west means get ready for cutter s The good news is the area will have a chance at seeing above normal rainfall into early December to help put a dent the drought conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 at least the mountain towns of the west will start getting hit good with snow, its been a terrible start to the season for them...16 inches YTD for Alta so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 27 minutes ago, qg_omega said: at least the mountain towns of the west will start getting hit good with snow, its been a terrible start to the season for them...16 inches YTD for Alta so far! Yeah, North America is just beginning to climb out of the basement while Eurasia continues with record snowfall. http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Cool Map i stole from the NE thread showing the NW Suffolk "jackpot" yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 These look nice moving forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 42 minutes ago, Snow88 said: These look nice moving forward Keep an eye on the PNA. If that goes negative, the trough could dump out west, even if the NAO helps dampen southeast ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Keep an eye on the PNA. If that goes negative, the trough could dump out west, even if the NAO helps dampen southeast ridging. Negative PNA looks likely for the start of december, this favors the SE ridge building back with cutters and rain to start the first few weeks of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 22, 2016 Author Share Posted November 22, 2016 7 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Negative PNA looks likely for the start of december, this favors the SE ridge building back with cutters and rain to start the first few weeks of the month. Also promotes swfes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 58 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Negative PNA looks likely for the start of december, this favors the SE ridge building back with cutters and rain to start the first few weeks of the month. Yep. The problem here is the Pacific. Still very fast zonal flow, firehose jet. -AO and -NAO don't save you when you have a total junk Pacific pattern. Our weather moves west to east so it's overriding the benefits of the -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 On 11/8/2016 at 6:08 PM, qg_omega said: November is on track for my +2 to +4 forecasted last month, early look on December is same as Nov +2 to +4 we are actually in a very stable wave pattern with all the cold air locked on the other side of the globe. Don't expect any negative NAO to help us as blocking will be overmodeled in the long range. I also like a negative pna to start December with a zonal PAC flow. We also lost our warm pool south of AK as the bearing seas low continues to produce very strong storms. Forecast looks on track for December, issued in early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 47 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep. The problem here is the Pacific. Still very fast zonal flow, firehose jet. -AO and -NAO don't save you when you have a total junk Pacific pattern. Our weather moves west to east so it's overriding the benefits of the -NAO We need help from the pacific which I hope will happen in the middle of the month. Would be nice as it is closer to the holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 22, 2016 Author Share Posted November 22, 2016 Some models are showing the PAC jet buckling around day 8ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 33/17 right now... Should get below 25 tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 38f currently. should get below 30 for the 1st time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Nao on the Euro is negative moving forward We need help from the pna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 The coast obviously needs help from the pacific until then inland areas will be the only ones to see snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 22, 2016 Author Share Posted November 22, 2016 2 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: The coast obviously needs help from the pacific until then inland areas will be the only ones to see snow Yes the coast would need a thread the needle event but even then I think we can get systems to start at least with snow. Gfs has the epo going negative after the 29th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.