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November 2016 Pattern Discussion


dmillz25

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14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like more light snow thanksgiving morning before a change to light rain NYC north. Both euro and gfs have precipitation coming in early 

Looks like enough to get the salt trucks out again thanksgiving morning North and West of the city before it flips to rain

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Yep

This has trended colder over the past few days. Maybe some more accumulating snow north and west of NYC.

I doubt anything more than a dusting/coating because the precip rates look very light but it will be coming in the pre daylight hours and the ground will be relatively cold. Should definitely be enough to make the roads slick and get the plow trucks out salting North and West 

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Yesterday was the first day with a trace of snow this season although most places saw it late on the 19th...

first date for snow in Central Park...
Year.....trace.....0.1"
1947...11/15...12/10
1948...11/29...12/15
1949...11/18...11/27

1950...11/21...12/16
1951...11/03...12/15
1952...10/21...10/21
1953...11/06...11/06
1954...11/02...12/21
1955...11/19...11/19
1956...11/23...12/09
1957...11/23...12/03
1958...11/03...12/08
1959...11/29...11/29

1960...10/24...12/11
1961...11/09...12/09
1962...10/26...12/09
1963...11/30...12/12
1964...12/06...12/06
1965...10/28...01/20
1966...12/02...12/21
1967...11/07...11/30
1968...11/12...12/15
1969...11/30...12/25

1970...12/05...12/15
1971...11/10...01/05
1972...10/18...01/29 latest date for first 0.1"+...
1973...12/11...12/16
1974...11/25...11/25
1975...11/14...12/22
1976...11/29...12/25
1977...11/12...11/27
1978...11/21...11/27
1979...10/10...12/19 earliest date for first trace...

1980...11/17...12/15
1981...12/06...12/11
1982...12/11...12/12
1983...11/25...12/22
1984...11/13...12/05
1985...11/16...12/05
1986...11/05...12/09
1987...11/06...11/11
1988...12/10...12/13
1989...11/22...11/22

1990...12/05...12/27
1991...11/08...12/05
1992...12/11...12/12
1993...11/20...12/11
1994...11/23...01/11
1995...11/12...11/29
1996...11/14...11/28
1997...11/14...01/18
1998...12/23...12/23
1999...12/27...01/20

2000...10/29...12/08
2001...12/17...01/07
2002...10/29...12/05
2003...12/05...12/05
2004...11/13...12/19
2005...11/24...12/04
2006...01/10...01/19 latest date for the first trace...
2007...11/19...12/02
2008...11/20...12/16
2009...12/05...12/19

2010...11/08...12/14
2011...10/29...10/29
2012...11/07...11/07

2013...11/12...12/06

2014...11/13...11/26

2015...12/28...01/17

2016...11/20...

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24 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Look at that blocking though to our north

 

You will need the Pacific to cooperate if you want that block to pay off at least in around 10 days or so. Otherwise you just get a very fast  flow with a parade of

storms running across the area from the SW.

 

eps_uv200_exnamer_37.png

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

You will need the Pacific to cooperate if you want that block to pay off at least in around 10 days or so. Otherwise you just get a very fast  flow with a parade of

storms running across the area from the SW.

 

eps_uv200_exnamer_37.png

 

Euro looks alot better than the gfs though

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Where? The end of the run looks alot better than the gfs.

It's at the end of the run. If you can't see that I don't know what to tell you. The EPS also hitting the southeast ridge hard with trough in the west. That's what happens when you have a -pna 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

It's at the end of the run. If you can't see that I don't know what to tell you. The EPS also hitting the southeast ridge hard with trough in the west. That's what happens when you have a -pna 

There's no SE ridge , or at least I don't see it.It's all trough stuck under high heights. 

I tried cutting and pasting the 10 day 500 mb OP and EPS.

I am on my phone, can you throw up what you are seeing, I'm Just not seeing that .

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18 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

There's no SE ridge , or at least I don't see it.It's all trough stuck under high heights. 

I tried cutting and pasting the 10 day 500 mb OP and EPS.

I am on my phone, can you throw up what you are seeing, I'm Just not seeing that .

Due to the insanely warm western Atlantic SSTs I think we may have southeast ridge issues through early January at times.  JB and a few other mets pointed this out back in October and it makes sense

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