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November 2016 Pattern Discussion


dmillz25

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43 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Hopefully we kill two birds with one stone and get our first snow and freeze the same day. How often has that happened?

The last time was November 12, 2013. NYC had more of a NW to N flow with a strong Arctic high building down.

We'll see how good the MOS does which gets NYC close at 33 degrees with more of a W flow.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2013/11/12/DailyHistory.html

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26 minutes ago, doncat said:

Had 0.45" precip and 0.2" snow...was still some patches of snow on rooftops and grass when I went out around 9 am.

I didn't measure but there was patches of snow and sleet on rooftops and some grassy surfaces...My car had accumulations on the windshield...Up by my Pocono home we got 3"...

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Colder pattern than last November. The super El Nino warmth last November and December was unprecedented.

That will put us well ahead of last year for first flakes of the season.

Nov 20, 2016

Dec 28,2015

Nov 13,2014

Nov 12,2013

Nov 7,2012

First flakes here (Smithtown) last year were October 18 (2015).  The next after that was December 28.

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10 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Nothing accumulated here in Dobbs Ferry, just mangled flakes with the rain. Interesting that Staten Island, 30 miles to the SSW, saw accumulations.

ended up with .3 here in Edison. Had thunder sleet in the middle of the night. around 1am it was a winter wonder land with huge flakes. 

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15 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

First flakes here (Smithtown) last year were October 18 (2015).  The next after that was December 28.

It looks like a few spots from BDR over to your area snuck in some early flakes on October 18th with the brief cold in a sea of warm pattern.

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This might be more suited for the CC forum, but take a look at Vize Island, Russia (located at 79deg N latitude).  The past two Novembers there have been EXTREMELY anomalous:

Mean daily Temp for Nov there is -1.3F

Nov 2014: -3F

Nov 2015: 20F

Nov 2016 (so far): 26F

This Nov and last Nov they've basically tied their all-time Nov high.  The lowest temp they've recorded so far this Nov is 14F, which is over 15F higher than their AVERAGE DAILY TEMP.  Still 10 days left in the month, but there doesn't seem to be any bitterly cold air forecasted there through next Wed.  Right now it's 30F there, which is only 3F from their all-time Nov high.

So.. what on Earth is going on?

 

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1 hour ago, nzucker said:

Nothing accumulated here in Dobbs Ferry, just mangled flakes with the rain. Interesting that Staten Island, 30 miles to the SSW, saw accumulations.

I think that was a result of the orientation of the thermal gradient aloft. If you look back at SPC Mesoanalysis 850s you'll see how it was oriented east-west.

SPC 11-20-16.png

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37 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

This might be more suited for the CC forum, but take a look at Vize Island, Russia (located at 79deg N latitude).  The past two Novembers there have been EXTREMELY anomalous:

Mean daily Temp for Nov there is -1.3F

Nov 2014: -3F

Nov 2015: 20F

Nov 2016 (so far): 26F

This Nov and last Nov they've basically tied their all-time Nov high.  The lowest temp they've recorded so far this Nov is 14F, which is over 15F higher than their AVERAGE DAILY TEMP.  Still 10 days left in the month, but there doesn't seem to be any bitterly cold air forecasted there through next Wed.  Right now it's 30F there, which is only 3F from their all-time Nov high.

So.. what on Earth is going on?

 

Record high pressure ridge extending across the Eurasian Arctic pumping tremendous Atlantic warmth north right up into the Arctic.

The pattern is also getting an assist on the Pacific side from the persistent low pressure sitting over the Bering Sea.

 

 

MW.gif

 

 

 

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