bluewave Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 70 degree warmth early in November like the models are showing for next week has occurred several times since 2000. The good news is that most of the winters went on to above normal snowfall with the exception 0f 2001-2002. Novembers reaching 70 degrees November 1-10 since 2000 at EWR or NYC and NYC/BNL seasonal snowfall 2015....32.1...35.9 2013...57.4....57.5 2009...51.4....67.8 2005...40.0...30.5 2003...42.6...60.2 2001...3.5....5.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: 70 degree warmth early in November like the models are showing for next week has occurred several times since 2000. The good news is that most of the winters went on to above normal snowfall with the exception 0f 2001-2002. Novembers reaching 70 degrees November 1-10 since 2000 at EWR or NYC and NYC/BNL seasonal snowfall 2015....32.1...35.9 2013...57.4....57.5 2009...51.4....67.8 2005...40.0...30.5 2003...42.6...60.2 2001...3.5....5.5 How many warmer and drier than normal SON (all 3 months) went on to be cold and snowy winters for the NYC metro area? If you could look that up please I'd appreciate it. I want to factor it into my winter thoughts. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 38 minutes ago, snowman19 said: How many warmer and drier than normal SON (all 3 months) went on to be cold and snowy winters for the NYC metro area? If you could look that up please I'd appreciate it. I want to factor it into my winter thoughts. Thank you Not much correlation between OCT-NOV temps in NYC and the winter temps in general but sometimes the extremes carryover into winter temperature like last winter and 76-77. But we saw last winter how even near record warmth can still produce record snow. We actually did better in snowfall last winter than 76-77 despite the big difference in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 22 minutes ago, snowman19 said: How many warmer and drier than normal SON (all 3 months) went on to be cold and snowy winters for the NYC metro area? If you could look that up please I'd appreciate it. I want to factor it into my winter thoughts. Thank you You may want to factor in a BN November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Not much correlation between OCT-NOV temps in NYC and the winter pattern. It's more about the 500 mb circulation patterns in October and sometimes November. As I alluded too yesterday, the first 5 to 7 day torch is over after that. The following 5 days are closer to N as the trough bellies under the mean ridge position and polar pacific air works into the pattern. So those 5 days are N . Now once out to day 11 the entire game begins to take shape . Days 11 to 15 are BN , as Cross polar flow begins to get involved in the pattern . So now we begin to get cold . The trough should be stuck in the east through day 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 1995 had a max of 72 in November before the change to colder...1966 hit 70 early in the month...the key is early in the month.. 1993 with 80 in mid month had a cold icy winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, uncle W said: 1995 had a max of 72 in November before the change to colder...1966 hit 70 early in the month...the key is early in the month.. 1993 with 80 in mid month had a cold icy winter... 72 on Dec 22 2013.... Then the dam broke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 20 minutes ago, PB GFI said: 72 on Dec 22 2013.... Then the dam broke. that was disgusting...I'd like to see that 72 turn out to be 27 on December 22nd with snow falling...I think the chances are good this year for a White Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 8 minutes ago, uncle W said: that was disgusting...I'd like to see that 72 turn out to be 27 on December 22nd with snow falling...I think the chances are good this year for a White Christmas... Yeh UNC, the + 30 put a whole degree on the December average that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 Average DJF winter temperature departures haven't been all that important for seasonal snowfall during the 2000's anyway. 04-05...05-06...12-13...15-16 proved that you don't need a cold winter for a snowy one. But if we want to improve your odds of a 50" or greater season, we probably need a colder winter. Though Long Island hit 50" in 2012-13 with a milder than average winter. Blocking has compensated for the lack of cold winters in those 4 instances. The only 4 dud winters since 2000-2001 were when warmth combined with lack of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 Torch is over after week 1 on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 2 hours ago, PB GFI said: You may want to factor in a BN November the top ten driest Octobers on record for NYC averages 24.5" of snowfall for the winter...five were cold...four warm and one normal...two had well below average snowfall...the snowiest year was mild...the second least snowiest was cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 12 hours ago, PB GFI said: You see a torch through the 15th ? Often models rush pattern changes. It's not like November is historically a snowy month for us. Better to delay until December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 38 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Often models rush pattern changes. It's not like November is historically a snowy month for us. Better to delay until December I don't see snow , I am just looking at the 500 . I agree models have a tendency to false start pattern changes. But I think the torch is over by day 7 , then it's N for a week and then we head BN. The guidance does suggest the trough is in the E through the end of the month , so maybe we eek some early stuff out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 17 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I don't see snow , I am just looking at the 500 . I agree models have a tendency to false start pattern changes. But I think the torch is over by day 7 , then it's N for a week and then we head BN. The guidance does suggest the trough is in the E through the end of the month , so maybe we eek some early stuff out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 28 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I don't see snow , I am just looking at the 500 . I agree models have a tendency to false start pattern changes. But I think the torch is over by day 7 , then it's N for a week and then we head BN. The guidance does suggest the trough is in the E through the end of the month , so maybe we eek some early stuff out. Looking in twitter and posts by bluewave/forky the pacific has to do a 180 for us to get cold into the US. I think we see this later then sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 17 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Where do they get their information from? All the guidance is pointing to a pattern shift mid to late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 Just now, Snow88 said: Where do they get their information from? All the guidance is pointing to a pattern shift mid to late November. Consensus model blend, you can have a trough in the east underneath a massive ridge and have temps at or above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 23 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Check the D 10 - 15 EPS then the weeklies CFS JMA and get back to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 Just now, PB GFI said: Check the D 10 - 15 EPS then the weeklies CFS JMA and get back to me. We all know how well they did last year, think the change happens but after turkey day and we finish +2 to +4 for November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 22 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looking in twitter and posts by bluewave/forky the pacific has to do a 180 for us to get cold into the US. I think we see this later then sooner. It does after day 10 . GOA retrogrades by day 10 . Trough develops underneath the pulled back height field. That's the change , N first then we could lower in the L/R as the source region changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 Just now, qg_omega said: We all know how well they did last year, think the change happens but after turkey day and we finish +2 to +4 for November If the first 5 to 7 days start off so warm then the colder anomalies may not make it up . But I like day 10 thru 25 to end up BN . The month as a whole could end up either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 10 minutes ago, qg_omega said: We all know how well they did last year, think the change happens but after turkey day and we finish +2 to +4 for November I'm trying to understand your thinking here. You just said that model consensus was the reason for that map. Yet you're tossing the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I'm trying to understand your thinking here. You just said that model consensus was the reason for that map. Yet you're tossing the models? ..... I'm not lol, but I do expect the pattern change to be delayed and even with the changes at 500 our source region is Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: ..... I'm not lol, but I do expect the pattern change to be delayed and even with the changes at 500 our source region is Pacific. I'm aware of that. It's just that the map was specifically for the 2nd half of Nov. not the month as a whole. If you're saying warm start, ending close to normal or a bit below, resulting in AN for the month as a whole. I could get on board with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: - PNA, -NAO. Good recipe for AN by mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: - PNA, -NAO. Good recipe for AN by mid month. You mean positive PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 No. Looking at mid month. Forecast for pna def less certain than nao, but looks to trend neutral to negative by mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 It's going to be a slow process beyond November 10th getting cooler temps to gradually filter in. Notice how all the cold is currently located in Eurasia. But if the EPO falls along with the -AO like the long range guidance is suggesting, it will eventually get cooler here mid to late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's going to be a slow process beyond November 10th getting cooler temps to gradually filter in. Notice how all the cold is currently located in Eurasia. But if the EPO falls along with the -AO like the long range guidance is suggesting, it will eventually get cooler here mid to late month. Yes the 5 day mean will look like that because there are a few plus 10s in it early on. BUT we are already BN on November 5 6 7 . That's the first shot but now I agree that the Colder shot looks to reload around the 11th as the source region for that changes to arctic. That NEG will get stuck in the east through months end . I would not be surprised if we are cold all the way through December. It's an early start this year and somewhere between the 10th and 15th most will recognize the pattern change/changing. The second shot is where the real reshuffling in the EP and Arctic takes place. Thankfully the torch is over after the 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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