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November 2016 Pattern Discussion


dmillz25

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nice midlevel lapse rates and TT's on the soundings especially with the LI sound enhancement in Suffolk.

700-500 lapse rate: 6.55 C/km


Total Totals Index:       50.13 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms

Sunday is definitely going to be a slap in the face. Wind will be wipping with the snow flakes 

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It looks like the cooler pattern forecast for the remainder of the month may allow NYC to avoid a top 10 warmest November.

While NYC is currently at 52.8 and +3.2, the means steadily decline for the rest of the month. With the average for the

month at 47.7, NYC would need to drop the departure below +2.7 to stay out of the top ten.

 

Top ten warmest Novembers in NYC

52.8...2015

52.7...2001

52.5...1979

52.4...1948

52.3...1975

51.9...2011, 2006, 1994, 1931

51.5...1902

51.1...2009

50.8...1999

50.4...1982,1946

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12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I don't think they ever really were expected, especially along the coast. If you see a flurry consider yourself lucky

Yesterday someone mentioned euro showed snow showers. The NAM 4k also shows that. Not sure how reliable it is.

 

also GFS

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All the models have the first flakes of the season across the area tomorrow evening as like effect streamers move through.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rloop.html

The winds are going to be strong enough to push the cumulus congestus with their snow showers and flurries from the lakes right to the shoreline tomorrow

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39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The winds are going to be strong enough to push the cumulus congestus with their snow showers and flurries from the lakes right to the shoreline tomorrow

That will put us well ahead of last year for first flakes of the season.

Dec 28,2015

Nov 13,2014

Nov 12,2013

Nov 7,2012

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