November 2016 Pattern Discussion

[dmillz25]

I thought there was going to be record highs at the end of this week

[dmillz25]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The stronger blocking than forecast toned the temps down. So we'll have to be happy with mild 60's instead of record high 70's.

Oh ok. I'll take 60s with no problem 

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

I thought there was going to be record highs at the end of this week

I still think there will be wide spread 65-70 on Friday and Saturday with some local low 70 readings on Saturday in NYC metro. Temp guidance is notoriously low ahead of a strong cold front. Every sunny day has outperformed this month, including today. The mid to lower levels will be sufficiently warm and with full sun expected it should take little ISR to warm the surface well into the 60's. Dews will be low as well, helping to fuel day time highs. In addition, all upstream locations further west are torched. So once the wind direction flips to a more westerly component late morning/very early afternoon Friday the temp will jump.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

55 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Still think there will be wide spread 65-70 on Friday and Saturday with some local low 70 readings on Saturday in NYC metro. Every sunny day has outperformed this month, including today. The mid to lower levels will be sufficiently warm and with full sun expected it should take little ISR to warm the surface well into the 60's.

You hit the nail on the head. Even today should over preform. Pac air masses tend to do this especially given full sun. 

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, jbenedet said:

I still think there will be wide spread 65-70 on Friday and Saturday with some local low 70 readings on Saturday in NYC metro. Temp guidance is notoriously low ahead of a strong cold front. Every sunny day has outperformed this month, including today. The mid to lower levels will be sufficiently warm and with full sun expected it should take little ISR to warm the surface well into the 60's. Dews will be low as well, helping to fuel day time highs. In addition, all upstream locations further west are torched. So once the wind direction flips to a more westerly component late morning/very early afternoon Friday the temp will jump.

 

6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You hit the nail on the head. Even today should over preform. Pac air masses tend to do this especially given full sun. 

 

Sounds about right that the highs will beat guidance the next few days. The Euro has more of a warmer downslope flow for Friday

but keeps flow onshore Sat ahead of the front. But if the flow verifies more S on Saturday ahead of the cold front, then it will

be warmer than Euro has. The Euro diggs the UL further south over the weekend than the GFS so its windfield is different.

[CIK62]

Check out Jeff Masters' blog where he points out Lincoln, Nebraska is headed for a +11 November with just 2 below normal days.   Not quite our +13.3 Dec./2015 but maybe just as many SD's out of whack for them.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Check out Jeff Masters' blog where he points out Lincoln, Nebraska is headed for a +11 November with just 2 below normal days.   Not quite our +13.3 Dec./2015 but maybe just as many SD's out of whack for them.

Coversly Siberia is on the opposite sides of the spectrum. Until that air (if) dislodges and goes over the pole our airmasses aren't going to cut it at the coast for snow. Our source region is pitiful 

[bluewave]

Looks like a nice leaf drop Sunday into Monday for the remaining leaves left on the trees as the low really cranks up over New England.

 

[weathermedic]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a nice leaf drop Sunday into Monday for the remaining leaves left on the trees as the low really cranks up over New England.

 

I'm thinking wind advisories will be posted area wide for Sat night into Sunday.

[uncle W]

at least half of the trees on Staten Island still have leaves on them...Some are still green but some are fire engine red...

[bluewave]

59 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

I'm thinking wind advisories will be posted area wide for Sat night into Sunday.

It will continue the dry and windy theme as northern areas were just upgraded to extreme drought status. This may be the first time a section of the region

experienced extreme drought since the early 2000's.

 

 

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
903 AM EDT THU NOV 17 2016


...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN ORANGE,
NORTHERN PUTNAM COUNTIES IN NY AND NORTHERN FAIRFIELD, NORTHERN NEW
HAVEN AND NORTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTIES IN CONNECTICUT.

...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF LONG ISLAND,
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD, SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN, SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTIES
IN CONNECTICUT. THE BRONX, RICHMOND, WESTCHESTER, SOUTHERN PUTNAM,
SOUTHERN ORANGE AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES IN NY AND ACROSS NORTHERN NJ...

SYNOPSIS...

A PERSISTENT, DRY WEATHER PATTERN THAT BEGAN THIS SPRING AND SUMMER
HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. RAINFALL DEFICITS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LAST MONTH.
RAINFALL DEFICITS SINCE JANUARY 1ST RANGE FROM TEN TO TWENTY INCHES.

ALTHOUGH RECENT RAINS HAVE HELPED TO IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, A
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE NECESSARY TO
RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS OF WATER AVAILABILITY.

THE NOVEMBER 17TH RELEASE OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWED AN
UPGRADE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. EXTREME DROUGHT IMPACTS INCLUDE MAJOR CROP
AND PASTURE LOSSES AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGE OR RESTRICTIONS.

 

[donsutherland1]

Some of the GFS ensemble members forecast that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will fall to somewhere between -5.000 and -3.000 toward the end of November. If so, that would be an encouraging indication that Winter 2016-17 could feature a lot of blocking. The possibility could also exist for above normal snowfall across the Middle Atlantic region, including the New York City area.

[JerseyWx]

I'll be interested in seeing what areas can hit 70° tomorrow, or maybe even top it.

[PB GFI]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First signs of a Northern Hemisphere pattern change showing up a day 10. The record breaking ridge which has been stuck over the Russian Arctic is finally

forecast to be replaced by a deep trough. So look for changes during the next 10 days into early December across the North Pacific to Greenland.

This may be the biggest pattern shake-up across the Northern Hemisphere since October 1st. More details to follow once we get closer to the start of December.

 

Record blocking over Russian Arctic since October 1st

 

EPS centered on November 27th finally weaken this Russian Arctic block and replace with trough

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You can see the higher heights setting up shop in the higher latitudes starting day 8 all the way through day 15 on the GEFS GEPS and the EPS.

Theno the guidance runs energy underneath and those lobes should feel the confluence of those heights and belly under that ridge .

It's a complete reversal at 500 from last December. 

 

 

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

First signs of a Northern Hemisphere pattern change showing up a day 10. The record breaking ridge which has been stuck over the Russian Arctic is finally

forecast to be replaced by a deep trough. So look for changes during the next 10 days into early December across the North Pacific to Greenland.

This may be the biggest pattern shake-up across the Northern Hemisphere since October 1st. More details to follow once we get closer to the start of December.

 

Record blocking over Russian Arctic since October 1st

 

 

EPS centered on November 27th finally weaken this Russian Arctic block and replace with trough

 

 

Loving these developments, but do you all think this leads to that coveted Siberian cold making its way over to our side of the globe, or would that require more PAC/EPO cooperation.  Either way, I guess it's possible that we snow in that pattern, as Paul pointed out.

Regardless, anything beats this boring torch pattern.  Glad to see some glimmers of hope for some excitement, although I'm hesitant as LR guidance has burned us a few times recently.

[CIK62]

CFS for the next 30 day period looked more hopeful.    About an even split between 'normal or above' and 'normal or below' days.    But area of super cold from HB seems to stop short of a full southern ride into our area around Dec. 10-13.

[donsutherland1]

A photo from this morning:

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

Yeah, that is the opposite of the pattern we experienced last December. The -AO drop showing up as we get close to the start of December makes sense given the

record -AO pattern back in October. The EPS finally weakens the fire hose PAC jet and makes the handoff to more of a STJ undercutting the block.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not saying another 95-96 winter(very unlikely) on tap but, similar occurrence happened then with the pac jet undercutting ak ridge. Systems would run from pac.nw southeastward and under nao block and become miller b/miller a hybrid. Many don't remember the quick warmups and even flooding between cold and snow storms.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

Not saying another 95-96 winter(very unlikely) on tap but, similar occurrence happened then with the pac jet undercutting ak ridge. Systems would run from pac.nw southeastward and under nao block and become miller b/miller a hybrid. Many don't remember the quick warmups and even flooding between cold and snow storms.

That winter was not all that cold overall after December 22-25.  I think December averaged -4 here but it was mostly near normal thereafter although maybe March was technically well below.  The coldest anomalies that winter were mainly in the traditional La Niña cold spots in the Plains and Midwest 

[pazzo83]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Not saying another 95-96 winter(very unlikely) on tap but, similar occurrence happened then with the pac jet undercutting ak ridge. Systems would run from pac.nw southeastward and under nao block and become miller b/miller a hybrid. Many don't remember the quick warmups and even flooding between cold and snow storms.

In VA we went from about 24" of snow (it had melted down from 36" in the couple weeks after the Blizzard) to nothing in about 12 hours in '96 with temps pushing into the 60s.  It wasn't pretty.

[PB GFI]

1 hour ago, pazzo83 said:

In VA we went from about 24" of snow (it had melted down from 36" in the couple weeks after the Blizzard) to nothing in about 12 hours in '96 with temps pushing into the 60s.  It wasn't pretty.

 

Better to have loved no ? 

[pazzo83]

30 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Better to have loved no ? 

That whole winter was f*cking nuts.

[snowman19]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The first piece of the pattern change showing up in the 6-10 day period is the height falls over the Russian Arctic and rises in the AO region of Canada and Greenland.

By itself this won't do much for building much cold air over North America. But height rises in early December over NW North America and Alaska in the western PNA

and EPO regions would start to get North America colder as December progresses. So that second piece of the puzzle will be the one to watch for if you want to

see cold building over North America.

Until there is a real big change in the Pacific major cold is not happening even if the AO and NAO both go negative that does you no good with zonal and semizonal flow off the Pacific flooding Canada with maritime polar air

[snowman19]

Just now, bluewave said:

While I don't like to go past the day 6-10 means, both the EPS and GEFS show slow improvement on the Pacific side beginning 11-15  then compared to what we have seen.

 

The EPS and GEFS have shown improvement in the Pacific several times this fall only to completely back off as we get closer. 

[dmillz25]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The EPS and GEFS have shown improvement in the Pacific several times this fall only to completely back off as we get closer. 

Eventually it'll happen. In December i would take a -ao/-nao because we would get cold from SE Canada and it would be could cold enough even with a crappy pacific. And it would help even if its transient( pacific speaking)

[packbacker]

Pains me to agree with snowman....but the persisent warmth (bad pac) is going to be tough to shake off.  But, for the most part, several factors are tilting towards a BN Dec.  Just need more patience.  

[EastonSN+]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Until there is a real big change in the Pacific major cold is not happening even if the AO and NAO both go negative that does you no good with zonal and semizonal flow off the Pacific flooding Canada with maritime polar air

Hopefully with blocking we can still get a couple of thread the needle events even though the air will not be frigid

[EastonSN+]

19 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some of the GFS ensemble members forecast that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will fall to somewhere between -5.000 and -3.000 toward the end of November. If so, that would be an encouraging indication that Winter 2016-17 could feature a lot of blocking. The possibility could also exist for above normal snowfall across the Middle Atlantic region, including the New York City area.

Thanks Don. I am very hopeful despite the unfavorable pacific. Didnt 92 93 have above average snow despite an unfavorable pac?

[Allsnow]

First flakes Sunday? 

[SnowGoose69]

Looks like maybe the first wet Thanksgiving in I cannot even remember how long.  Maybe early to mid 2000s.