uncle W Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: I would be willing to bet we see another December through March +10 or greater monthly departure within the next 5 years. But I have no idea which one of those months will be the one when +10 departure occurs. 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: I would be willing to bet we see another December through March +10 or greater monthly departure within the next 5 years. But I have no idea which one of those months will be the one when +10 departure occurs. sorry to say I agree with you...the mid to late 1940's had some well above normal months...March 45 and 46...October 47 and 49...March 45 was the warmest winter month if you include March...Last December is on its own level... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 10 hours ago, snowman19 said: Yea that's a big part of it. Go to the NOAA site and look at the soil moisture stats for our region. Bone dry is an understatement NYC reservoirs are really starting to take a hit due to the long-term dry pattern, with many sitting at 30-40% of capacity. We've seen about half of average precipitation in September and October, and nothing this November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 32 now...the night with no freeze warning, upton forecast low here is still 35...yeesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 30 minutes ago, psv88 said: 32 now...the night with no freeze warning, upton forecast low here is still 35...yeesh Calm winds tonight. Upper 20s here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 Temp made it down to freezing here, currently 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 A number of locations around the region are down a very impressive more than -10 inches of precipitation for the YTD. POU...-15.07 BDL...-13.08 BDR...-5.55 LGA...-7.99 NYC..-9.55 JFK...-7.85 ISP...-11.49 EWR...-11.00 TTN...-11.18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 Quite a bit of frost along the LIE from eastern Nassau through central Suffolk this morning, it's actually my first time seeing frost at all this season. No frost near me, it remained in the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 13, 2016 Author Share Posted November 13, 2016 Low of 41 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 Weak sauce cold shot didn't even make it to 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 3 hours ago, bluewave said: A number of locations around the region are down a very impressive more than -10 inches of precipitation for the YTD. POU...-15.07 BDL...-13.08 BDR...-5.55 LGA...-7.99 NYC..-9.55 JFK...-7.85 ISP...-11.49 EWR...-11.00 TTN...-11.18 And boy is it obvious up here. It's so dry in the woods it's scary. The fire danger has got to be through the roof right now. It's burning down south and if we don't start getting some rain or snow soon we're going to be dealing with it up here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 28 minutes ago, gravitylover said: And boy is it obvious up here. It's so dry in the woods it's scary. The fire danger has got to be through the roof right now. It's burning down south and if we don't start getting some rain or snow soon we're going to be dealing with it up here too. POU is on track for a top 5 driest year on record unless they really get some heavy precip in December. 2016 so far...25.82 Top 5 driest years POU: 1964....24.52 2001....27.52 1965....27.71 2015....29.82 1966...31.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 13, 2016 Author Share Posted November 13, 2016 Looks like models are showing a -EPO albeit temporary and -NAO around the 20th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 Gefs has the AO crashing GFS has some snow by the end of this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 13, 2016 Author Share Posted November 13, 2016 Lock in 12z gfs after next weekend please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 The 12z GFS ensembles days 8 ( 20th ) - 16 are showing a turn away from the torch pattern. I think once this gets inside the 6 - 10 you will see more bite . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 1 hour ago, PB GFI said: The 12z GFS ensembles days 8 ( 20th ) - 16 are showing a turn away from the torch pattern. I think once this gets inside the 6 - 10 you will see more bite . People are reluctant to believe the long range GFS because it has done this in the past only to backoff once it gets inside of 10 days. Also -AO doesn't automatically mean cold. The new JMA which was posted in the La Niña thread is an example of why it's not. Hostile Pacific pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 13, 2016 Author Share Posted November 13, 2016 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: People are reluctant to believe the long range GFS because it has done this in the past only to backoff once it gets inside of 10 days. Also -AO doesn't automatically mean cold. The new JMA which was posted in the La Niña thread is an example of why it's not. Hostile Pacific pattern Gefs also showing a -epo as well albeit temporary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 Day 10 EPS isn't buying the PAC Jet slowdown that the GEFS has. Pretty much continues with the seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Day 10 EPS isn't buying the PAC Jet slowdown that the GEFS has. Pretty much continues with the seasonal trend. If I was a betting man I would go with the EPS, but its possible the GEFS could wind up being correct. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Day 10 EPS isn't buying the PAC Jet slowdown that the GEFS has. Pretty much continues with the seasonal trend. Look at the agreement in the Arctic and Atlantic. It's Just a matter of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 17 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Look at the agreement in the Arctic and Atlantic. It's Just a matter of time We want to see the PAC Jet weaken enough to allow more ridging near Alaska. December 2010 and 2012 both had great -AO patterns. The deciding factor between the two was that 2010 had a stronger -AO/-NAO and more blocking near Alaska. So it will be interesting to see what the guidance starts to look like after November 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 On 11/12/2016 at 0:28 PM, Brian5671 said: 1998-99 anolog would be a disaster..... It's also a La Nina after a super El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 On 11/12/2016 at 4:52 PM, bluewave said: I would be willing to bet we see another December through March +10 or greater monthly departure within the next 5 years. But I have no idea which one of those months will be the one when +10 departure occurs. It could start becoming more common and may even happen in the summer which would be very interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 52 minutes ago, bluewave said: We want to see the PAC Jet weaken enough to allow more ridging near Alaska. December 2010 and 2012 both had great -AO patterns. The deciding factor between the two was that 2010 had a stronger -AO/-NAO and more blocking near Alaska. So it will be interesting to see what the guidance starts to look like after November 20th. This! We have seen that a hostile PAC can absolutely moot a favorable Atlantic. I did not live in the Tri-State for the 2012-13 winter though. Backloaded? Looks like total NYC snowfall was near normal, but how was that distributed? And PB, do you mean to say that, in time, a favorable ATL side delivers the goods for us regardless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 49 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: It's also a La Nina after a super El Nino This year way more resembles 83-84 though. 98-99 was a very strong La Nina relative to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 4 hours ago, Eduardo said: No, bad PAC s are hard to overcome but , If you can get the PAC to settle down a bit , the Atlantic side looks OK, for now it would allow systems to get forced underneath. I was just mentioning both ensembles look similar in the Arctic and over Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Be careful using 83-84 as an analog guys. Remember that we had the El Chichon volcano eruption back then still wreaking havoc with the world's weather from all the aerosols it pumped into the upper atmosphere. It was one of the biggest weather altering volcanic eruptions of all time which gives real pause to its usefulness as an analog. It messed up the weather for years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 A few things of note here , It's only November 12 and already I am reading , winter is over be careful this is not last year . There is a lot of emphasis on those seasonal models. Caution, The Euro November winter forecast in 2013 and again in 2014 were warm and it did not end up that way. Late last year the Jamstec was BN in the east , that too failed . I should know , I posted on those maps ad nauseum over the years. I dont believe this is the ever ending blow torch that some here do . The winters over posts are way to premature . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: This year way more resembles 83-84 though. 98-99 was a very strong La Nina relative to this. I would agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 7 hours ago, PB GFI said: A few things of note here , It's only November 12 and already I am reading , winter is over be careful this is not last year . There is a lot of emphasis on those seasonal models. Caution, The Euro November winter forecast in 2013 and again in 2014 were warm and it did not end up that way. Late last year the Jamstec was BN in the east , that too failed . I should know , I posted on those maps ad nauseum over the years. I dont believe this is the ever ending blow torch that some here do . The winters over posts are way to premature . Yeah, people have to realize how erratic these seasonal models are including the Euro. We have seen how the EPS beyond day 10 is often just as bad as the other guidance. The key to the pattern evolution Nov 20-Dec 10 is getting the Pac Jet to slow enough for more ridging near Alaska. I don't think the models will have a handle on this until we start getting past November 20th. Models want to split or shift the polar vortex in Asia over the next 10 days. So I won't have much confidence in future forecast until we see what that does to the pattern going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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