WEATHERBUFF Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 6 hours ago, PB GFI said: Meh, fast PAC jet is just lights out . It becomes the bully. We would need some real anomalous help on the Atlantic side just to be in the game , let alone run it . I walked away from the November flip a few days ago . Even with the flip I thought it wouldn't erase the front , now I am looking forward to tranquil fall temps . I'm not punting winter at all . Just the calls for an early start were premature. It is starting to look like those who called for a colder second half may be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 33 minutes ago, PB GFI said: If a "current " pattern looks bad that doesn't mean that the guidance will not pick up an evolution in one region that forces a reaction in another and forecasts a change in the different latitudes . Chris and I spoke last year about the weeklies on several occasions on how we just ignored them after week 3. They are brutal and are run off that days run of the ensembles and are just a crap shoot. There are times where the guidance in the 10 to 15 picks up changes and it's right. However so far the forcing in the Pacific is one piece that is overwhelming the pattern and this may take some time . We seem to forget that this month is running close to average for November over the last 10 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 In other news, the record PAC jet helped pump the PNA ridge near record levels for the month of November. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml The 2 highest values that I was able to find since 1950 were in Nov 56 and 76. http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii 1956 11 25 1.845 1976 11 12 1.848 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 I do not see how western Suffolk (under freeze warning) comes anywhere close to below 32 for several with the winds up. Especially with CAA. The coastal temps including the city shouldn't drop below the high 30s tonight. The source air is not cold at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 It's pretty cold out this way. Winds flipped around 3:00 while I was out mowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 temp is dropping like a rock. down to 51f. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 6 hours ago, Allsnow said: You called 2011-2012 right before December because of the GOA low. Any similarities to this winter? Look at Siberia right now. This is unbelievable. A 1070mb Siberian High and -60F below normal temps? Yea there's a positive feedback loop over that region that isn't changing anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 12, 2016 Author Share Posted November 12, 2016 Down to 34 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 7 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Down to 34 here 37s across the board from NYC to westhampton. Winds kept temps up on the island and the area uniform. I don't like to put down upton as I respect them but I nailed the forecast and they blew it with the freeze warning for western Suffolk. It wasn't even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 The EPS looks like hot garbage until further notice. No relief from that Pac jet. I have no problem with that at this point, but if we're looking at this as we're getting into Dec. I might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Next weekend looks pretty warm. We could break some record highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 CFS Weeklies still burning a hole in our pocket till start of winter. Dry begets dry too. Next 7 are indicated at +5 by the GFSx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if the Pac Jet runs the table right through December and we get our 6th above normal temperature December in a row which began in 2011. The only one of those years that didn't flip snowier and colder later on than December was 2011-2012. So only 1 out of the past 5 winters had a pattern where the December pattern locked in for the whole winter. It's going to be interesting for sure. It's a tough year to get a feel for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: 37s across the board from NYC to westhampton. Winds kept temps up on the island and the area uniform. I don't like to put down upton as I respect them but I nailed the forecast and they blew it with the freeze warning for western Suffolk. It wasn't even close I was surprised to see the freeze warning up too. Got a little nervous because I have the lawn sprinklers still out and didn't want them to freeze. Stepped outside at 11 and thought the same as you- too windy. I ened up just switching the timers to make them all go ON during the coldest time of the night/morning. Figured worst case we would get an hour of 32 and moving water isn't gonna freeze. Ended up a low of 34 for that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Next weekend looks pretty warm. We could break some record highs. The models do not have a clue beyond a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Eric Webb just pointed this out on twitter but look at November 1998 compared to this November. Carbon copy, literally identical, blowtorch North America and North Pole, insanely cold Siberia: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Over the last 15 years December has averaged over 2 degrees above the 1981-2010 normal, even more than November! It should be no surprise to anyone that these months are above the so-called average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 I wonder if we will follow last years pattern where no real cold shows up until after the New Year. Despite that, I don't think we'll see the incredible warmth this December like we did in 2015. Never really know though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 1998-99 anolog would be a disaster..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: Next weekend looks pretty warm. We could break some record highs. betting some areas will finish November +5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: betting some areas will finish November +5 Got to agree, may be close to it. I thought November would be warmer and drier than normal but not by this much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Got to agree, may be close to it. I thought November would be warmer and drier than normal but not by this much Dry ground doing the dirty work too....some days have beaten guidance for high temps. Around here, there's only .25 or so precip and we're close to halfway through the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Dry ground doing the dirty work too....some days have beaten guidance for high temps. Around here, there's only .25 or so precip and we're close to halfway through the month Or the lack of any cold, it's a warm pattern not just for us but the whole country... One of the warmest on record for the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Dry ground doing the dirty work too....some days have beaten guidance for high temps. Around here, there's only .25 or so precip and we're close to halfway through the month Yea that's a big part of it. Go to the NOAA site and look at the soil moisture stats for our region. Bone dry is an understatement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 23 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I do not see how western Suffolk (under freeze warning) comes anywhere close to below 32 for several with the winds up. Especially with CAA. The coastal temps including the city shouldn't drop below the high 30s tonight. The source air is not cold at all Yup. Only down to 36 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Dry ground doing the dirty work too....some days have beaten guidance for high temps. Around here, there's only .25 or so precip and we're close to halfway through the month 0.00 for the month so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 4 hours ago, JerseyWx said: I wonder if we will follow last years pattern where no real cold shows up until after the New Year. Despite that, I don't think we'll see the incredible warmth this December like we did in 2015. Never really know though. Thats a pretty safe bet no matter what. Dec 2015 may be a once in a lifetime event in terms of temp anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 8 minutes ago, dWave said: Thats a pretty safe bet no matter what. Dec 2015 may be a once in a lifetime event in terms of temp anomalies. I would be willing to bet we see another December through March +10 or greater monthly departure within the next 5 years. But I have no idea which one of those months will be the one when +10 departure occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: I would be willing to bet we see another December through March +10 or greater monthly departure within the next 5 years. But I have no idea which one of those months will be the one when +10 departure occurs. Actually March of 2012 was really anomalous as far as extreme warmth too. I remember the city hitting 90 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Actually March of 2012 was really anomalous as far as extreme warmth too. I remember the city hitting 90 degrees We came very close in March 2012 to +10 when NYC went +8.5. January 2006 was also very close coming in at +8.8 in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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