dmillz25 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 The month is set to start out AN but according to models, blocking should take hold by mid month and hopefully promote cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Coastal storm during the 1st week of November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 58 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Coastal storm during the 1st week of November? Thats the period i am watching as well. Most globals such as the CMC, EURO and GFS have it in some form or another. Definitely a time period worth watching on the EC as a possible storm that could be brewing. LOTS will change before then thats for sure. I really want to see if this blocking has the legs to hang around for the winter or at least make its presence known often. Dont want anoverwhelming -NAO though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Pv visit by mid month like we had back in 2013? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 the ak vortex has to move west for cold air to return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Pv visit by mid month like we had back in 2013? Wasn't that 2014, or am I thinking of another cold shot? Regardless, November 2014 had some very cold days, and not to mention the Pre-Thanksgiving snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 42 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the ak vortex has to move west for cold air to return All the cold is trapped on the other side of the globe under the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 1 hour ago, JerseyWx said: Wasn't that 2014, or am I thinking of another cold shot? Regardless, November 2014 had some very cold days, and not to mention the Pre-Thanksgiving snowstorm. It was the year Buffalo got all lake effect. I'm not sure if it was 13 or 14. The cold shot was legit and a sign of things to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 26, 2016 Author Share Posted October 26, 2016 That was 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 32 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It was the year Buffalo got all lake effect. I'm not sure if it was 13 or 14. The cold shot was legit and a sign of things to come I remember that, lots of cold and snow in the east that November. The February to come would be very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 10 hours ago, JerseyWx said: I remember that, lots of cold and snow in the east that November. The February to come would be very impressive. Yeah that was a impressive year. We also had a snow event right before thanksgiving that year. During the parade flurries where coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Stormy start to November as the East Coast trough finally makes a long awaited return. Yeh man as trough near AK retrogrades it helps pull the ridge N and W and the trough will actually come right through the ridge position. So you can the trough just begin to just appear to belly under in the SE in the means. I think the trough will get stuck under the blocking in the higher latitudes for at least 10 days . The weeklies and CFS keep it there week 3 and 4 but I don't think the weeklies are useful past week 3 . I do believe those colder anomalies that have been stuck in Asia during October will begin to show up here between days 10 thru 25 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Some of the guidance and maybe a few hints which are pointing to the trough settling in the east week 3 and 4 . JMA CFS Here are the SSTs in the NP NOV 2014 Current SST in NP Very similar in the NP and Atlantic . Week 3 and 4 NOV 2014 Once past D 10 the EPS develops the trough in the East and it sits here week 3 on the weeklies . I can`t post them . But here is DAY 10 and it`s start , GFS 5 DAY MEAN @ 500 The 2 M anomalies are not cold yet GEFS/EPS are close to N at 0z . Here is the DAY 10 EPS 850 anomalies , they are BN . If you stick a trough in the E , build those heights in Western Canada and pull that NEG back S of ALASKA a deeper trough should get reflected as we get closer . New EPS DAY 10 850 anomalies , not too shabby . We will see how this plays out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Just now, bluewave said: You can see how the new JMA week 3-4 went right to the Euro weeklies. Yep and the CFS as well , they all see it now . And , Nice AO post ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 21 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Yep and the CFS as well , they all see it now . And , Nice AO post ! Good post above. The Euro monthly update around November 8th will probably be the most anticipated considering what it showed for December early in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Would be nice to see this pv split in December to have a nice cold January. It does leave the door open for perhaps a cold/snowy December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 8 hours ago, bluewave said: Good post above. The Euro monthly update around November 8th will probably be the most anticipated considering what it showed for December early in October. EPS day 10 thru 15 on board with above as are the new weeklies for week 3 and 4 . Nice to see the JMA CFS and Weeklies lining this up . A pattern of a -EPO -AO + PNA -NAO is being seen by all , days 10 thru 25. We will see if something storm wise if anything comes of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Mid NOV pattern flip on track: strong ECMWF weekly signal here, +PNA/-NAO and an eastern trough weeks 3/4 https://t.co/Lc6bWsYTnF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 The high latitude Arctic is on fire. I think we may be in the glory years for a while longer though as all the cold air is displaced into the mid latitudes and even 20 above normal at the pole is still plenty cold. Eventually things may just be so warm that we can no longer pull off snow at the coast (20 plus years from now) today is a great example of what's possible currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 13 hours ago, PB GFI said: EPS day 10 thru 15 on board with above as are the new weeklies for week 3 and 4 . Nice to see the JMA CFS and Weeklies lining this up . A pattern of a -EPO -AO + PNA -NAO is being seen by all , days 10 thru 25. We will see if something storm wise if anything comes of it. Eurasia will be the place to be for cold and snow in early November as all the NH cold is presently bottled up over there. We'll see how much cold can filter in here mid to late November as all the long range guidance is going with a -EPO/-AO Eastern Trough pattern at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 52 minutes ago, bluewave said: Eurasia will be the place to be for cold and snow in early November as all the NH cold is presently bottled up over there. We'll see how much cold can filter in here mid to late November as all the long range guidance is going with a -EPO/-AO Eastern Trough pattern at that time. Yeh , the entire month of October has been brutal there. By Day 10 the GOA vortex is already pulling that height field west . Troughiness begins to develop on day 10 in the East . Day 10 850 anomalies are only slightly + but they get colder Days 11 thru 15 . Our departures will be slightly below normal D 10 thru 15 as this is polar pacific air and not low level directly discharged arctic air . However if you can lock the trough underneath hight latitude blocking it's a favorable BN pattern with a trough at 500 that could put a few points on the board early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 1 hour ago, PB GFI said: Yeh , the entire month of October has been brutal there. By Day 10 the GOA vortex is already pulling that height field west . Troughiness begins to develop on day 10 in the East . Day 10 850 anomalies are only slightly + but they get colder Days 11 thru 15 . Our departures will be slightly below normal D 10 thru 15 as this is polar pacific air and not low level directly discharged arctic air . However if you can lock the trough underneath hight latitude blocking it's a favorable BN pattern with a trough at 500 that could put a few points on the board early. BINGO! This is being hyped by some on twitter as a major arctic outbreak, WRONG!!! Like you said, if correct that's polar air not arctic air. Our source region, Canada, will be way above normal and it will take time to get cold as all the cold is on the other side of the pole to start November. It cools down yea but we certainly aren't going into an icebox like some are wishcasting on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 35 minutes ago, snowman19 said: BINGO! This is being hyped by some on twitter as a major arctic outbreak, WRONG!!! Like you said, if correct that's polar air not arctic air. Our source region, Canada, will be way above normal and it will take time to get cold as all the cold is on the other side of the pole to start November. It cools down yea but we certainly aren't going into an icebox like some are wishcasting on twitter Yes that is true , the first reshuffling at 500 is not a dive into the abyss but it is probably BN . We will have to wait and see what's beyond day 10 thru 20 because it may just be a matter of time before those higher heights deepen in the upper latitudes pull back W which could allow the trough to really deepen in the E. Once you change the source region that low level cold air will sink to the base of the trough . And being that the trough could get stuck under all that blocking here in the E, it would be the last piece needed . I am on board for a day 10 thru 20 mean trough in the east and blocking over the top , after that we will have to see what it evolved into. BTW I do see a 4 week period of -3 I'm just not sure if it's the entire month of December or its week 4 of November into week 3 of December. Timing not nailed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Yes that is true , the first reshuffling at 500 is not a dive into the abyss but it is probably BN . We will have to wait and see what's beyond day 10 thru 20 because it may just be a matter of time before those higher heights deepen in the upper latitudes and pull back it could allow the trough to really deepen. Once you change the source region that low level cold air will sink to the base of the trough . And being that the trough could get stuck under all that blocking here in the E, it would be the last piece needed . I am on board for a day 10 thru 20 mean trough in the east and blocking over the top , after that we will have to see what it evolved into. BTW I do see a 4 week period of -3 I'm just not sure if it's the entire month of December or its week 4 of November into week 3 of December. Timing not nailed down. Canada will need A LOT of work before we see true unmodified arctic air in place up there. Cross polar flow will have to get established and keep going for awhilw before it gets real cold. There are going to be insanely warm departures for Canada standards the first 2 weeks of November due to all the Pacific maritime air pouring in right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 I know the JMA is on board with that and also the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Canada will need A LOT of work before we see true unmodified arctic air in place up there. Cross polar flow will have to get established and keep going for a while before it gets real cold. There are going to be insanely warm departures for Canada standards the first 2 weeks of November due to all the Pacific maritime air pouring in right now That may need a little less than a lot , You need to look at originating flow . When you pull the height field far enough W the ridge explodes and AN anomalies show up in Central and W Canada ( but that`s BN here ) . It`s the eastern side of that ridge that you can directly discharge air right into the GL and NE . 0C in W and C CANADA is well AN there , but its BN here for early Nov . Just because the see + anomalies does not mean " Canada needs a lot of work " . Day 11 -15 . Needs just a little work it`s over the pole , that`s the bottleneck the coldest air is being discharged into Asia , we need to redirect that flow in order to go W BN. As is , the models still BN in the L/R but it is not the deep freeze . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, PB GFI said: That may need a little less than a lot , You need to look at originating flow . When you pull the height field far enough W the ridge explodes and AN anomalies show up in Central and W Canada ( but that`s BN here ) . It`s the eastern side of that ridge that you can directly discharge air right into the GL and NE . 0 in W and C CANADA is well AN there , but its well BN here . Just because the see + anomalies does not mean " Canada needs a lot of work " . Day 11 -15 . Needs just a little work , Historic torch for Canada during the first two weeks of November at the very least. Looks like Dec 15 for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Looks like a torch until mid month at best. Warm Octobers and Novembers often mean warm winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Looks like a torch until mid month at best. Warm Octobers and Novembers often mean warm winters You see a torch through the 15th ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 The guidance is clear the torch is over after week 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.