yoda Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Interesting Day 5-6 on 12z EURO... flakes maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Interesting Day 5-6 on 12z EURO... flakes maybe? you should meander over to the obs/disc thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Euro through 6 days, puts down an inch into DC and Baltimore with 3 -7 north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Where do I sign? Same here. Not sure how it is throwing out those type numbers though. Temps are marginal at best on the surface with mid to upper 30's throughout the region. The 850's are not much better where it stays north and west of the cities for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Same here. Not sure how it is throwing out those type numbers though. Temps are marginal at best on the surface with mid to upper 30's throughout the region. The 850's are not much better where it stays north and west of the cities for the most part. actually -- 850s are plenty cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Same here. Not sure how it is throwing out those type numbers though. Temps are marginal at best on the surface with mid to upper 30's throughout the region. The 850's are not much better where it stays north and west of the cities for the most part. 850s on the eps have a favorable look from what I've seen, but the surface could be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Just now, mappy said: actually -- 850s are plenty cold enough Well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 4 minutes ago, mappy said: actually -- 850s are plenty cold enough 4 minutes ago, BTRWx said: 850s on the eps have a favorable look from what I've seen, but the surface could be different. You both are right. They are plenty cold. Was looking at the wrong map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 If the main Low doesn't produce east of the Apps, you never know how any lake effect streamers would develop at this range. The GFS has hinted at some activity, but nwp science is not as reliable for such activity at this range. eta: Impressive air mass for this time of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 48 minutes ago, mappy said: actually -- 850s are plenty cold enough The ol' knuckle sandwich... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2016 Author Share Posted November 16, 2016 Latest gfs members sure like the Thanksgiving Thur through Sun time frame for stormy weather. Not saying snow necessarily but stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2016 Author Share Posted November 16, 2016 GFS continues to tease in the period from Thanksgiving onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS continues to tease in the period from Thanksgiving onward. I'll take that system at 336 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 #ItsHappening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 2 hours ago, PaEasternWX said: #ItsHappening 50/50 and west-based -NAO and I'm in...even in super-early December. Something to dust the Christmas lights, if only for a few hours, would be awesome. Just get it in here before the 4th, or I'll miss it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 1 minute ago, mattie g said: 50/50 and west-based -NAO and I'm in...even in super-early December. Something to dust the Christmas lights, if only for a few hours, would be awesome. Just get it in here before the 4th, or I'll miss it... that's perfect! we need it to happen while you are set to be away again. then you can pull some strings and come back in time for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 The big question is, will the current NAO forecast bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 1 hour ago, PaEasternWX said: The big question is, will the current NAO forecast bust? I wouldn't trust any -NAO forecast right now. Models have been significantly over estimating blocking in the North Atlantic for months. Particularly the GFS. Here is the temperature bias of the last several GFS run at hour 168. Off the charts too warm with the -NAO and too cold over us. With the current state of the EPAC, a -NAO is our only cold delivery mechanism so I'm not getting too excited about day 11-15 cold prospects. Yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 On October 27, 2016 at 9:52 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: At some point prior to the first of December, I expect we will see our first real cold front sweep through, perhaps some flurries or snow showers as well as the first upslope snow event for the mountains to our west. I think that will lay the foundation for December by establishing some meaningful cold air, cold(er) ground, etc. Seems that this scenario is unfolding. I doubt we see much of anything outside of scattered flurries over the next ten days but I do think it's possible that at the end of that stretch we find ourselves in an environment much more conducive to snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Seems that this scenario is unfolding. I doubt we see much of anything outside of scattered flurries over the next ten days but I do think it's possible that at the end of that stretch we find ourselves in an environment much more conducive to snow events. November is unfolding like a typical late fall season as you describe. I'm not as excited about late November/early December. The PAC is still somewhat hostile and I'm not confident in the forecast magnitude of the -NAO. Canada is on fire door to door because of the PAC/QBO....but we should be cooler than average as opposed to wearing shorts by the end of the month which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Sounds reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 17 hours ago, mappy said: that's perfect! we need it to happen while you are set to be away again. then you can pull some strings and come back in time for it. It's vacation (which I haven't had since March), so I'm willing any snow to happen before the 4th or after the 12th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 hour ago, mattie g said: It's vacation (which I haven't had since March), so I'm willing any snow to happen before the 4th or after the 12th! You just know that snow during that window is now a virtual lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You just know that snow during that window is now a virtual lock. I'm resigned to it. Thank me later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 we will! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 ao tanking and climo improving first 10 days of december worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Weeklies look decent. Week 3 progresses from a trough west/ridge east to a persistent trough east/-epo/+pna config through the end of the run. General -ao/nao idea too. After a warmish week 3, h5 would imply below normal for the rest of Dec into early Jan and a favorable look for snow chances in the MA. Would take the run as reality in a heartbeat but it will remain fantasy for at least several weeks...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies look decent. Week 3 progresses from a trough west/ridge east to a persistent trough east/-epo/+pna config through the end of the run. General -ao/nao idea too. After a warmish week 3, h5 would imply below normal for the rest of Dec into early Jan and a favorable look for snow chances in the MA. Would take the run as reality in a heartbeat but it will remain fantasy for at least several weeks...lol I believe the Japanese model shows the same evolution Bob. Also, the forecast drop by some ensemble members regarding the AO is really crazy. I saw as low as - 5. Plus ,the GFS zonal winds forecast are aggressive with a wind reversal in early December . In addition, I see mention in the NYC thread of the beginning of a major pattern change over the Northern Hemisphere by day 10, with changes over Siberia . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 25 minutes ago, frd said: I believe the Japanese model shows the same evolution Bob. Also, the forecast drop by some ensemble members regarding the AO is really crazy. I saw as low as - 5. Plus ,the GFS zonal winds forecast are aggressive with a wind reversal in early December . In addition, I see mention in the NYC thread of the beginning of a major pattern change over the Northern Hemisphere by day 10, with changes over Siberia . Things look ecouraging in general but one thing that sticks in my mind is the neg ao/nao was first pegged for mid month. Delayed but not denied seems to be on the table. The shift in the pac will probably be delayed too. The -epo is probably the most ecouraging part of the run. NA has just been overrun with pac air. December snow climo around here needs quite a bit to go right. We don't need cross polar flow or anything that extreme. But we do need a good cold source that can survive moderation. Right now we're starting to see what could potentionally be a shift in the pac jet that will finally give Canada a chance to build some good cold hp's. All guidance is looking active and stormy across much of the US towards the end of the monto and beyond. Thats a good sign. Storms undercutting a block is a pretty traditional way to get snow in the east. I hope guidance two weeks down the road hangs on and starts giving us at least some good chances in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Things look ecouraging in general but one thing that sticks in my mind is the neg ao/nao was first pegged for mid month. Delayed but not denied seems to be on the table. The shift in the pac will probably be delayed too. The -epo is probably the most ecouraging part of the run. NA has just been overrun with pac air. December snow climo around here needs quite a bit to go right. We don't need cross polar flow or anything that extreme. But we do need a good cold source that can survive moderation. Right now we're starting to see what could potentionally be a shift in the pac jet that will finally give Canada a chance to build some good cold hp's. All guidance is looking active and stormy across much of the US towards the end of the monto and beyond. Thats a good sign. Storms undercutting a block is a pretty traditional way to get snow in the east. I hope guidance two weeks down the road hangs on and starts giving us at least some good chances in Dec. Thanks Bob, I enjoy your thoughts as always and your Weatherbell access for the winter season was a god move :-) Speaking of the - EPO, I believe there may be a relationship between a - EPO and the - NAO. As you know the temperature impact here from a - AO grows more and more likely as we head towards late November and early December. Maybe this Christmas time i will not be outside in shorts tossing the Frisbee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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