Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Mitch, I just like it when the ens look the same late in the runs. Well, I like it when it looks good anyways. GEFS was definitely first to jump on the -NAO idea. EPS shows more pac jet influence so temps are warmer and pattern isn't as sweet. But every run improves just a little and the gefs is steadfast right now. Sure would be a change if we start off Dec in a winter type pattern. 2013 was ok but it's pretty much been 6 years since we had a December where it felt like winter most of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Mitch, I just like it when the ens look the same late in the runs. Well, I like it when it looks good anyways. GEFS was definitely first to jump on the -NAO idea. EPS shows more pac jet influence so temps are warmer and pattern isn't as sweet. But every run improves just a little and the gefs is steadfast right now. Sure would be a change if we start off Dec in a winter type pattern. 2013 was ok but it's pretty much been 6 years since we had a December where it felt like winter most of the month. Meh, 7 years since a decent December. I don't consider 12/10 anything other than a train wreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 51 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Meh, 7 years since a decent December. I don't consider 12/10 anything other than a train wreck. 2010 just missed and it was cold so by dc standards it was a very wintry month. Let's not write Nov off yet....heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 2010 just missed and it was cold so by dc standards it was a very wintry month. Let's not write Nov off yet....heh The Op GFS is so fun. Just nuts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: The Op GFS is so fun. Just nuts.... Weeklies look pretty sweet. Especially mid Dec. Aleutian low, -epo/+pna/-nao/-ao. Lol. Nina? What nina? Looks like a nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 2010 just missed and it was cold so by dc standards it was a very wintry month. Let's not write Nov off yet....heh That should bring JI out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies look pretty sweet. Especially mid Dec. Aleutian low, -epo/+pna/-nao/-ao. Lol. Nina? What nina? Looks like a nino. Was just looking at the new weeklies. UK paints essentially a neutral enso with +PDO for back half of winter. Hopefully this bloody strat helps this winter. Really thought we would have a solid Nina this winter but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 2010 just missed and it was cold so by dc standards it was a very wintry month. Let's not write Nov off yet....heh Temps are marginal and it would seem to rain before that. I guess rates might overcome it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 14, 2016 Author Share Posted November 14, 2016 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 2010 just missed and it was cold so by dc standards it was a very wintry month. Let's not write Nov off yet....heh Sexy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Bob, we can't buy this...or can we. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: Bob, we can't buy this...or can we. The GEFS hasn't budged in like 6 runs in a row. With the 18z being the best of the crop so far. I'm not biting for a while but definitely chasing the lure thinking about it... I'm all in on #13&15. #11 should be acceptable in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The GEFS hasn't budged in like 6 runs in a row. With the 18z being the best of the crop so far. I'm not biting for a while but definitely chasing the lure thinking about it... I'm all in on #13&15. #11 should be acceptable in your area. This spit out a 6-8" in our mtns with 2-3" across the piedmont (my area) on 12/3/10. Uncanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 19 minutes ago, packbacker said: This spit out a 6-8" in our mtns with 2-3" across the piedmont (my area) on 12/3/10. Uncanny. That was the clipper that slid south of us and left us high and dry here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Bob and Packbacker must be working for Wxbell..... D@mn you both, I'm ready to pull the trigger on a subscription renewal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Bob and Packbacker must be working for Wxbell..... D@mn you both, I'm ready to pull the trigger on a subscription renewal! I'm waiting until Dec 1 no matter what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm waiting until Dec 1 no matter what Nope. You'll be dropping 25 beans before thanksgiving. For your yard in particular....it's happening. Change the oil in your tractor plow now before it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nope. You'll be dropping 25 beans before thanksgiving. For your yard in particular....it's happening. Change the oil in your tractor plow now before it's too late. Whaaaaaattttt? $25??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Whaaaaaattttt? $25??? Weenie inflation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Weenie inflation Not lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 $25 for weenie inflation? I hope it lasts 4 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 Just now, smokeybandit said: $25 for weenie inflation? I hope it lasts 4 hours Don't call your doctor if it does. Call everybody you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Really love the look!. PNA could be better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weenie inflation I got an email from Accuwx a few weeks ago offering 6 months of Pro for $10/month, but I was busy at the time I was going through my emails and forgot about the offer. Should have done it. Oh well. I'll live. The only thing I like about Accuwx are a few of the Euro products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 56 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: Really love the look!. PNA could be better though. At some point the -NAO forecast is going to work out. However, over the past few months, the NAO forecasts have been very inaccurate in the long range. Just something to keep in mind as we watch the mid-end of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Talking longer range so things can and will change, but at this point I favor the first opportunity over the second. The 5 day avg 500mb on day 15 shows an overall good look with key players in place. The one hangup though is the position of the trough on the east coast. At this point it is probably situated to far east to be of much benefit to our region. That look in my mind probably favors north of our region, most likely New England. Though I would maybe like to see the east coast trough shift just a touch more south and east the 5 day avg. on day 10 shows much promise. Over the last day or two this time period has steadily improved as well. Trough position, 850 temps and surface temps have all steadily improved to where we have this from the 00Z GEFS run. Edit: Can't show the 00Z EPS but it also has a great look, very similar to GEFS, for the 5 day avg. on day 10. Also on the second event it follows the GEFS and is too far east with the trough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 The GEFS mean NAO/AO looks great down the line but what I find more interesting with the mean is that there are no positive members in the spread from the 27th onward. It's unanimous. The EPS has much more spread in the positive direction but the mean is negative still. Might just be due to more EPS members. Hard to say but the GEFS certainly looks like a pattern we haven't seen since 2009-10. The rather remarkable recovery of the collapsed +PDO is pretty wild. It's anti-nina too. It was Pac jet driven and is a good example of how SSTA's on the NPac can be easily bullied with pattern persistence. Looks like an aleutian ridge is in the cards for a time coming up. That can shuffle things. Keeping warm anomalies along the west coast could potentially prove difficult with an aleutian ridge but who knows if the LR guidance is right and if it is, how persistent will it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Sounds good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 1 minute ago, PaEasternWX said: Sounds good to me https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/798371267694837760 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/798371267694837760 Just as reliable as posting the CFS snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 16 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: Just as reliable as posting the CFS snow map. There's a reason why it's free. Otoh, as discouraging as some lr stuff looked last week, I'd rather see it look like that than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.