November Med/Long Range Discussion

[WinterWxLuvr]

I don't know why people are surprised.  Weather forecasts beyond 7 days are pretty sketchy.  I suppose an ensemble is better than an operational, but even at that, 7 days plus is an iffy proposition.  And then I see people talking about monthly forecasts? Oh boy.

Now isn't the time to be getting discouraged.  Just last week I made a post about the GFS ensemble looking good beyond day 10.  Just 24 hours later those same ensemble members looked like they had been run by a completely different model.  I think when you get variability you can't make a determination.  We hear "pushed back in time" but I think it's really that there's nothing the models can latch onto that allows them to have a consistent forecast.  What I saw was a pretty vanilla looking zonal flow and it looked to be pretty uniform around the northern hemisphere.  To me, that's an equilibrium sort of state. It doesn't mean in two or three weeks that it won't be colder.  It just means the models don't see much that takes the flow away from that plain look that they have right now.  My comments are based on the gefs.

[mitchnick]

I don't have any worthwhile thoughts on this winter yet (which, of course, wrongly suggests that I sometimes do), but it is wayyyyy too early for anyone to be concerned imho. Looking at the SOI, 850 wind anomalies forecast, sub-surface temps, and some modeling, we will be lucky if we reach an official Nina. If we're neutral conditions in a month, which is entirely possible (maybe even likely per some forecasting tools), things may still get interesting around here.

[smokeybandit]

55 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Long range gfs has highs in the 30s for  Turkey day.... .As long as it's not in the 60s I'm fine with whatever.

You're talking Celsius right?

[Bob Chill]

We could get a transient cool shot on Thanksgiving but whatever pattern change we thought may happen this month is proving pretty elusive. The big trouble spots have been the east pac and the persistent vortex/low heights in the Bering Sea region. It doesn't matter what the AO/NAO look like. They can be negative all they want but north america is going to average AN as a whole as long as this persists. 

Take a look at the last 2 weeks. You can't get a worse Pac setup than this if you like more than 1-2 days of transient cool. All the cold in the NH is bottle up in Asia with no mechanism to cool NA or provide cross polar flow:

 

 

The GEFS/EPS d11-15 means show the same ole same ole continuing. Quick hitting troughs in the east and lots of Pac air flooding into NA. It's only Nov so there's no reason to even blink an eye irt Dec and beyond but if the low heights in the east pac and bering sea region are the persistent theme into the middle of Dec then BN calls for Dec are in trouble.

 

 

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

On 11/8/2016 at 5:19 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don't know why people are surprised.  Weather forecasts beyond 7 days are pretty sketchy.  I suppose an ensemble is better than an operational, but even at that, 7 days plus is an iffy proposition.  And then I see people talking about monthly forecasts? Oh boy.

Now isn't the time to be getting discouraged.  Just last week I made a post about the GFS ensemble looking good beyond day 10.  Just 24 hours later those same ensemble members looked like they had been run by a completely different model.  I think when you get variability you can't make a determination.  We hear "pushed back in time" but I think it's really that there's nothing the models can latch onto that allows them to have a consistent forecast.  What I saw was a pretty vanilla looking zonal flow and it looked to be pretty uniform around the northern hemisphere.  To me, that's an equilibrium sort of state. It doesn't mean in two or three weeks that it won't be colder.  It just means the models don't see much that takes the flow away from that plain look that they have right now.  My comments are based on the gefs.

Agree that getting discouraged for winter is silly right now but there has been a pretty persistent theme as I outlined in my previous post. When I look at ensemble mean plots I pretty much ignore large areas that are neutral and flat. The atmosphere never looks like that in real time. Spread is cancelling itself out. I typically focus on the areas with the highest anomalies because that shows the best consensus. Depending on where those areas are I mentally connect the dots irt what that typically means in my yard. The persistent blues in the Pac and west of AK are problematic. They pretty much erase any chance at persistent cold anywhere in NA. 

[packbacker]

25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agree that getting discouraged for winter is silly right now but there has been a pretty persistent theme as I outlined in my previous post. When I look at ensemble mean plots I pretty much ignore large areas that are neutral and flat. The atmosphere never looks like that in real time. Spread is cancelling itself out. I typically focus on the areas with the highest anomalies because that shows the best consensus. Depending on where those areas are I mentally connect the dots irt what that typically means in my yard. The persistent blues in the Pac and west of AK are problematic. They pretty much erase any chance at persistent cold anywhere in NA. 

I am not expecting to be mowing my lawn into Dec like last winter.  But, there isn't lot of great analogs with warm Oct/Nov's for weak nina's either.  

But, like you said above, the trough just off the west coast is cringe worthy.

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I am not expecting to be mowing my lawn into Dec like last winter.  But, there isn't lot of great analogs with warm Oct/Nov's for weak nina's either.  

But, like you said above, the trough just off the west coast is cringe worthy.

 

It's a messy mix of stuff to pick and choose what will eventually prevail for sure. It sure seems like the chances for HL blocking are fairly high so there's that. The strat is weak as a kitten and constantly under attack so far and very persistent modeling in keeping it that way. But that doesn't always work out for cold air and/or snow. When pac pattern is aligned properly a -AO/NAO can be easily trumped in NA. 

Enso is weird this year. Coming off a raging nino will most likely alter things from what we consider a classic nina pattern. How and what is altered is a big question mark. 

I'm pretty divided in where we go in Dec. The optimist in me thinks the current persistence in the Pac is good to have now and get it out of the way now before it matters. The pessimist in me is a little concerned that the early winter pattern may be showing its hand. 

I've been feeling pretty pessimistic for AN snow in our area regardless of temps. I cant shake the hunch that we suffer from near misses and/or not enough chances. I can't think of why the east should expect miller A's so that leaves Miller B's, clippers, and front end cutters...heh.

[mitchnick]

53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

It's a messy mix of stuff to pick and choose what will eventually prevail for sure. It sure seems like the chances for HL blocking are fairly high so there's that. The strat is weak as a kitten and constantly under attack so far and very persistent modeling in keeping it that way. But that doesn't always work out for cold air and/or snow. When pac pattern is aligned properly a -AO/NAO can be easily trumped in NA. 

Enso is weird this year. Coming off a raging nino will most likely alter things from what we consider a classic nina pattern. How and what is altered is a big question mark. 

I'm pretty divided in where we go in Dec. The optimist in me thinks the current persistence in the Pac is good to have now and get it out of the way now before it matters. The pessimist in me is a little concerned that the early winter pattern may be showing its hand. 

I've been feeling pretty pessimistic for AN snow in our area regardless of temps. I cant shake the hunch that we suffer from near misses and/or not enough chances. I can't think of why the east should expect miller A's so that leaves Miller B's, clippers, and front end cutters...heh.

Of everything you've discussed, the only thing that is tugging at my weenie heart now is the dryness. If we get through NOV with substantially BN precip (as is 50% or less), that would be a red flag to me as visions of 01/02 start to come to mind.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Of everything you've discussed, the only thing that is tugging at my weenie heart now is the dryness. If we get through NOV with substantially BN precip (as is 50% or less), that would be a red flag to me as visions of 01/02 start to come to mind.

Yea, that too. It could be a wet winter but I see no compelling reason to expect or predict it. 

[mattie g]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, that too. It could be a wet winter but I see no compelling reason to expect or predict it. 

Given that there's no obvious overwhelming signal at this point for cold, mild, wet, or dry over the next three f'ing months, then anyone getting worked up right now (either excited or dejected) is a

.

[yoda]

12z EURO LR enjoys h5 level and looks to bring in the first real cold blast (arctic blast?) Day 9 and 10

850s Day 10 are fun... around -10

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Given that there's no obvious overwhelming signal at this point for cold, mild, wet, or dry over the next three f'ing months, then anyone getting worked up right now (either excited or dejected) is a

 

Agreed. I'm split 50/50 with a gun to head guess of an overall lackluster winter. That's all I got. 

[packbacker]

38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. I'm split 50/50 with a gun to head guess of an overall lackluster winter. That's all I got. 

About where I am...although I am leaning more towards a 84/96/14 blend over a 06/08 blend at this point.  60/40 :-)

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm going with a 14/15, 9/10 hybrid.

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'm going with a 14/15, 9/10 hybrid.

Needz moar KUs

[Amped]

Summer ends in January now

[mattie g]

16 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. I'm split 50/50 with a gun to head guess of an overall lackluster winter. That's all I got. 

Me too. I honestly think there's a chance to go quite big, but there's an equal chance of us desperately, if hopelessly, looking at long range in February for some small sign of a backloaded winter.

[Bob Chill]

Euro weeklies offer nothing encouraging irt the hostile Pac. Keeps it going for the next 5 weeks. 

2 weeks ago gefs/eps were showing a decent east coast pattern setting this week and into next. That was a fail. Totally missed the anomalous pac. Now long range guidance across the board is locked on persistence. 

Yea I know...throw darts, flip coins, or look at long range guidance...but the signs are ominous right now for a pretty lame and warm Nov in NA with the theme potentially continuing well into Dec. 

A good tell as to how bad it's been this month is almost no ski resorts open in the Conus. Webcams in the Rockies look like September. New England is struggling bad getting things open. This is a very late start to the US ski season as a whole. TDay is typically a very brisk period of business in CO. It's looking atrocious for them right now. 

I suppose the one bright spot to the weeklies is a persistent -AO/NAO. Gives promise for a quick flip in EC weather if/when the pac starts cooperating. 

[RIC_WX]

I agree with mitchnick that resultant wx in November resembles 2001 a lot.  But, that year we had a very strong polar vortex (this year expected weak) and we had a lot of tropical activity this fall I don't remember that year, even though the rain largely missed DC.  Also, CWG posted yesterday these patterns are comparable to November 83 / November 98.  I always thought multi year analogs were a no-no in LR forecasting, and don't remember these seasons being called out too prominently anywhere.  That said, 98-99 was backloaded in DC and mostly under delivered, no?  

[mitchnick]

50 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

I agree with mitchnick that resultant wx in November resembles 2001 a lot.  But, that year we had a very strong polar vortex (this year expected weak) and we had a lot of tropical activity this fall I don't remember that year, even though the rain largely missed DC.  Also, CWG posted yesterday these patterns are comparable to November 83 / November 98.  I always thought multi year analogs were a no-no in LR forecasting, and don't remember these seasons being called out too prominently anywhere.  That said, 98-99 was backloaded in DC and mostly under delivered, no?  

I didn't quite go that far. I said : "If we get through NOV with substantially BN precip (as is 50% or less), that would be a red flag to me as visions of 01/02 start to come to mind." Basically, we need to get through NOV before looking for the best part of the cliff. Moreover, no 2 seasons are ever alike, so even if we have shades of 01/02, I doubt it will be that bad.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro weeklies offer nothing encouraging irt the hostile Pac. Keeps it going for the next 5 weeks. 

2 weeks ago gefs/eps were showing a decent east coast pattern setting this week and into next. That was a fail. Totally missed the anomalous pac. Now long range guidance across the board is locked on persistence. 

Yea I know...throw darts, flip coins, or look at long range guidance...but the signs are ominous right now for a pretty lame and warm Nov in NA with the theme potentially continuing well into Dec. 

A good tell as to how bad it's been this month is almost no ski resorts open in the Conus. Webcams in the Rockies look like September. New England is struggling bad getting things open. This is a very late start to the US ski season as a whole. TDay is typically a very brisk period of business in CO. It's looking atrocious for them right now. 

I suppose the one bright spot to the weeklies is a persistent -AO/NAO. Gives promise for a quick flip in EC weather if/when the pac starts cooperating. 

I'll be happy if it's mild along the SE coast in early December. That's as far out as I'm interesting in looking, so I'm liking the words that are flowing from your fingertips.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, RIC_WX said:

I agree with mitchnick that resultant wx in November resembles 2001 a lot.  But, that year we had a very strong polar vortex (this year expected weak) and we had a lot of tropical activity this fall I don't remember that year, even though the rain largely missed DC.  Also, CWG posted yesterday these patterns are comparable to November 83 / November 98.  I always thought multi year analogs were a no-no in LR forecasting, and don't remember these seasons being called out too prominently anywhere.  That said, 98-99 was backloaded in DC and mostly under delivered, no?  

Nov 98 is a REALLY good match to what we are experiencing. But rolling that forward into Dec doesn't look anything like what LR guidance we have available. Still a few weeks away from really knowing much about early Dec but everything kinda looks like we start off Dec looking like Nov 98 also. 

 

Here's Nov so far

 

And here's Dec 98

 

 

I'm have my doubts that we roll forward into a Dec 98 type of pattern. Mostly because there are unusually strong signs for a -AO to build through the month and potentially continue. Like Mitch said, different years always have their own unique twists and turns. My fear is more of a Dec 2012 repeat than 1998.

 

My guess is the Pac reshuffles in December. The roaring jet into NA will run out of steam. By mid Dec it would be 2 full months if it holds like it is. That seems unlikely but just a guess. How things change down the line is definitely a dart toss.  

 

 

[RIC_WX]

40 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I didn't quite go that far. I said : "If we get through NOV with substantially BN precip (as is 50% or less), that would be a red flag to me as visions of 01/02 start to come to mind." Basically, we need to get through NOV before looking for the best part of the cliff. Moreover, no 2 seasons are ever alike, so even if we have shades of 01/02, I doubt it will be that bad.

Didn't mean to misquote you.  IIRC September 2001 wasn't anywhere near as warm as 2016, and likely October neither.  My point was the endless prediction of sunny days and crisp, clear nights isn't entirely unprecedented although pretty rare.

To use an aviation term, we've had a preponderance of "severe clear" days here lately...which aren't entirely common any time of year here for any extended period of time.  At least 2 so far this week alone (portions of Monday and Thursday for sure).

[Jon]

29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nov 98 is a REALLY good match to what we are experiencing. But rolling that forward into Dec doesn't look anything like what LR guidance we have available. Still a few weeks away from really knowing much about early Dec but everything kinda looks like we start off Dec looking like Nov 98 also. 

Here's Nov so far

And here's Dec 98

I'm have my doubts that we roll forward into a Dec 98 type of pattern. Mostly because there are unusually strong signs for a -AO to build through the month and potentially continue. Like Mitch said, different years always have their own unique twists and turns. My fear is more of a Dec 2012 repeat than 1998.

My guess is the Pac reshuffles in December. The roaring jet into NA will run out of steam. By mid Dec it would be 2 full months if it holds like it is. That seems unlikely but just a guess. How things change down the line is definitely a dart toss.  

 

Ignoring the pole it looks a lot like the start to Nov 83 at least on our side of the globe. First week of '83 was very similar. Can't upload an image because I'm at work, but take a look. I know this year was spewed out of everyone's mouths early on as a possible analog, but I'm only mentioning it because it's the closest analog, to me, of what we're experiencing for the first week of Nov. Also how Nov 83 finished, with a trough on the west, seems to be more than likely at least for some point of the month. If anything this shows some how things can turn around, silver lining...

 

[packbacker]

55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nov 98 is a REALLY good match to what we are experiencing. But rolling that forward into Dec doesn't look anything like what LR guidance we have available. Still a few weeks away from really knowing much about early Dec but everything kinda looks like we start off Dec looking like Nov 98 also. 

 

 

Here's Nov so far

 

 

And here's Dec 98

 

 

 

I'm have my doubts that we roll forward into a Dec 98 type of pattern. Mostly because there are unusually strong signs for a -AO to build through the month and potentially continue. Like Mitch said, different years always have their own unique twists and turns. My fear is more of a Dec 2012 repeat than 1998.

 

 

My guess is the Pac reshuffles in December. The roaring jet into NA will run out of steam. By mid Dec it would be 2 full months if it holds like it is. That seems unlikely but just a guess. How things change down the line is definitely a dart toss.  

 

 

84 isn't a bad match.  The one thing that 83/95/13 had in Oct/Nov was a Kara/Scand low which doesn't match up well. 

But yeah....what we are seeing for the most part doesn't match up well with the cold/snowy analogs.

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Seeing Nov 83 mentioned makes me think of Christmas of 83.  Big time cold.

Then seeing 84 mentioned gets me thinking of Jan of 85.  Holy sh*t cold.

[Jon]

49 minutes ago, packbacker said:

84 isn't a bad match.  The one thing that 83/95/13 had in Oct/Nov was a Kara/Scand low which doesn't match up well. 

But yeah....what we are seeing for the most part doesn't match up well with the cold/snowy analogs.

 

Looks a lot like Nov '98 too...we all know how that winter worked out.

[packbacker]

6 minutes ago, Jon said:

Looks a lot like Nov '98 too...we all know how that winter worked out.

No shocker on 98...posted that in our thread a week or so ago.  The winters following the last super nino were extremely warm.

But, of course I would take another 99/00 repeat.

[packbacker]

Is interesting seeing the GEFS trying to wrap the cold around the NH.

 

[showmethesnow]

Shame that the cold is on the other side of the globe. With seasonable temps this setup on the 00Z GFS would be interesting even though it is 8-10 days out. The surface representation seems somewhat wonky to what I would expect to see when I look at the 500's though. Has trouble really cranking up the associated low and moves it around quite a bit. It does generate enough cold to plaster the higher elevations in the mountains with up to 2 feet of snow. 

(Getting old and can't remember,  but we can post images from weatherbell as long as it is not the Euro. Am I right on that?)