North Balti Zen Posted November 4, 2016 Share Posted November 4, 2016 The two posts right before Yeoman's are awesome back-to-back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2016 Author Share Posted November 4, 2016 7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: The two posts right before Yeoman's are awesome back-to-back. People already getting shaky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 4, 2016 Share Posted November 4, 2016 Super LR 12z GFS is lulz... lots of cutoff action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted November 4, 2016 Share Posted November 4, 2016 Regardless of what the models are saying lately for the long range. I still believe in a big pattern change sometime around late November. I think the AO goes positive for awhile mid month and drops late November . Following will be the EPO that will enhance the cold shot giving giving us a wintry type atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 4, 2016 Share Posted November 4, 2016 Cooler does not mean cold. Write up from Boston - http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/11/04/november-musings/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2016 Author Share Posted November 4, 2016 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: Cooler does not mean cold. Write up from Boston - http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/11/04/november-musings/ You have to get cooler before you get cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 DCA's last November snowfall above a trace was 20 years ago, so we must put an end to that record in style! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2016 Author Share Posted November 6, 2016 There are gfs members that have flakes in the area from day 10 onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 9 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There are gfs members that have flakes in the area from day 10 onward. Yes the GFS is flaky day 10 onward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 I'm not making any predictions, and I'm not even willing to make my first-and-final guess in the snowfall competition, but I can't shake this feeling that we might have a banner year. If we pick up a few inches early in December, then we could be on our way to another (well?) above-normal season. Obviously, that's not the smart bet, and I've probably jinxed us just by putting it out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 6z GFS at end of run shows vigorous snow/rain storm for Ohio Valley eastward to mid-atlantic, possibly confirming everyone's forecast of mid to late November cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 Eps is showing quite a shift in the pac d10-15. GOA trough is gone by d10 and fairly strong mean ridge builds in the Aleutians and northward d10-15. Pac jet is cutoff from Canada and the insane + anoms across Canada are largely reversed by d15. Looks like our dry spell could change fortunes centered around d10 or so. Very strong signal for a storm at long leads. EPS mean precip around 1". Some prolific rainers in the ind members. Fairly unanimous that we get some decent precip. Beyond that it looks like late fall with highs in the upper 40's and 50's. I'll be in CT for the holiday rooting for snow. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Eps is showing quite a shift in the pac d10-15. GOA trough is gone by d10 and fairly strong mean ridge builds in the Aleutians and northward d10-15. Pac jet is cutoff from Canada and the insane + anoms across Canada are largely reversed by d15. Looks like our dry spell could change fortunes centered around d10 or so. Very strong signal for a storm at long leads. EPS mean precip around 1". Some prolific rainers in the ind members. Fairly unanimous that we get some decent precip. Beyond that it looks like late fall with highs in the upper 40's and 50's. I'll be in CT for the holiday rooting for snow. Lol. You don't think that type of pattern could produce snow for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 1 hour ago, BTRWx said: You don't think that type of pattern could produce snow for our area? Unlikely. A big dynamic event or a perfect time into a -15 air mass isn't impossible but snow is pretty rare in Nov near the cities for a reason. Last week of the month is less of a climo fight but even then. Could be some good up slope in the apps on tap. Hopefully Canada starts loading up the cold in a couple weeks. That's step 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Unlikely. A big dynamic event or a perfect time into a -15 air mass isn't impossible but snow is pretty rare in Nov near the cities for a reason. Last week of the month is less of a climo fight but even then. Could be some good up slope in the apps on tap. Hopefully Canada starts loading up the cold in a couple weeks. That's step 1. Thanks, love your response! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Euro op + para and ensembles are still very bullish for a good rainer sometime around the 17th. 0z op runs both show gusty SE winds (30-50mph) and heavy rain in the area. EPS mean precip has bumped up to 1.2"+ for the area. GEFS coming around too. Would be nice to break the dry stretch with an actual storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Very impressive 30 day comparison in the NPac. After the +PDO completely collapsed it's making a strong comeback due the the raging pac jet and parade of storms over the last month. Still a good bit of warm south of 40 centered around the dateline so it's a modest +PDO at best right now but the pac definitely looks better than it did a month ago. It's not particularly common for cold enso to also have a +PDO so we won't have a good handle on it for another month but if we go into Dec with a +PDO it would be a net + for early winter in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Euro op + para and ensembles are still very bullish for a good rainer sometime around the 17th. 0z op runs both show gusty SE winds (30-50mph) and heavy rain in the area. EPS mean precip has bumped up to 1.2"+ for the area. GEFS coming around too. Would be nice to break the dry stretch with an actual storm. Bob, is the operational looking like it would start before the morning of the 16th down in SE VA? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Yes Tuesday evening start with heaviest rain over by morning but intermittent rain through all of Wednesday. Temperatures near 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 25 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Yes Tuesday evening start with heaviest rain over by morning but intermittent rain through all of Wednesday. Temperatures near 60. Thanks so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Eurasian snowpack is up 42% lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 The notion of a mild holiday is starting to emerge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 At this point, will not be surprised if we get a mild December. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 20 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: At this point, will not be surprised if we get a mild December. We will see. If you're saying milder than 1981-2010 averages that's an easy call, every month runs at least 2 degrees above it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The notion of a mild holiday is starting to emerge. They need to start playing holiday movies with palm trees and people in shorts and shirt sleeves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The notion of a mild holiday is starting to emerge. Of course. Another T-day outside in shorts and with the A/C running inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 I don't really care about a +2 December as much as I care about why it's warm. Hopeless Decembers or cold only after rain Decembers are the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Ian (missed by me in these parts anymore), laughing about the continually delayed flip to cold on the modeling on twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 16 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Ian (missed by me in these parts anymore), laughing about the continually delayed flip to cold on the modeling on twitter. I thought Ian was taking a little break and would be back for winter, but maybe not. I hope that he starts showing up as I miss his thoughts too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 I hope he comes back too, but some of his comments on twitter make me think he may not. At least, not like he used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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