mitchnick Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The d10-15 period seems to be the precursor of what could potentially be cross polar flow down the line. With the big if being the ridge in the west continues to retro then cold air would have no problem building in central canada and hp over the pole could potentially draw from siberia. Total speculation on how we "could" extensive cold into the conus towards the end of the month. OTOH- if the upper MW and all of Canada build some snowcover late month then that is always a good thing down the line. Nov isn't important for us near the cities though. We have to root for favorable in early Dec and that's so far out there that I have no opinions. Trust me, as you get older, 4-5 weeks is nothin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Its nov 1...and I am back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 1, 2016 Author Share Posted November 1, 2016 Cold in central and northern Canada doesn't take long to build up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 57 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Cold in central and northern Canada doesn't take long to build up. It really doesn't. Especially with snow cover but it really doesn't look like their will be much if any significant cold in north america through mid month. Probably beyond. I'm skeptical of a quick flip mid month for most of the US. Ens are doing their usual push back in time thing in the long range. My guess is the first meaningful cold push into the conus probably won't happen until the 3rd or even 4th week of the month if it's going to happen at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 1, 2016 Author Share Posted November 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It really doesn't. Especially with snow cover but it really doesn't look like their will be much if any significant cold in north america through mid month. Probably beyond. I'm skeptical of a quick flip mid month for most of the US. Ens are doing their usual push back in time thing in the long range. My guess is the first meaningful cold push into the conus probably won't happen until the 3rd or even 4th week of the month if it's going to happen at all. Pattern changes seem to always take longer than expected. My guess is that in 10 days we might see one in the med range. They've been hinting at it but like you said it seems to be getting pushed back, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Pattern changes seem to always take longer than expected. My guess is that in 10 days we might see one in the med range. They've been hinting at it but like you said it seems to be getting pushed back, as usual. Its gonna be a couple weeks at least. We may be one of the few places to have at least coolish temps until then. Until that GOA low retrogrades, its going to be tough to get any real cold building into much of Canada, and ultimately into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 8 hours ago, RIC_WX said: In past seasons, we've complained about "wasting" cold in November when climo says it's not likely to snow anyway. Last December was about as bad as it can get here, hard to imagine we can't improve upon that. Last Christmas was neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 41 minutes ago, PDIII said: Last Christmas was neat. Yep, 65 degree dew points definitely helped to get wrinkles out of the no-iron shirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 European flipped on NAO and went positive . Flip to cold pattern less likely until later in the month at best. Bob mentioned this started to show yesterday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 53 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: European flipped on NAO and went positive . Flip to cold pattern less likely until later in the month at best. Bob mentioned this started to show yesterday . Another T-day in shorts. Hooray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Waiting for the winter on the board when we say - "man, the modeled changes are getting here earlier than progged!" Won't hold my breath... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: European flipped on NAO and went positive . Flip to cold pattern less likely until later in the month at best. Bob mentioned this started to show yesterday . I don't think anyone said the flip was going to happen in the 6-10 day period that map depicts, so nothing has really changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 57 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I don't think anyone said the flip was going to happen in the 6-10 day period that map depicts, so nothing has really changed. Bang on, mitch. I don't recall anyone (except the unrealistic) ever expected a flip before the first full week of the month was out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 3 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: European flipped on NAO and went positive . Flip to cold pattern less likely until later in the month at best. Bob mentioned this started to show yesterday . How many times has this happened with the euro...lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Grabbed wxbell this morning for the season and just looked through everything. EPS is basically the same as the GEFS with retrograding the goa low to the aleutians and building a favorable ridge in western NA. By the 15-17th, the eastern trough is firmly established. Euro weeklies continue this type of pattern through the end of the month. So right now, all guidance has a similar pattern by d15. A good test coming up for the models. Interestingly, the MJO is waking up and consensus is running the phase 7-8-1 (and hopefully 2) loop down the line. The OND phase correlation this type of MJO progression for the east is warm 7, cool 8, slightly warm 1, and cool 2. Long range weeklies and CFS both show a winter pattern in early Dec. Not uber cold or anything like that. Just a more typical pattern that would support periods of below normal temps. For the weenies...myself included...clown maps and meteograms for both the CFS and weeklies have snow in the area during the first half of Dec. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 2, 2016 Author Share Posted November 2, 2016 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Grabbed wxbell this morning for the season and just looked through everything. EPS is basically the same as the GEFS with retrograding the goa low to the aleutians and building a favorable ridge in western NA. By the 15-17th, the eastern trough is firmly established. Euro weeklies continue this type of pattern through the end of the month. So right now, all guidance has a similar pattern by d15. A good test coming up for the models. Interestingly, the MJO is waking up and consensus is running the phase 7-8-1 (and hopefully 2) loop down the line. The OND phase correlation this type of MJO progression for the east is warm 7, cool 8, slightly warm 1, and cool 2. Long range weeklies and CFS both show a winter pattern in early Dec. Not uber cold or anything like that. Just a more typical pattern that would support periods of below normal temps. For the weenies...myself included...clown maps and meteograms for both the CFS and weeklies have snow in the area during the first half of Dec. LOL Easy connection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 47 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Easy connection I've moved from OTA's to pre-season today. In 3 weeks regular season mode will commence. 12z gefs isn't moving anything back in time. My guess is you get some sort of accum event during the last 10 days of the month. Canada is starting to ripen based on the GEFS: It's a progressive h5 pattern but cold fronts would be cold fronts and not cool fronts. Blocking should set up by the holiday. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Grabbed wxbell this morning for the season and just looked through everything. EPS is basically the same as the GEFS with retrograding the goa low to the aleutians and building a favorable ridge in western NA. By the 15-17th, the eastern trough is firmly established. Euro weeklies continue this type of pattern through the end of the month. So right now, all guidance has a similar pattern by d15. A good test coming up for the models. Interestingly, the MJO is waking up and consensus is running the phase 7-8-1 (and hopefully 2) loop down the line. The OND phase correlation this type of MJO progression for the east is warm 7, cool 8, slightly warm 1, and cool 2. Long range weeklies and CFS both show a winter pattern in early Dec. Not uber cold or anything like that. Just a more typical pattern that would support periods of below normal temps. For the weenies...myself included...clown maps and meteograms for both the CFS and weeklies have snow in the area during the first half of Dec. LOL I would much rather see this in Jan/Feb than Nov. 7/8 is usually a decent indicator of a storm. At least it doesnt look like the MJO is forecast to go back into the COD once it moves out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 2, 2016 Author Share Posted November 2, 2016 I think I'm going to wait until Dec 1 for my WxBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think I'm going to wait until Dec 1 for my WxBell I was thinking that too. But given what the ens means have been advertising for a while now, I think I have convinced myself that the 3 months of winter(and wxbell) will be NDJ this year lol. I will decide tonight, after a few drinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 2, 2016 Author Share Posted November 2, 2016 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: I was thinking that too. But given what the ens means have been advertising for a while now, I think I have convinced myself that the 3 months of winter(and wxbell) will be NDJ this year lol. I will decide tonight, after a few drinks. Yes. Most good decisions come after a few good drinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Through 15 days the cold is not really showing up on the EURO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Longer range does show the colder. I suspect cooler! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: Through 15 days the cold is not really showing up on the EURO! IF (big if @ 15 day leads of course) things progress as expected, it's going to be a process to knock out the expansive + anoms in Canada. That has to happen first before any outbreak can push into the conus. From what guidance is showing, the earliest that Canada can slow get rid of the relentless pac flood is mid month. Assuming the pna or epo ridge happens relatively on time, there's probably a week lag before anything meaningful can break into the US. That is a good bit beyond any reasonable range that guidance can hone in on the spread. The pac jet is roaring and there is a parade of shortwaves embedded in the flow to keep the pac jet train running at full steam slamming into Canada for what looks like at least 10 days. There is zero chance canada or the US can get cold when the jet and h5 pattern look like this: By d10, the jet is just beginning to buckle and slow down off the west coast but the ridge still hasn't retrograded enough to build HP build on the lee side of the canadian rockies so Canada is still roasting. By D15 the process is complete and hp is building in a good source region for a more pronounced cold outbreak down the line. The flow into central Canada is now across the arctic and not blasting in from the Pac. The short story is the overall warm temp regime in NA isn't going anywhere until the 3rd or even 4th week of Nov (if at all of course. 15 day means are sketchy at best but there is consensus). The euro ens look pretty much the same as the gefs so going to a more seasonable regime without quick easy warm ups somewhere around mid month continues to look like a decent call. If the ridge axis persists along the west coast down the line we'll start seeing our first meaningful winter wx invasions in the east half of the conus with snowfall in the upper midwest-across the GL region-and probably into the NE. We could score some cold rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 it is interesting how different, quite different actually, the 12Z vs 6Z operational looks from today however.... especially toward the later days 11-15. not sure it means anything but it makes me more skeptical of the above GEFS plots from 6Z. I am just holding out hope for a cold-ish turkey day, week 4, and I don't think that is off the table yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 3, 2016 Author Share Posted November 3, 2016 33 minutes ago, BristowWx said: it is interesting how different, quite different actually, the 12Z vs 6Z operational looks from today however.... especially toward the later days 11-15. not sure it means anything but it makes me more skeptical of the above GEFS plots from 6Z. I am just holding out hope for a cold-ish turkey day, week 4, and I don't think that is off the table yet. Might as well throw darts as to put stock into an operational 11-15 prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Might as well throw darts as to put stock into an operational 11-15 prog. Truth. I compared late run op vs ens and thought they looked unusually similar this go around though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Things looking consistent now in the long range for sure! Cooler weather looks to be coming! =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 4, 2016 Share Posted November 4, 2016 Hearing that the Euro weeklies are a torch all the way through per Eric Fisher just minutes ago . He said they might be a bit over done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 4, 2016 Share Posted November 4, 2016 whatever is coming, you have no idea.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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