Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 I'm not worried about a perfect storm pattern. They're great and all but not particularly common. Gefs/eps show a pattern good enough to give us a flawed event during the first half of Dec. Better than no chance at all like the last 2 years. There going to be ample cold around NA in general on tap it appears. That's ingredient #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 I'm going with a +3 for Dec at all three airports. AN precip. I think it will get wet at some point and we will get a driving rainstorm or two. No measurable snow. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I'm going with a +3 for Dec at all three airports. AN precip. I think it will get wet at some point and we will get a driving rainstorm or two. No measurable snow. We shall see. Sorry to do it to you man, but you're busted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 I stand corrected. That still looks ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 I'm not worried about a perfect storm pattern. They're great and all but not particularly common. Gefs/eps show a pattern good enough to give us a flawed event during the first half of Dec. Better than no chance at all like the last 2 years. There going to be ample cold around NA in general on tap it appears. That's ingredient #1. Agreed. Cold will be lurking. Might be sloppy storms but sloppy is better than none!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 I agree that a La Nina look is not good for your area, maybe interior sections nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2016 Author Share Posted November 26, 2016 New thread everyone. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49271-december-medlong-range-discussion/ Please post there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 I'm not sure why anyone would be pessimistic right now. Maybe I don't see things the same way. Early Dec is absolutely not an easy snow period and rarely a 5"+ event period. What I see coming up seems pretty decent for our typical conversational snow events. From the 5th onward the majority of the conus and Canada will have below normal temps. Including our area. A 1-2" event could easily happen with the temp and height patterns being advertised. Part of the reason the AO is forecast to go neutral or + is because a trop pv lobe sets up shop north of HB. It's a tradeoff. The lobe brings some good cold into north central Canada. The squeeze between that and the epo ridge sets up a pretty solid cross polar flow too. Gefs/eps agree that 850 temps are below normal after the warmup next week. Mean 0c line stays south from d8 through the ends of the runs. The period coming up looks like one of the better Dec patterns we've seen since 2010 or 2013. If the look holds it will be better than 2013 because that was a volatile month overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not sure why anyone would be pessimistic right now. Maybe I don't see things the same way. Early Dec is absolutely not an easy snow period and rarely a 5"+ event period. What I see coming up seems pretty decent for our typical conversational snow events. From the 5th onward the majority of the conus and Canada will have below normal temps. Including our area. A 1-2" event could easily happen with the temp and height patterns being advertised. Part of the reason the AO is forecast to go neutral or + is because a trop pv lobe sets up shop north of HB. It's a tradeoff. The lobe brings some good cold into north central Canada. The squeeze between that and the epo ridge sets up a pretty solid cross polar flow too. Gefs/eps agree that 850 temps are below normal after the warmup next week. Mean 0c line stays south from d8 through the ends of the runs. The period coming up looks like one of the better Dec patterns we've seen since 2010 or 2013. If the look holds it will be better than 2013 because that was a volatile month overall. Folks forget Climo . You need an exceptional pattern to produce in early December. I would be cool to have the best chances of cold and snow to occur right near the holiday and extending into early January. If we do get some sort of PV displacment ,and or weakening later in the month of December, watch out. For this time , like you mention Bob, very cold air is nearby and would lilely not moderate as snow cover gets going quickly up North starting next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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