November Med/Long Range Discussion

[showmethesnow]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's a lot of things to worry about for the next 2-4 weeks. I'm not sure the strat pv is one of them. At least not in my mind anyways. 

It might be what we need to give the strong and stubborn Pac jet the boot.

We are the mid-Atlantic though, when DON'T we worry about something or other when it comes to snow or lack thereof. It just happens that the worrying started up a month early with expectations of an early winter and an earlier dismiss. 

[nw baltimore wx]

12z gfs has a different look (again) with regards to next week, and not for the better. It's probably a little too early in the season to be seriously thinking about storm tracks out of the south to deliver snow for us in the 95 corridor anyway, but I could see the western areas doing well with one of those systems. 

I'm not sure who I'm kidding.  I keep thinking that I can will that trough east in the next model update.

[BristowWx]

to put a positive spin on it maybe if the trough migrates east later in Dec its better for most of us.  I think Bob said that.  Better chance of being colder and settling in for holidays.  big assumption as the trough could migrate but the NAO and AO could rise and kill it for us... but its something to hope for. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

to put a positive spin on it maybe if the trough migrates east later in Dec its better for most of us.  I think Bob said that.  Better chance of being colder and settling in for holidays.  big assumption as the trough could migrate but the NAO and AO could rise and kill it for us... but its something to hope for. 

It's what I'm hoping for and is completely logical. It's a normal winter type pattern progression in the conus. Storm cycle/cold in the west coupled with successive storm tracks carving eastward over time. Especially as snow cover gets established. The baroclinic zone can progress with the snow pack because of temp gradients. 

The pac is changing. No doubt about that. I posted in the SE forum earlier. Take a look at mid oct through mid nov heights and zonal wind anomlies with the jet. Very persistent and strong GOA trough and ripping jet flooded all of NA with warm air. 

 

 

 

GOA trough is rolling forward into the conus right now and the jet is forecast to buckle in the pac. This is during the next 10 days and not way out there in time. 

 

 

 

The 2 things to worry about down the line are:

The ridge in the GOA retros westward and we're back to a GOA vortex screwing with us 

A ridge does in fact build in the PNA/EPO regions but we lose the blocking pattern over GL/HB so we have the dreaded warm/wet to cold/dry pattern. 

 

I'm fairly optimistic that neither of those things happen on the heels of the dominate western trough running its course. We'll know in a week or so if the chances for a nice window in Dec look good. I don't expect much here until probably Dec 10th and beyond. 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

I think any chance for widespread (light) accumulating snow in the next 2 weeks is probably going to be a weak wave along a front that stalls down south.  Big cold front goes through with some GL cutter and then the tail end of the front stalls down south and a little vortmax kicks up a weak wave that passes to our south.  

[Stormcatt]

to put a positive spin on it maybe if the trough migrates east later in Dec its better for most of us.  I think Bob said that.  Better chance of being colder and settling in for holidays.  big assumption as the trough could migrate but the NAO and AO could rise and kill it for us... but its something to hope for. 

I'll take a cooperating Pacific over the Atlantic everyday and twice on Sunday . Sure , then your relying on timing but heck I live in Birmingham and I've scored 2 out of the last 3 years with a +pna/-epo combo all while the NAO was in vacation .

I can do well in my area with app runners and inland runners . Of course it's a different beast up your way with those type tracks unless you can miller B it

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[BristowWx]

but the timing has to be exact or you get a cutter...or cold air retreats without the -NAO/-AO unless you have that elusive 50/50 low that never seems to be in the right spot...maybe just a less hostile PAC and the same Atlantic is something to hope for...not sure what to hope for...too much blocking and you get suppression city.  Better for you I suppose in Deep South.  Time will tell us soon enough.

[Stormcatt]

but the timing has to be exact or you get a cutter...or cold air retreats without the -NAO/-AO unless you have that elusive 50/50 low that never seems to be in the right spot...maybe just a less hostile PAC and the same Atlantic is something to hope for...not sure what to hope for...too much blocking and you get suppression city.  Better for you I suppose in Deep South.  Time will tell us soon enough.

I agree good point . Living in south during winter, nothing is better for us down here lol . it's pretty much horrible

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[yoda]

12z GFS at superduper LR looks like a large arctic dump coming into the US from Canada.... hope we can get it to stay on the future runs

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, BristowWx said:

but the timing has to be exact or you get a cutter...or cold air retreats without the -NAO/-AO unless you have that elusive 50/50 low that never seems to be in the right spot...maybe just a less hostile PAC and the same Atlantic is something to hope for...not sure what to hope for...too much blocking and you get suppression city.  Better for you I suppose in Deep South.  Time will tell us soon enough.

Or option 3.  You time cutters with high pressure over the ne.  CAD is our friend.

[BristowWx]

Interesting.  I like option 3.  CAD seems to be the only thing that we do okay with...and warm of course.

[WxUSAF]

23 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I think any chance for widespread (light) accumulating snow in the next 2 weeks is probably going to be a weak wave along a front that stalls down south.  Big cold front goes through with some GL cutter and then the tail end of the front stalls down south and a little vortmax kicks up a weak wave that passes to our south.  

12z GFS has this sort of scenario around 288-312 hours with light snow well N/W of the cities. Obviously not worth taking at face value, but it's the general idea.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

12z GFS has this sort of scenario around 288-312 hours with light snow well N/W of the cities. Obviously not worth taking at face value, but it's the general idea.  

I thought it was a good point when you made it.  I thought of your post when I looked at the 12z run.  It almost did it with the system it moves through late next week.  

My memory of Dec 5,2009 is that it happened in a similar way, a low that developed on the tail of a strong cold front that moved through.  Could be bad memory though.

[WxUSAF]

54 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I thought it was a good point when you made it.  I thought of your post when I looked at the 12z run.  It almost did it with the system it moves through late next week.  

My memory of Dec 5,2009 is that it happened in a similar way, a low that developed on the tail of a strong cold front that moved through.  Could be bad memory though.

I don't have the encyclopedia memory for small/medium snow events that someone like Zwtys/Matt/DeckPic does.  But it's a fairly common scenario for us, particularly in a otherwise cutter-friendly pattern.  Often they're not modeled from 200+ hours away but pop up on the guidance within 5-6 days.  Something to watch after the first couple days of December.    

 

18z GFS has the same storm again, more or less, FWIW and even spits out one panel of light snow for NoVA.  

[yoda]

End of the 18z GFS run is beautiful... huge arctic blast entering the country

[CAPE]

Both the EPS and GEFS seem to be building heights back over the Aleutians, with lower heights in GOA and along the west coast toward the end of their recent runs.  Looks like we have retrogression, not progression on the Pacific side.

[frd]

Not liking the increased spread on the forecasts regarding AO. a lot of divergence there with some members going positive.

I believe I read in the New York thread , from Bluewave , that the way the AO goes the first 10 days of December is a major signal for the rest of the month.  

This change in the AO forecasts may be due to changes taking , or forecasted to take place with the PV. There are some forecasters speculating that the PV strengthens in time and this continues even through January. I believe the mechanisms here were wave flux divergence. 

 

 

 

[Wonderdog]

Looking at the 18z run, I thought for a second that the storm being injected out of the sw on 12/3 might develop into something but not to be. Think though it might be something to watch.

[showmethesnow]

39 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Looking at the 18z run, I thought for a second that the storm being injected out of the sw on 12/3 might develop into something but not to be. Think though it might be something to watch.

Actually a secondary low develops in the gulf and follows on the heels of your initial low and rides underneath our region. Snow map though only shows 1/2 inch to an inch in the further north and west suburbs.

[mitchnick]

I hear Euro weeklies sweet weeks 2-6 with -epo, trough, and then some. Waiting for Bob to chime in....Bob, just drink the rest of the Schlitz 6 pack later and give us some better info now!

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I hear Euro weeklies sweet weeks 2-6 with -epo, trough, and then some. Waiting for Bob to chime in....Bob, just drink the rest of the Schlitz 6 pack later and give us some better info now!

Didn't see them yet but it sounds like it has a -NAO? Just read on twitter that it pops a huge ridge over the central US week 4

[Bob Chill]

Lol mitch. I'm in CT drinking high dollar brew on my bro in law's dime. And in a food coma. And forgot the weeklies ran today....

 

They look fine. Ups and downs and probably below average temps in general. H5 never loses the higher heights over the hb/gl area. No signs of a SE ridge. Pretty blocky in general. Kinda reminds me of a Dec 2010 pattern. 

The only thing I would say that I don't like is it seems like below normal precip once the big Aleutian ridge takes over. Clippers and stuff. Not really a split flow or STJ connection pattern. SNE probably really likes the run though. 

I don't see how anyone in the east would consider the run bad. Especially considering the last 2 Decembers. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Thankful to hear good news from Bob and Mitch.

Lets get this thing going early this year.

[packbacker]

38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol mitch. I'm in CT drinking high dollar brew on my bro in law's dime. And in a food coma. And forgot the weeklies ran today....

 

They look fine. Ups and downs and probably below average temps in general. H5 never loses the higher heights over the hb/gl area. No signs of a SE ridge. Pretty blocky in general. Kinda reminds me of a Dec 2010 pattern. 

The only thing I would say that I don't like is it seems like below normal precip once the big Aleutian ridge takes over. Clippers and stuff. Not really a split flow or STJ connection pattern. SNE probably really likes the run though. 

I don't see how anyone in the east would consider the run bad. Especially considering the last 2 Decembers. 

Yep...hard to complain.  The 46 day mean is BN for the sw to lower plains to SE and up to NE.   And that's with days 1-12 we'll AN for us.

Weeks 5 and 6 are a nino pattern, aleutian low with blocking.

I think these are the "old" model weeklies, new ones aren't out yet   

 

[CAPE]

Actually the new weeklies are out. And not too bad either, although the pattern never quite gets right in the EPac until the end of December into early Jan. Hopefully we do ultimately see that improvement in the EPO region. Overall we could do much worse than whats being advertised. Looks like there will be some cold periods and certainly could be a chance or 2 for some wintry weather in the MA before Xmas.

[nw baltimore wx]

I never thought that I'd be this excited about the possibility of 2 inches of rain in late November and early December.

ETA that I may have to put decimal in front of that 2.

[Wonderdog]

Maybe some of us will get 1-2 I inches of snow 12/3-4.

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I never thought that I'd be this excited about the possibility of 2 inches of rain in late November and early December.

ETA that I may have to put decimal in front of that 2.

Maybe some of us will get 1-2 inches of snow on 12/4.

[BristowWx]

I don't like LR GFS at all.  Goes out through almost mid Dec and at least on the op the players aren't in the right positions.  I can spin it that it sets us up for later in the month but who knows if that is true.  I know it's the op but would like to see things line up at bit better.

[Stormcatt]

I don't like LR GFS at all.  Goes out through almost mid Dec and at least on the op the players aren't in the right positions.  I can spin it that it sets us up for later in the month but who knows if that is true.  I know it's the op but would like to see things line up at bit better.

gefs supports the OP

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