CAPE Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Bastardi lol He should post the last few model cycles of the CFSv2 for Dec. Now looks toasty for the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Where do I need to look to see the cold CFSv2 runs for December? When I look at plots at this site for the last several days I see model forecasts ranging from "just above average" to "toasty" for our area. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 55 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Where do I need to look to see the cold CFSv2 runs for December? When I look at plots at this site for the last several days I see model forecasts ranging from "just above average" to "toasty" for our area. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/ I use WeatherBell I looked at the 12z and 18z runs from yesterday. The 2m temps are toasty for December. It is the CFS though, so if you dont like what you see, wait a run or 2 lol. Overall trend in the guidance for the long range lately has been to dump cold further west though, so who knows. Just comical how JB will always manage to locate "evidence" to back up his claims of brutal cold on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 While it looks like the west will be favored for a while, the gradient type look with lows running west doesn't eliminate snow chances as we move into Dec. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a chance at a CAD changeover type of deal during the first 10 days of Dec. Sure looks active across the conus for the next couple weeks. That's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 21, 2016 Author Share Posted November 21, 2016 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: While it looks like the west will be favored for a while, the gradient type look with lows running west doesn't eliminate snow chances as we move into Dec. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a chance at a CAD changeover type of deal during the first 10 days of Dec. Sure looks active across the conus for the next couple weeks. That's for sure I could see this developing into a mean eastern trough with lows ejecting out of the southwest. Need timing, luck, and CAD. Could turn out decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 21, 2016 Author Share Posted November 21, 2016 31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I use WeatherBell I looked at the 12z and 18z runs from yesterday. The 2m temps are toasty for December. It is the CFS though, so if you dont like what you see, wait a run or 2 lol. Overall trend in the guidance for the long range lately has been to dump cold further west though, so who knows. Just comical how JB will always manage to locate "evidence" to back up his claims of brutal cold on the way. Don't bad mouth the CFS. Mitch will be on you in a flash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 The CFS is such garbage. Why do people even look at it? It flips constantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 DT posted his winter outlook recently, including his forecast and the progression of how he envisions the changes occurring as we move forward. His seasonal forecast makes a lot of sense, and does match what some here on the board have mentioned. Basically, best winter weather starting in early December, then more favorable after mid- December, continuing in later in December and through January. February the pattern changes and turns warmer. Mentions the Siberian cold and the PV heading that way is a major negative, including the enhanced Pacific jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Don't bad mouth the CFS. Mitch will be on you in a flash. You'd have a hard time finding one of my posts quoting the CFS lately. Too many other lr products these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 21, 2016 Author Share Posted November 21, 2016 53 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You'd have a hard time finding one of my posts quoting the CFS lately. Too many other lr products these days. True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Does anyone have confidence in any lr forecast that has been put out this year? To me this winter looks like a door to door equal chance of anything type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Does anyone have confidence in any lr forecast that has been put out this year? To me this winter looks like a door to door equal chance of anything type of deal. I'm with you. I have no confidence in any long raange forecast. Even the first week of December looks sketchy with the European ens mean from last night having the tough in the west and and Paacific that argues against getting enough cold air south for any chance of accumulating snow while todays GEFS ensemlbe mean has the trough in the west bug enough ridging over AK to suggest some cold air might be able to make it though it still looks to average near or slightly above normal for temps in the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 41 degrees at work, but everyone acts like it's the second Ice Age. DC people seem to be thin blooded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 1 hour ago, usedtobe said: I'm with you. I have no confidence in any long raange forecast. Even the first week of December looks sketchy with the European ens mean from last night having the tough in the west and and Paacific that argues against getting enough cold air south for any chance of accumulating snow while todays GEFS ensemlbe mean has the trough in the west bug enough ridging over AK to suggest some cold air might be able to make it though it still looks to average near or slightly above normal for temps in the mean. Yea, I'm thinking second week of Dec earliest right now for any real chances in our area. Storm cycles in the intermountain west rarely last for more than 3 weeks tops without a bluebird break in the action. It makes sense in my head that a ridge will build in the west in a couple weeks. But that's a total guess fraught with peril. lol. Hopfully the weeklies tonight have the same idea without a dumpster fire thrown in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Nice chance for a severe outbreak in the south central states with the MR pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Weeklies roll the pattern forward like I was thinking. +pna/-epo/-ao/-nao week 3 into 4. Then relax/reload a couple times after. Can't complain much about the run and certainly not a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies roll the pattern forward like I was thinking. +pna/-epo/-ao/-nao week 3 into 4. Then relax/reload a couple times after. Can't complain much about the run and certainly not a disaster. Was just looking at it and agree. Not bad. Looks like a nice setup for a cold 8-10 day period centered around mid Dec, followed by moderation, then maybe some cold for Xmas, then another rinse/repeat beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: 41 degrees at work, but everyone acts like it's the second Ice Age. DC people seem to be thin blooded. That wind though, goes right through you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Was just looking at it and agree. Not bad. Looks like a nice setup for a cold 8-10 day period centered around mid Dec, followed by moderation, then maybe some cold for Xmas, then another rinse/repeat beyond that. I could see how someone who expects door to door winter weather all Dec might complain but in reality, it was a pretty "normal" pattern and would offer chances. Something we haven't had many of in Dec the last couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I could see how someone who expects door to door winter weather all Dec might complain but in reality, it was a pretty "normal" pattern and would offer chances. Something we haven't had many of in Dec the last couple years. lol we rarely do wall to wall cold in Dec so anyone expecting that is not in touch with reality. And you said it, after the last 2, I will take normal and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies roll the pattern forward like I was thinking. +pna/-epo/-ao/-nao week 3 into 4. Then relax/reload a couple times after. Can't complain much about the run and certainly not a disaster. Bob can you post this in the SE thread please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I could see how someone who expects door to door winter weather all Dec might complain but in reality, it was a pretty "normal" pattern and would offer chances. Something we haven't had many of in Dec the last couple years. I am thinking our first chance for real snow (not snowTV) will be in the Dec 5th to Dec 10th range... nothing much, but enough for us to track it 25/7 Weeklies looked decent as you said and its LR GFS... but I like the pattern that it shows/is moving toward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Well we have half of the equation on the 00z GFS at 222 Coastal plain runner... if only we had some cold air nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 For those worried, myself included, about the persistence of the PV being locked in over Asia could we possibly be seeing a split bringing part of it into N America? Edit: Can't post the 50mb from weatherbell which shows higher height anomalies squeezing the PV from both sides bringing an extension of it i towards our side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 42 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: For those worried, myself included, about the persistence of the PV being locked in over Asia could we possibly be seeing a split bringing part of it into N America? Edit: Can't post the 50mb from weatherbell which shows higher height anomalies squeezing the PV from both sides bringing an extension of it i towards our side of the globe. Looking at the 10 mb temp anomalies on the GEFS, the PV is not exactly a cold beast. It does stay fairly intact throughout the run though, and seems to become more consolidated towards day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 14 hours ago, Amped said: Nice chance for a severe outbreak in the south central states with the MR pattern. Exciting times. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 12 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: lol we rarely do wall to wall cold in Dec so anyone expecting that is not in touch with reality. And you said it, after the last 2, I will take normal and run. I know you have someone specific in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looking at the 10 mb temp anomalies on the GEFS, the PV is not exactly a cold beast. It does stay fairly intact throughout the run though, and seems to become more consolidated towards day 15. Yep, pretty big differences between the GFS and its ensembles. Here's hoping that the Op is leading the way and signaling a possible change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Maybe the Pac will improve. Seems like a -EPO is shown on some of the models in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 There's a lot of things to worry about for the next 2-4 weeks. I'm not sure the strat pv is one of them. At least not in my mind anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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